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Old 06-16-2016, 07:32 AM   #1
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Brexit. Will they, won't they? Should they?

The vote is coming very soon....I think it has greater implications than most people realize.

I used to think there is no way Britain would leave and surrender their influence over other nations. Now..I am not so sure.

I believe the people of Britain are largely in favor of leaving by a majority...but the government and influenctial lobbies absolutely do not, this would destroy decades of One World Government progress, and maybe worse.

I think Britain should leave the EU, if they want to protect their own sovereignty. I think the people will vote in favor of leaving....but I am not sure it will be counted that way.

I am not saying the election will be fixed, but I think there is a significant chance of it.

If Britain leaves the EU, it will be a catastrophic blow to the EU and One World Government types...because I think other nations will suddenly take up the question whether THEY should leave as well....I am looking at Germany most particularly.

This Brexit vote within the EU looks and smells a lot like the United States in 1850's....and Britain is South Carolina.

If Brexit goes forward, the EU will have to decide if saving the Union is of paramount importance.

I doubt the EU would attack Britain any time in the near future....but they may very well draw up plans to prevent other nations from following Britain's example.

Am I predicting Brexit leading to a new hot war in Europe? No.....but it is a distinct possibility.

If Britain leaves, I would expect some kind of mortal threat to be introduced to the EU within a few years that would consolidate power in Brussels and provide for a common EU defense force under the command of Brussels directly "to deal with the threat"....but the reality will be that the defense force will be designed to provide a military coup of non-cooperative governments in an EU state.

They need to do this, anyway, to prepare for the coming economic meltdown, but they are not ready for Brexit...that may accelerate the dissolution of the EU faster than they can consolidate it.

Either way, expect onerous terms to be levied against Britain, and subsequent trade wars to make an example of Britain if any other malcontents get the notion that they want to be sovereign as well. This will spark trade wars and currency wars.

Or.....I could be wrong. I am a doomsday kind of guy....but if Brexit passes, it does smack of pre Civil War United States, and pre-World War Europe...and I don't like it.

I hope Brexit passes, I hope the EU in Brussels lacks the backbone to do anything about it. That would be my preference.
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Old 06-16-2016, 07:43 AM   #2
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Will they? I don't think so, but it is too close to call with any thing other than gut feeling.

Should they? Depends on where you sit on the question of National Sovereignty v Trade, not my country, not my laws or culture so I'm just not sure.

Brussels will absolutely stick it to Britain on Trade if they leave, as a way of threatening other potential exits. I don't see your other nightmare scenarios playing out. Maybe of the EU had 75 years of existence (like the US heading in the 1850s), but no, the EU won't be raising an army in the near term. Hell they don't have the money to deal with the refugee crisis, an army costs real money.

Will it lead to a shooting war? Only if the EU collapses, which is an actual possibility, but not for at least 10-15 years and most likely 25 or so.
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Old 06-16-2016, 07:47 AM   #3
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Britain will vote to remain. As they should.

Edit: And if I am wrong, there's about zero chance Brussels would do anything of military nature against a nuclear power that is vital to intra-European trade.
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Old 06-16-2016, 07:51 AM   #4
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It'd be easier for me to buy a house in London if Brexit happens, though. So there's that

Fwiw, the people in this country that want Brexit are people outside of major cities who feel like the British identity is eroding. The problem is that the identity conception is flawed to start with. These people think the world is still pink and Britain is still an empire.
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Old 06-16-2016, 08:36 AM   #5
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It'd be easier for me to buy a house in London if Brexit happens, though. So there's that
How so?

I'll be in Oxford this fall...it will be interesting to meet some of the folks, post Brexit vote.
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Old 06-16-2016, 08:39 AM   #6
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How so?

I'll be in Oxford this fall...it will be interesting to meet some of the folks, post Brexit vote.
House prices will plummet for a while if Britain exits as it'll drive out a lot of the foreign capital that's inflating the London house market.
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Old 06-16-2016, 09:12 AM   #7
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House prices will plummet for a while if Britain exits as it'll drive out a lot of the foreign capital that's inflating the London house market.
I wonder about that, one possible outcome is London could be a "safe haven" for people concerned about the EU and it's challenges. PIIGS are not all out of the woods yet and the refugee crisis isn't helping, particularly "G".
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Old 06-16-2016, 09:15 AM   #8
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I wonder about that, one possible outcome is London could be a "safe haven" for people concerned about the EU and it's challenges. PIIGS are not all out of the woods yet and the refugee crisis isn't helping, particularly "G".
Most analysts I talk to about the subject agree that the money will in large part move elsewhere in the short term and then make a long term return.
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Old 06-16-2016, 09:53 AM   #9
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I wonder about that, one possible outcome is London could be a "safe haven" for people concerned about the EU and it's challenges. PIIGS are not all out of the woods yet and the refugee crisis isn't helping, particularly "G".
If there is anything we can learn from what Europe is dealing with right now is that we need to bring more than just pure intentions to the table when we discuss immigration and what to do with these refugees.
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:18 AM   #10
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If I were an Englishman, my vote would be to leave the EU.
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:24 AM   #11
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England letting Brussels decide their immigration policy is like the US letting Canada control our immigration.

I just can't imagine how people accept that, regardless of what the policies actually are.
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:34 AM   #12
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England letting Brussels decide their immigration policy is like the US letting Canada control our immigration.

I just can't imagine how people accept that, regardless of what the policies actually are.
A chill just went up my spine thinking about our immigration policies in Canada's hands.
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:48 AM   #13
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A chill just went up my spine thinking about our immigration policies in Canada's hands.
Bitches.

Just let me in and I'll be happy!
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:49 AM   #14
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A chill just went up my spine thinking about our immigration policies in Canada's hands.
What's wrong with that, eh?
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Old 06-16-2016, 10:51 AM   #15
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England letting Brussels decide their immigration policy is like the US letting Canada control our immigration.
Or Texas allowing Washington DC to control it's immigration?

I don't see much difference - power is usurped to a central body, only it's in Europe.
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