Felger says Bills exposed Pats

[Opus417]

Conventional wisdom these days seem to be that the first week of the season isn't necessarily indicative of how good a team is going to be that season. Last night on FSN-New England Felger stated that the team has weaknesses and pales in comparison to the SB teams of the past few years. I had some time on the train yesterday and this morning, so I decided to look up data to see if I could determine if conventional wisdom was true.

I looked at each season's SB Champs since 1990, and went back to see the results of their first game in that season (i.e. Pats won SB in 2003, but lost to Buf 31-0 in week 1 of that year) to see if there was any pattern.

Since 1990 these teams had a collective "first game" record of 12-4, with 411 pts for and 227 against, which is pretty impressive. What is even more impressive is that the avg. margin of victory was 20.5 pts. This could lead one to think that the eventual champ for this season is much more likely to be a team that blew out its week 1 opponent (i.e. Baltimore) than a team who managed to win close (i.e. NE or Seattle).

Something jumped out at me when I looked at the numbers, however. In 2000, the results seem to have changed. From 2000 through 2005, these same teams have only posted "first game" records of 3-3, with 114 pf and 111 pa. The average margin of victory was 15.3 pts, a good margin. The avg. margin of defeat, however, was an almost equally impressive 14.3 pts.

The second sample (6 yrs.) is pretty small. The avg. margin of loss is skewed by the 2003 Buffalo debacle, however this is balanced out by Pittsburgh's 34-7 win over Tennessee last year. The three wins came against teams which went on to have combined records of 25-23 at season's end. The three losses were to teams which went on to post a combined record of 21-27 at season's end.

My explanation for the change in the last six seasons has to do with the salary cap and its impact on free agency. I don't know what year the current system was put in place, but I believe it took place in the late 90's, which is why I believe the numbers changed so radically in 2000.

I've concluded that you can't draw any conclusion yet on any team in the NFL, despite Felger's claims. After 2001 and 2003 Pats fans know that too well, even if he doesn't. My other conclusion is that Felger has become another agenda-driven hack looking for ratings like the clowns at WEEI, but that is a whole other post. Too bad for fans that Tom Curran is gone from the Pats beat.

As an aside, I don't ever remember teams playing starters in the preseason as little as they do now. The unpredictable opening performances of the eventual SB winners may also be due to this. It may also be the reason why Belichick and Parcells long for the old days of trainnig camp and preseason...

BTW - my source for this info was the ESPN football encyclopedia. If anyone's interested, please feel free to double check my math. Thanks.

[JamesLavin]

I did a statistical analysis back to the 1960s and saw that the salary cap has definitely increased the randomness of NFL outcomes. Teams today are far less unequal than in the past. When you equalize talent, the outcome of games becomes harder to predict and the outcome of any single game is more of a crapshoot. A corollary to that is that you should not draw too strong a conclusion from any given game because random factors (did the QB get enough sleep; did the coordinators come up with clever schemes; fluke fumbles and tipped-ball INTs; etc.) play a larger role today in determining outcomes than they did in the past when teams had vastly different talent levels.

--James

[BizarroAnnihilus]

It's pretty tough trying to predict an entire season's worth of results based upon one game. That being said, more often than not (in the NFL), it's pretty easy to predict that a team is NOT going to win the Superbowl and you'll have made the right prediction.

[cka203]

Originally posted by Annihilus
It's pretty tough trying to predict an entire season's worth of results based upon one game. That being said, more often than not (in the NFL), it's pretty easy to predict that a team is NOT going to win the Superbowl and you'll have made the right prediction.

For my first pick, I'll say that Green Bay is NOT gonna win the SB!

[RoadGrader]

If memory serves, Felger came on the local Boston scene as a print-only beat writer primarily assigned to the Pats.

after a fashion did he also become a radio and TV guest-opinionist until finally morphing into a show-Host in those mediums.

I submit that publicly speaking about the Pats for 15-20 hours per week as opposed to writing maybe 5 pieces a week breeds the kind of talking-out-the-ass stuff he's been foisting on us.

He can't help himself, he's got too much time to fill and controversy, warranted or not, helps fill.

[if you're lurking]I'll state it again: I luvs you Felgie, but JHC

[sonsofkraftybob]

Felger is a dumbass.

In Sundays Herald he had Denver as the #1 team in football.

LOL.....that my good Felger....was getting exposed.

Ok, I'll edit...

Just cuz I called you a dumbass Felgie...doesn't mean that I don't enjoy the media whoring that you do. I love watching you look like a trollop hustling down the the BLVD from the herald, to ESPN, to the Foxsports show with Dumb and Dumber to the talking heads on Sunday Night with that snazzy looking sportscoat and jean ensamble you dig.

But Denver....#1 in the league......with Uncle Rico tossing the rock?

Dumbass

[sonsofkraftybob]

Originally posted by sonsofkraftybob
Felger is a dumbass.

In Sundays Herald he had Denver as the #1 team in football.

LOL.....that my good Felger....was getting exposed.

Ok, I'll edit...

Just cuz I called you a dumbass Felgie...doesn't mean that I don't enjoy the media whoring that you do. I love watching you look like a trollop hustling down the the BLVD from the herald, to ESPN, to the Foxsports show with Dumb and Dumber to the talking heads on Sunday Night with that snazzy looking sportscoat and jean ensamble you dig. And the line about..."Have any of you guys been divorced???? Well I have and..." (priceless Felgie!)

But Denver....#1 in the league......with Uncle Rico tossing the rock?

Dumbass

[chef]

does anyone care what felgar or borges writes expect Dashoe?

[Major A$$hole*]

Sonsofkraftybob,
Did you just quote yourelf?
Whats next?
Are you going to refer to yourself in the 3rd person?
I think Anihilius has that market cornered and might get territorial if you do.

[Major A$$hole*]

Originally posted by chef
does anyone care what felgar or borges writes expect Dashoe?

No but it is still fun to watch him make an ass out of himself.

[Wandering Athol]

FALSE: You can draw rock-solid conclusions about teams' playoff chances after Game 1 of the regular season.

TRUE: The Bills did expose what will be the two weaknesses of the Pats as currently constituted: lack of a legitimate, consistent outside receiving threat and suspect linebacker play.

The Pats made the proper half-time adjustments in the game and won. The Bills.....did not. Very simple. Does it come as any surprise that Belichick and his staff are better than Jauron and company?

[DarrylStingley]

I'm just amazed that Felger found any time to write anything other than his one-trick pony line: "The Patriots think they have to win every negotiation and it's not true, dammit, they have to put a good team on the field!"

If he says or writes that again....