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Old 07-18-2014, 03:40 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by deec77 View Post
Is that for real?

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Yes it is
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Old 07-18-2014, 04:42 PM   #32
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Yes it is
Really sad .:face palm:

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Old 07-18-2014, 05:01 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post


In my view, I don't see any way you could move these things around without getting spotted in a highly surveilled area like eastern Ukraine.
So you think that someone has 100% situational awareness, 24/7, across the entire region?

Just what makes you think that every single nook and cranny is observed 24/7?

More importantly if we do have such a capability, why the frack would we let the rest of the world know that?

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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
I would dispute this.

If you know the trajectory of the plane, and you know where the plane was struck, you can get a decent approximation of the direction and velocity of the missile.
No you can't.

The SA-11 missile travels at Mach 3. It has a range of 30 Km. It can engage from any direction so all you can do is draw a 30 KM circle around the impact point and say it was launched somewhere within that circle.

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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
Also, detecting missiles is old, old technology. That's how Patriot missile systems work, or the Aegis system, or Israel's Iron Dome.

Intercepting missiles is the hard part, but the tracking technology is essentially old hat.

Not to mention that the US has drones operating in the region, and AWACS platforms as well...and satellites.
What makes you think that anyone is deploying systems that are used to track missiles?

Of all the things you mention, only the AWACS would have the slightest likelihood of tracking a SAM.

However, since they are flying over Poland, Romania, they are 300+ miles away and so anything in eastern Ukraine is out of range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
The data is there. We will have the precise trajectory of the missile. The only question is whether the data agrees with policy.
Actually, I doubt the data is there.

Except maybe these bits.

A Ukrainian An-26 transport was shot down on Monday.

Quote:
A Ukrainian military transport aircraft has been shot down in the east, amid fighting with pro-Russian separatist rebels, Ukrainian officials say.

They say the An-26 plane was hit at an altitude of 6,500m (21,325ft).
And in case you think that the BBC is not credible, TASS confirmed the downing.

So it would seem they have the ability to shoot down aircraft at relatively high altitude.

Then there was the statement that was put up on an insurgent website and subsequently deleted.

Quote:
A rebel leader for the pro-Russian insurgency fighting against the Ukraine government claims responsibility for the shooting down a plane at about the same time that the Malaysia Flight 17 went down over Ukraine.

Pro-Russia rebel leader Igor Girken, also known as Igor Strelkov/ CBS News
"We warned you not to fly in our skies," said a web posting, subsequently taken down, purported to be from Igor Girkin, widely known by his nom de guerre Igor Strelkov.

Girkin is the defense minister of the separatist republic that it is battling to enforce Russia's hold on the Ukraine. He is one of the most well-known faces of the pro-Russia insurgency in the Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities identify him as a veteran of the Russian military intelligence agency.

In a cached web version of a social web site page obtained by CBS News, Girkin quoted his militia's claims that they had shot down a military plane. The time stamp on the initial post was 5:50 Moscow time July 17, 2014.
If they shot down a different plane, then why did they delete the posting? Why didn't they claim they shot down another Ukrainian military aircraft and that someone else shot down MH17?

Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is someone amongst the separatists screwed the pooch, shot down MH17 thinking it was another Ukrainian aircraft, and now they're trying to cover their ass.
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Old 07-18-2014, 07:25 PM   #34
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Whist I'm not defending anyone's actions, I wonder if it is at all possible that the Transport was possibly the original target only for the radar to instead acquire MH17 and for the operators to misinterpret it as the Transport?

That or it's a wilful disregard for international law and it was a deliberate attack on the Airliner.
I just don't see how an attack on the airliner would have any strategic value unless it was target practice.
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Old 07-18-2014, 07:27 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
I didn't debunk it. I just want to see evidence or proof of it.

I know for a fact Ukraine and Russia have them.

I don't rule out the possibility, since much of the Separatist forces are defected Ukrainian military, it is very possible they could have them just by default.

But, if that's the case, then intelligence services should have known about it.

I want to see evidence that the accused party, the separatists, actually have the weapon.

And, for the record, I don't care how things turn out in Ukraine. I just don't want the US involved. It's not our fight, and it's a bad spot strategically for us to pick one.

As for whether I am on Ukraine's side or the separatist side? Neither. I don't care.

But I do know that our government wants public approval to get involved, and whether by design or not, our government will exploit this atrocity to best effect in an effort to manufacture consent for American involvement in a Ukrainian war.

