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Old 06-21-2012, 04:14 PM   #61
dchester
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
Do you have any idea how many dictatorships are in the world?

Dozens of them.

This World Police policy (cover for economic mercantilism) is going to bankrupt us, at the very least.

EDIT: At least the dictators keep their aggression within their own borders, for the most part.

Now that bombing people is so much easier, politically, with drones, we are bombing people every week in half a dozen countries. Ever heard the term "blowback"?
There are lots of dictators. If we had put bases in Iraq on the Syrian border, it would have been very easy for the President to say, "Do you want to be next?"

While granted, he still could, (I think it's possible he would), it would be much easier and more believable if we had bases right there.

I suspect part of our disconnect is because I think at some point we'll be fighting there again, while you probably do not feel the same. So it's understandable that you'd have less motivation for bases there.

On this aspect of the world, I'm possibly more pessimistic than you are.
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:53 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by dchester View Post
On this aspect of the world, I'm possibly more pessimistic than you are.
I am certainly not less pessimistic than you.

I just have a different criteria for "need".

My bar for "need" is much higher.

Namely, that we are under attack or imminent threat of attack, such as a declaration of war.....not "Weapons of Mass Destruction" or any such propaganda.

There must be imminent danger to Americans on American soil.

"National Interest" is the worst sort of propaganda ever devised.

In my view, of course.

We would be a lot better off with a "not our business, let us know how it turns out, and let's trade with one another" policy.

Think about it.

China is the worst abuser of human rights on the planet.

Are we better off attacking and trying to overthrow them, or just minding our own business and trading with them?

You could swap "China" for any other country..Syria, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, whatever.

Our national interest is not getting involved, and just having free trade.

If they have a revolution and overthrow the government, we congratulate them and re-establish free trade with the new government.

Meanwhile, we line our coasts with warships and bombers, close our 700 foreign military bases, and bring it on home so that our country is bristling with military might.

Pretty sure noone would fvck with us.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:55 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
They'll have an extra $500 Billion dollars a year of their own money.

They'll be able to afford their own goods and be just fine...ESPECIALLY if they unpeg their currency.

Instant Chinese Middle Class consumer...a billion of them.

This whole notion that "an export economy will collapse if the exports stop" is a fallacy.

Within a year the economy would simply restructure to a consumer economy.

That is probably the easiest economic transition an economy can make.

It is OUR economy that would collapse as the government-corporate marriage falls apart with the lack of money.

Greece is nothing compared to what would happen here.

Imagine having to cut our government budget by 600 Billion or so in a single year...without warning or planning.

EDIT: Besides....China has never been averse to shooting it's own people.

I wouldn't even consider that as a legitimate safeguard against them cutting us off from the Chinese money tit.
So if they were to cut off investing money in the US, they would be able to easily build a true "workers paradise", then I have one simple question.

Why do they invest money here?

Your post suggests they would be better off with a domestic consumer economy, so why haven't they done that?

They wouldn't have to withdraw any money form the US, simply make that switch and boom Happy joy club!

So why haven't they done this?

Well I can think of a few reasons.

For there to be "billion" Chinese middle class, they would have to be paid a whole lot more than there are now, especially since there are 1.3B of them.

According to this site, the average salary for a Chinese worker is $14K.

Yeah, that's going to allow them to buy all those products made by Chinese companies.

So if all those Chinese are getting paid a whole lot more, then what will that do to the profit margin of the Chinese companies?

Clearly the owners of all those companies will leap at the opertunity to pay their workers more, so they can buy the products they make. Screw that pay them little and sell to the rest of the world crap.
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:58 PM   #64
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But GOD WILLS IT!
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Old 06-21-2012, 06:14 PM   #65
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Well, I think what he got from your post was a bit more than "watching." So may be a miscommunication. (For the record that was how I read your post also)

I'm ok with watching. I'm significanly less ok with fighting Russia and China in a proxy war. That sounds like a recipe for disaster IMO.
If Russia or China intervene in Syria, what are the probabilities that things spill across the border into Turkey or Jordan?

