Has Gostkowski Become Too Expensive?

[chevss454]

I've said for over a month that his 83% FG percentage should not guarantee his roster spot when he's one of the highest paid players on the roster. That's not a good enough value for me so how can it be for BB?

This article bolsters that notion by making in depth comparisons with other kickers around the NFL and determines that Ghost is 'average' as a kicker.

The NFL’s Kicker Inefficiency

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Exhibit A: Stephen Gostkowski

When he was a rookie in 2006, Stephen Gostkowski had some incredibly large shoes to fill after being chosen in the fourth round (118^th overall) by the New England Patriots. He did a reasonably solid job of replacing departed legend Adam Vinatieri, and even climbed as high as seventh in field goal percentage during the 2008 season, when he hit 90% of his attempts. Unfortunately for Gostkowski, the current NFL landscape dictates that he deserves neither his current salary, nor a roster spot with the Patriots heading into the 2013 season.
Since signing a relatively sizable five year contract in 2010 Gostkowski has been decidedly mediocre. Last season he ranked 20^th in field goal percentage, hitting a middling 82.9% of his attempts. Nine other kickers, six of whom were not even drafted, converted at least 90% of their field goal tries – led by the Washington Redskins’ Kai Forbath’s 94.4%. Back in 2011, Gostkowski ranked 14^th in the NFL with an 84.8% accuracy rate. The prior season was far worse, seeing him converting attempts at a woeful 76.9% clip – which was “good” for 30^th in the league.
There is a misguided narrative surrounding Gostkowski, parroted by many Patriots fans, that describes his powerful leg as producing advantageous field position due to a disproportionate number of touchbacks. That is simply not true. New England ranked a mediocre 17^th in the NFL in percentage of kickoffs that went for touchbacks in 2012. They were 19^th in 2011, and 15^th back in 2010. Gostkowski tore his quad that season, and it potentially has sapped some of his leg strength – which does make sense when you factor in their rankings in 2009 (10^{th and 2008 (9th. Whatever the case may be, the Patriots are not gaining any field position advantage by sticking with Gostkowski for kickoff duties.}
In and of itself, having a middle of the road field goal kicker is not the end of the world – but it becomes a misappropriation of resources when he does not perform up to his salary. Gostkowski is currently in line to be the fourth highest paid kicker in the NFL next season with a base salary of $2.5 million. His cap charge will be $3.4 million, which is currently the seventh highest figure on the New England roster. He is scheduled to make $2.9 million in salary in 2014, the last year of his contract, and will count $3.8 million against the cap.
Forbath, an in-season signing who was not drafted, collected just $390,000 for leading the league in field goal percentage. Dallas Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, also undrafted, ranked as the second most accurate (93.5%) and made $465,000. Rookie Blair Walsh of the Minnesota Vikings, a sixth round pick, was fourth in the NFL (92.1%), and cost just $390,000 – with a bonus of less than $30,000. Another rookie kicker, Justin Tucker of the Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, went undrafted and carried the same bargain basement $390,000 price tag in return for his 90.9% success rate (7^th in the NFL). Nick Novak had a $700,000 salary, was a free agent pickup for the Chargers, and hit nine out of every 10 field goals – finishing as the 10^th most accurate kicker last year.
A quality kicker is a lot easier to find simply because there are more quality kickers available these days. As a whole, the NFL has gotten much better at kicking field goals. In the early 1990s, the overall league average was in the mid-to-low 70s when it came to percentage of attempts converted (see table below for year-by-year results). That typical yearly percentage of made field goals rose into the high 70s during the late 1990s, where it remained during the early 2000s. NFL kickers broke through the 80.0 percent barrier for the first time in 2004 (80.8%), and the percentage has risen from there – including four consecutively higher figures during the last four seasons, culminating in 2012’s rate of 83.9%.
Over the last couple of seasons there are a handful of instances that tell you Belichick might not have full faith in his kicker. During the 2012 and 2011 regular season and playoffs the Patriots faced 27 fourth down situations between their opponents’ 20 and 35 yard lines with more than three yards to go for a first down and the score being within two touchdowns. None of these situations took place with them trailing so late in the game that a successful field goal attempt would have damaged their chances of winning. On five of those plays Belichick decided to go for it or to punt despite the teams being within a touchdown of each other. Fans will remember two such questionable punts that occurred in their playoff loss to the Ravens in the AFC Championship.

With the NFL’s salary cap not rising at the same rate as many of the longer term contracts on most teams’ ledgers, finding cost cutting opportunities is more vital than ever. By getting rid of Gostkowski now, New England will incur a $1.6 million penalty due to an acceleration of the prorated cap charges from his signing bonus originally scheduled to be tacked onto his base salaries the next two seasons. However, if they can find just a league-average kicker to replace him with they would be no worse off on the field. They can then use their $1.8 million in cap savings to pay for that new kicker and have more than a million left over to use on an actual difference maker. They would also free themselves of $3.8 million on a 2014 salary cap that is once again not projected to rise very much at all.

http://www.profootballrosters.com/20...-inefficiency/

At the very least, I expect some good competition for Ghost in camp and I'd almost be surprised if Ghost were not replaced.

[HSanders]

Wow that's an eye opener, chevss.
Definitely food for thought.

[chevss454]

Originally Posted by HSanders

Wow that's an eye opener, chevss.
Definitely food for thought.

It won't be a very popular topic but BB doesn't fall in love with players. He wants value & sees every contract through the eyes of an economist.

[Jaric]

I feel ya Chevss. We're paying quite a bit for our kicker as well and I don't think it's worth it

[grog]

Originally Posted by Jaric

I feel ya Chevss. We're paying quite a bit for our kicker as well and I don't think it's worth it

So you guys cut AV and we cut Ghost and we sign each others kickers for little more than vet minimum. AV comes back and we win another superbowl and all the credit for previous three move from Brady to AV. Ghost goes to Indy and gets liquored up to give A Luck a taste of Colts past fortunes. It seems cosmically plausible.

[Jaric]

Originally Posted by grog

So you guys cut AV and we cut Ghost and we sign each others kickers for little more than vet minimum. AV comes back and we win another superbowl and all the credit for previous three move from Brady to AV. Ghost goes to Indy and gets liquored up to give A Luck a taste of Colts past fortunes. It seems cosmically plausible.

If we cut AV I'd prefer to just have Pat Mcafee handle kicking duties

[RonBrace]

I'd prefer they focus on getting a KR first. I'm tired of McCourty bringing it out and not getting to the 20.

[MaineMan]

Originally Posted by RonBrace

I'd prefer they focus on getting a KR first. I'm tired of McCourty bringing it out and not getting to the 20.

Demps might be able to cover that. I addition to his Olympic-level straight-line speed, he needs to have enough lateral quicks/agility to make the first guy miss, of course. If he can do that, though, he ought to be able to provide some great field position. On speed alone, though, he might well be able to get it out to the 25 or so on a fairly regular basis if he gets any blocking at all.

[gomezcat]

I have to say that I am nervous when Gost lines up for anything other than a chip shot. I simply don't expect him to hit the really important ones any more.