Just like how I've been hearing about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and Iran are just months away.......for the last 20 years.
I have zero belief that our government intends to enter into the fray.
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Old 07-18-2014, 07:30 PM   #36
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Yes it is
That was fantastic.
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Old 07-18-2014, 08:27 PM   #37
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I have zero belief that our government intends to enter into the fray.
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What in the last 11 years would make you believe that?
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 07-18-2014, 08:43 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
So you think that someone has 100% situational awareness, 24/7, across the entire region?

Just what makes you think that every single nook and cranny is observed 24/7?

More importantly if we do have such a capability, why the frack would we let the rest of the world know that?



No you can't.

The SA-11 missile travels at Mach 3. It has a range of 30 Km. It can engage from any direction so all you can do is draw a 30 KM circle around the impact point and say it was launched somewhere within that circle.



What makes you think that anyone is deploying systems that are used to track missiles?

Of all the things you mention, only the AWACS would have the slightest likelihood of tracking a SAM.

However, since they are flying over Poland, Romania, they are 300+ miles away and so anything in eastern Ukraine is out of range.



Actually, I doubt the data is there.

Except maybe these bits.

A Ukrainian An-26 transport was shot down on Monday.



And in case you think that the BBC is not credible, TASS confirmed the downing.

So it would seem they have the ability to shoot down aircraft at relatively high altitude.

Then there was the statement that was put up on an insurgent website and subsequently deleted.



If they shot down a different plane, then why did they delete the posting? Why didn't they claim they shot down another Ukrainian military aircraft and that someone else shot down MH17?

Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is someone amongst the separatists screwed the pooch, shot down MH17 thinking it was another Ukrainian aircraft, and now they're trying to cover their ass.
You never heard of spy satellites?

Infrared spy satellites monitor 24/7, and can track any surface to air missile.

In addition, electromagnetic spectrum satellites can detect and pinpoint any radar emissions, and identify the source, location, and even possible the specific model of a launcher's targeting radar, and the missile's homing radar.

Of course the data is there.

How do you think we know when other countries do rocket launches, or how we expect to be warned of a nuclear attack?

You think we have a bunch of CIA guys in the hills with binoculars?

We have geosynchronous spy satellites that detect emissions.

This is the 21st century, OPT. These missile systems are Soviet Era.

Launching one of these missiles would be like a fireworks display to our surveillance satellites, not to mention whatever drones we have running around.
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Old 07-18-2014, 10:08 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
What in the last 11 years would make you believe that?
The fact that we're fvcking broke as a result of those last 11 years.
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Old 07-19-2014, 05:31 AM   #40
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A couple of points of interest reported on Aljazeera this morning..

1. They showed footage of the Russian separatists showing off a BUK launcher a couple of weeks ago. That is confirmation that they do have them, or at least 1.

2. Flight 17 flew through Ukraine daily, but this flight was about 50 miles north of it's regular flight plan.
The plane normally flies through the SE corner, just outside of Crimea.
This time it's flight path took it right through the heart of the conflict.

3. International monitors have just arrived at the crash site. Bodies were already being removed by the separatist forces, and their positions flagged and photographed before removal.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 07-19-2014, 01:21 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
You never heard of spy satellites?

Infrared spy satellites monitor 24/7, and can track any surface to air missile.

In addition, electromagnetic spectrum satellites can detect and pinpoint any radar emissions, and identify the source, location, and even possible the specific model of a launcher's targeting radar, and the missile's homing radar.

Of course the data is there.

How do you think we know when other countries do rocket launches, or how we expect to be warned of a nuclear attack?

You think we have a bunch of CIA guys in the hills with binoculars?

We have geosynchronous spy satellites that detect emissions.

This is the 21st century, OPT. These missile systems are Soviet Era.

Launching one of these missiles would be like a fireworks display to our surveillance satellites, not to mention whatever drones we have running around.
You don't know what you're talking about.

We don't have IR/radar/visual surveillance 24/7 over every spot on the planet.

Those spy satellites are in low earth polar orbit. Their orbital period is about 90 minutes and since the earth rotates underneath them, about once a day they cross any given point on the planet.

To have 24/7 coverage over the entire planet, you'd need to have them separated by however far they can see off axis.

Let's suppose they can see a swath of ~15 degrees. That's the width of a typical time zone s o it's a very generous assumption.