They certainly are not zero.

Turkey is a member of NATO, and according to that treaty, if she is attacked, that's the same thing as an attack on us.

Reasonable people can disagree as to how we should respond to such a hypothetical incident. However, a fundamental element in debating an appropriate response, is an understanding of the options, along with the costs and benefits of any given response. You can't make a reasoned discussion of that without some sort of plan and analysis on the table to discuss.

The entire thrust of this thread is not what we should or should not do. It is that the Pentagon has had the audacity to actually develop a host of plans for various contingencies.

It is the Baron's opinion that no plans should be developed, because there are no possible circumstances or roles the military could possibly play in this crisis. Of course he can only envision one possible mission, i.e., the overthrow of the Assad regime.

Do you think it is appropriate for the Pentagon to have done due diligence and evaluated the full gamut of possibilities and have plans in place to address them?

Do you think the existence of such plans has any impact on the probability that they would be implemented?

Do you think it is reasonable for any President, to ask the Pentagon, during a time of crisis, what the military options are?

Do you think it is reasonable for him to expect an answer as opposed to "uh we'll have to get back to you"?
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Old 06-21-2012, 06:17 PM   #66
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I teach the President of Kazakhstan's nephew.

His dad is the top general of Kazakhstan.

Great, friendly kid.
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Old 06-21-2012, 06:32 PM   #67
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I teach the President of Kazakhstan's nephew.

His dad is the top general of Kazakhstan.

Great, friendly kid.
Does he know Borat?
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Old 06-21-2012, 09:13 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
So if they were to cut off investing money in the US, they would be able to easily build a true "workers paradise", then I have one simple question.

Why do they invest money here?

Your post suggests they would be better off with a domestic consumer economy, so why haven't they done that?

They wouldn't have to withdraw any money form the US, simply make that switch and boom Happy joy club!

So why haven't they done this?

Well I can think of a few reasons.

For there to be "billion" Chinese middle class, they would have to be paid a whole lot more than there are now, especially since there are 1.3B of them.

According to this site, the average salary for a Chinese worker is $14K.

Yeah, that's going to allow them to buy all those products made by Chinese companies.

So if all those Chinese are getting paid a whole lot more, then what will that do to the profit margin of the Chinese companies?

Clearly the owners of all those companies will leap at the opertunity to pay their workers more, so they can buy the products they make. Screw that pay them little and sell to the rest of the world crap.
China is still mostly an agricultural nation, which makes the statistics a bit misleading.

From your own link;

The Incomes In China Are Increasing

Factories are increasing payments to workers. Governments are raising minimum wages.

The incomes of factory workers are still low compared to the workers in United States and Europe. The hourly earning in southern China is only about 80 cents per hour.

The workers from rural provinces usually earn about US$200 a month, working six or seven days a week.

Big manufacturers intend to raise wages because they are desperate to attract new workers. Many coastal cities have labor shortages.

China won't lose its manufacturing because it have a huge domestic market. It will move them to higher-end goods.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are a few things to chew on...

China, the second highest achiever in the world in terms of HDI improvement since 1970, is the only country on the “Top 10 Movers” list due to income rather than health or education achievements. China’s per capita income increased a stunning 21-fold over the last four decades, also lifting hundreds of millions out of income poverty.

http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/globa...,21574,en.html



Now, compare that to the US

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2...united-states/

And then you couple the above income chart with this...



...and you don't have to be a psychic to see the future.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 06-21-2012, 09:53 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
I am certainly not less pessimistic than you.

I just have a different criteria for "need".

My bar for "need" is much higher.

Namely, that we are under attack or imminent threat of attack, such as a declaration of war.....not "Weapons of Mass Destruction" or any such propaganda.

There must be imminent danger to Americans on American soil.

"National Interest" is the worst sort of propaganda ever devised.

In my view, of course.