So you'd need 24 of them scattered around the circumference. But then, you'd need to have more in the same orbit to get coverage along that orbital path continuously, so you'd need one every 15 degrees that way. so that's 24 satellites along each orbital path.

In total, you'd need 576 satellites to do this, more if they can't cover 15 degrees.

We don't have that many.

As far as ELINT satellites, yes, they are in geosynchronous but they primarily monitor communication and are not radar tracking.

If they were, then they would have a pretty hard time pinpointing the source of any signal from such an altitude ~23,000 miles. You'd need a very very good resolution and have more than one bird have a line of sight to the target area to do that, and I don't think that exists.

As far as detecting the thermal plume of the SAM. An ICBM has a much larger thermal signature, that is sustained for a longer period of time.

Of course, why would we be pointing that detection system at the Ukraine? They got rid of their ICBMs back in '94. That was the whole idea behind the Budapest Memorandum

So no there isn't any certainty that we have data about the launch. We might, if specific assets were deployed locally to monitor for such things, but it isn't certain that we do.
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Old 07-20-2014, 10:12 AM   #42
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You don't know what you're talking about.

We don't have IR/radar/visual surveillance 24/7 over every spot on the planet.

Those spy satellites are in low earth polar orbit. Their orbital period is about 90 minutes and since the earth rotates underneath them, about once a day they cross any given point on the planet.

To have 24/7 coverage over the entire planet, you'd need to have them separated by however far they can see off axis.

Let's suppose they can see a swath of ~15 degrees. That's the width of a typical time zone s o it's a very generous assumption.

So you'd need 24 of them scattered around the circumference. But then, you'd need to have more in the same orbit to get coverage along that orbital path continuously, so you'd need one every 15 degrees that way. so that's 24 satellites along each orbital path.

In total, you'd need 576 satellites to do this, more if they can't cover 15 degrees.

We don't have that many.

As far as ELINT satellites, yes, they are in geosynchronous but they primarily monitor communication and are not radar tracking.

If they were, then they would have a pretty hard time pinpointing the source of any signal from such an altitude ~23,000 miles. You'd need a very very good resolution and have more than one bird have a line of sight to the target area to do that, and I don't think that exists.

As far as detecting the thermal plume of the SAM. An ICBM has a much larger thermal signature, that is sustained for a longer period of time.

Of course, why would we be pointing that detection system at the Ukraine? They got rid of their ICBMs back in '94. That was the whole idea behind the Budapest Memorandum

So no there isn't any certainty that we have data about the launch. We might, if specific assets were deployed locally to monitor for such things, but it isn't certain that we do.
1. We have 24/7 surveillance on "hot spots"

2. "Geosynchronous" satellites stay over ONE spot indefinitely. That's how GPS works.

3. Infrared Signature - http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/sbirs.html

http://www.afspc.af.mil/library/fact....asp?fsID=3675

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capab...s/default.aspx

http://spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av037/brouchure.pdf

Three of the four SBIRS satellites, SBIRS GEO 1 (2011-019A) and SBIRS GEO 2 (2013-011A) in geostationary orbit and USA 184 (2006-027A) in HEO, had coverage of the area where MH17 went down at the time this happened (17 July 14:15 GMT, see image above).

http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2014...7-tragedy.html


4. Radar Signature - http://www.nsa.gov/about/_files/cryp...misc/elint.pdf

http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB392/


As you can see, OPT, it is YOU, who has no idea what you're talking about.

Welcome to the 21st century.

When government officials give that line about spy satellites only passing overhead for brief intervals to cover an area, that's bullshit, and if it were true, they wouldn't announce it.

I am also surprised that you, I presume, know they can pick up cell phone transmissions via satellite, but you think they can't pick up a SAM missile transmission, for some reason I don't understand.

Last edited by Baron Samedi; 07-20-2014 at 10:22 AM..
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Old 07-20-2014, 10:28 AM   #43
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2. "Geosynchronous" satellites stay over ONE spot indefinitely. That's how GPS works.


As you can see, OPT, it is YOU, who has no idea what you're talking about.

Welcome to the 21st century.
GPS satellites are NOT in geosynchronous orbits. Geosynchronous orbits are characterized by having an orbital period of 1436 minutes (just about 24 hours, or one revolution per day). Geosynchronous satellites are usually (but not always) in circular orbits over the equator with an inclination close to zero.

GPS satellites have semi-synchronous orbits with a period of just under 720 minutes (about 2 revs/day). And they're at an inclination of about 54 degrees.