We would be a lot better off with a "not our business, let us know how it turns out, and let's trade with one another" policy.

Think about it.

China is the worst abuser of human rights on the planet.

Are we better off attacking and trying to overthrow them, or just minding our own business and trading with them?

You could swap "China" for any other country..Syria, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, whatever.

Our national interest is not getting involved, and just having free trade.

If they have a revolution and overthrow the government, we congratulate them and re-establish free trade with the new government.

Meanwhile, we line our coasts with warships and bombers, close our 700 foreign military bases, and bring it on home so that our country is bristling with military might.

Pretty sure noone would fvck with us.
I'm not arguing with your definition of "need". I'm simply basing my opinions on the tendencies I've observed from the past, (and I also don't see anything special about the people in charge across the planet now, that would make me think they are likely to do anything different).

Another way of saying it is, from my perspective, you are making conclusions based on how things ought to be, while I'm making conclusions based on how I think things are (and what leaders are likely to do).
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Old 06-22-2012, 05:35 AM   #70
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I'm not arguing with your definition of "need". I'm simply basing my opinions on the tendencies I've observed from the past, (and I also don't see anything special about the people in charge across the planet now, that would make me think they are likely to do anything different).

Another way of saying it is, from my perspective, you are making conclusions based on how things ought to be, while I'm making conclusions based on how I think things are (and what leaders are likely to do).
On that point, I can't argue.

At some point, though...our financial weakness will make itself known and force a change in policy.
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Old 06-22-2012, 10:14 AM   #71
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Turkish jet downed by Syrian air defenses: report


(Reuters) - Lebanon's Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar television station said on Friday that Syrian air defenses shot down a Turkish military aircraft, quoting Syrian security sources.

"Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defense forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," a news flash on the Beirut-based station said.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...85L0PZ20120622

I am not sure this is true, but I figured it was worth posting.

I'll have to think about what scenario would involve a Turkish jet in Syrian airspace.

I've half a mind to figure that this may be Syria shooting down it's own jet that may have followed the earlier defection of a Syrian Air Force colonel.

Assad grounded the entire Air Force, and if this was one of his guys trying to follow suit and defect, I have no doubt it would be shot down, and a cover story released.

Not saying this is the case....but it seems more plausible to me than a Turkish jet being downed, unless the Turks are launching military strikes on behalf of NATO that hasn't been announced yet.

This is also possible, because a lot of reports of major explosions are coming out of Syria today.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 06-22-2012, 11:07 AM   #72
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Confirmed, 1 Turkish plane with 2 pilots down.

That is the only confirmed info so far.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 07-11-2012, 08:38 AM   #73
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Exciting and concerning stuff going on the last couple of weeks.

Russian-Chinese wargames taking place in Syrian waters, and docking in Syrian ports.

British special forces moved into Syria two weeks ago to support rebel offensives.

Saudi, Jordan, and Iraq went on war alert status and troops and hardware have moved to the borders of Syria to establish protected zones along the Syrian border.

The US is apparently concerned, because they want a transition of power that they can control, rather than a power vacuum likely to be filled by Islamic militants.

All according to DEBKA, which in my experience is pretty reliable.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:20 AM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
Exciting and concerning stuff going on the last couple of weeks.

Russian-Chinese wargames taking place in Syrian waters, and docking in Syrian ports.

British special forces moved into Syria two weeks ago to support rebel offensives.

Saudi, Jordan, and Iraq went on war alert status and troops and hardware have moved to the borders of Syria to establish protected zones along the Syrian border.

The US is apparently concerned, because they want a transition of power that they can control, rather than a power vacuum likely to be filled by Islamic militants.

All according to DEBKA, which in my experience is pretty reliable.
Things certainly would be a lot easier for the US, if Bush had taken my advice and built bases on the Syrian and Iranian borders.

Just sayin.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:23 AM   #75
BradyLady12
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Everything we're being told about Syria is a pack of lies. The rebels we're arming are committing genocide on the Christians there.
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