They're definitely not geosynchronous.

Welcome to 1995 (year when GPS went fully operational).
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Old 07-20-2014, 12:41 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
1. We have 24/7 surveillance on "hot spots"
With satellites?

How do they do that?

Geosynchronous orbits are over the equator and they don't move. They are also at ~22,000 miles up so their ability to do visual/IR/Radar tracking is quite limited.

There's a reason the spy satellites are in low earth orbit.

You simply can't park a satellite in low earth orbit over any given point on the planet.

That's simple physics.

Yes, we can fly U2's, drones and other things in a region should we want to observe what's going on, but they don't have 24/7 coverage over as large an area as Eastern Ukraine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
2. "Geosynchronous" satellites stay over ONE spot indefinitely. That's how GPS works.
No that's not how GPS works.

As Tiproast pointed out they are not in geosynchronous orbit, but in medium orbit

You have to have multiple satellites in range to get a reading. They send out a fixed signal, using a precise clock to synchronize their signals. Your receiver get's the signals, works out how long it took to get to you and so knows the distance to the satellite. By drawing multiple lines, and knowing you're near the surface of the earth, it figures out where you must be.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
3. Infrared Signature - http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/sbirs.html

http://www.afspc.af.mil/library/fact....asp?fsID=3675

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capab...s/default.aspx

http://spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av037/brouchure.pdf

Three of the four SBIRS satellites, SBIRS GEO 1 (2011-019A) and SBIRS GEO 2 (2013-011A) in geostationary orbit and USA 184 (2006-027A) in HEO, had coverage of the area where MH17 went down at the time this happened (17 July 14:15 GMT, see image above).

http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2014...7-tragedy.html
Go back and reread what I wrote.
As far as detecting the thermal plume of the SAM. An ICBM has a much larger thermal signature, that is sustained for a longer period of time
I am well aware of the SBIRS system, what you don't understand is that being able to detect an ICBM or MRBM is not the same thing as being able to detect a SAM.

From your first link.
Missile Warning
SBIRS will provide reliable, unambiguous, timely and accurate warning for theater and strategic missile launches to the President of the United States, the Secretary of Defense, Combatant Commanders, and other users
The SA-11 missile has a total weight of of ~1,500 lbs or 670 Kg.

The peacekeeper weighs 96.75 tons or 193,500 pounds.

The Pershing weighs 10,263 lbs.

The simple fact of the matter is that it takes substantially more energy to launch an ICBM or MRBM than a SAM and so the IR signature is substantially larger.



The only thing those links talk about regarding ELINT of radar was monitoring the large air defense radars that form the network defense system for the USSR and others.

They recorded the location, frequencies, power, etc. of large fixed structures. This is not the same thing as tracking every single individual small scale radar emitter.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
As you can see, OPT, it is YOU, who has no idea what you're talking about.

Welcome to the 21st century.

When government officials give that line about spy satellites only passing overhead for brief intervals to cover an area, that's bullshit, and if it were true, they wouldn't announce it.
So you think nobody can simply look up and "see" the satellites?

Heck, there's an app for that Welcome to the 21st century.

And unless you think that we can make satellites hover over a particular spot ant any orbital height we want, a la Star Trek, yes, they have orbital limits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
I am also surprised that you, I presume, know they can pick up cell phone transmissions via satellite, but you think they can't pick up a SAM missile transmission, for some reason I don't understand.
There is a huge difference between intercepting a signal and knowing precisely where it originated.

Simply having recordings of the guidance signals doesn't tell us anything about where the missile originated.

You'd have to have very precise detectors to place the signal within the distance necessary to distinguish between any of the possible players.

You don't have to do that with a cell phone, because the tower tells you were the phone is.

If you are going to triangulate on the radio signal, then you need multiple sources to get a reading. If you're using geosynchronous satellites, you don't have that many that can see the same spot on the planet.

Also since they are at 22,000 miles, any error in the signal location due to the sensitivity of the detector would add a significant error to the location.

Edit:

One other thing about tracking the radar.

The SA-11 uses a Phased Array radar. It doesn't emit a signal in all directions but is directed in a narrow beam. So for any satellite to detect this signal, it would have to be near the same line of sight as between the radar and MH17. That's certainly possible, but only a very small subset of possible geometries would have this configuration.

Last edited by O_P_T; 07-20-2014 at 01:17 PM..
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Old 07-20-2014, 01:22 PM   #45
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