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Old 03-31-2020, 06:32 PM   #736
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Originally Posted by tehmackdaddy View Post
Why not simply let the states and municipalities handle that?

I mean, if state and local leaders were completely ignoring what was going on and there were a reason for the federal government to step in, I could see your argument, but that isn't the case. Why add a redundant layer?
I deactivated My FB account I got tried of worst case scenarios & negative posts. Just give worst case scenario to stop the spread. I do understand why they don't want too . It would completely destroy the economy. I can tell you right now their the same amount of traffic on I70 driving to work.

Last edited by king of kings; 03-31-2020 at 07:01 PM..
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:45 PM   #737
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Originally Posted by BostonTim View Post
Just wondering, testing by statistically valid random sampling?

Cheers
Well I can think of two examples, both of which I posted.

The first one was a study of the people on the Diamond Princess. In case your forgot, that was the cruise ship in the Pacific that got quarantined.

From the link.
OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

...

Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms.
Then there was the OpEd that Dwight first pointed out.
“On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vň were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%,” the professors said. “Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.”
So there's two data points that may or may not be representative.

In the first, only 20% of the people were actually infected, in an environment that would match the "No action taken" scenario that the "models" predict 2 million dead in the US.

And then we have this article that pegs the mortality rate at 0.5% based on the cruise ship.

So if we apply a 20% infection rate and a 0.5% mortality rate to the 330 million US population, I get 330,000 for the worse case scenario, not 2 million.

Yes, 330,000 is a horrible outcome, but it is what that data says would happen if we did absolutely nothing.

Now let's apply the second bit of data, from the second link, regarding the 0.06% mortality rate, along with a 20% infection rate of the US.

That's 39,600 dead.

Again a tragedy, but not all that different from what the flu does every year.

---------- Post added at 07:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:41 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr NFLfan View Post
Screw modeling and all the hair splitting arguments about death rates transmission rates, yada yada yada.
All one has to do is watch the reports from the front line Dr's. and nurses. They are shocked, scared and broken emotionally that they can't save many of their patients. Many are getting sick themselves and many have died. I think Italy had lost over 60 Dr's. from covid-19 infections Never seen that with the normal yearly flu outbreaks. Never has the health care system been so overloaded in my lifetime. Those reactions alone tell me just how bad this virus is. What we do individually, and how serious people take this can make a big difference in the numbers in the end. This isn't something any of us, young, old, healthy, fragile, should take lightly.
Just curious, do you have any links for this?
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:08 PM   #738
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The vast majority of people who post here worship at the feet of a narcissistic pathological liar and get your news from Fox, his propaganda machine. I don't think any of you are qualified to comment on media coverage.
I agree Bid....its like a trump rally in here. Has the my pillow guy posted in here yet?
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:18 PM   #739
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I agree Bid....its like a trump rally in here. Has the my pillow guy posted in here yet?


It used to be much more even in here. Not anymore.

To be fair, a lot of lefties here were riding the Russian collusion train pretty hard, and thought that Mueller was the answer to Trump.
When that failed in spectacular fashion, many lefties left.


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Old 03-31-2020, 09:22 PM   #740
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Originally Posted by PatsFan09 View Post
It used to be much more even in here. Not anymore.

To be fair, a lot of lefties here were riding the Russian collusion train pretty hard, and thought that Mueller was the answer to Trump.
When that failed in spectacular fashion, many lefties left.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
You are absolutely correct, PF.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:45 PM   #741
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Originally Posted by bideau View Post
The vast majority of people who post here worship at the feet of a narcissistic pathological liar and get your news from Fox, his propaganda machine. I don't think any of you are qualified to comment on media coverage.
Ok, if you think that, then please provide links to “The Truth”
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Old 04-01-2020, 01:22 AM   #742
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Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
Ok, if you think that, then please provide links to “The Truth”
Links to what....Trumps lies? All you need are ears.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:06 AM   #743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
Ok, if you think that, then please provide links to “The Truth”
Not that it matters, but President Trump has made 15,413 false or misleading claims over 1,055 days

I had a customer yesterday who was one of those misinformed people that think Trump has never lied, ever! Or that he doesn't lie any more than any politician...
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:40 AM   #744
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Links to what....Trumps lies? All you need are ears.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HipKat View Post
Not that it matters, but President Trump has made 15,413 false or misleading claims over 1,055 days

I had a customer yesterday who was one of those misinformed people that think Trump has never lied, ever! Or that he doesn't lie any more than any politician...
It won't matter to the cult. It will be dismissed as "liberal media" or justified as "alternate facts". It's willful ignorance on their part just because they hate liberals so much.

It is what it is. I have little desire to keep harping on it. The discussions become circular and degenerate into insults. No one is changing their minds. And unless someone wants to hurl an insult my way, I'll just go back to monitoring and ensuring that there's some bit of civility here.

More on topic to the thread, the head of the CDC was interviewed yesterday and he says that the virus is about 3 times more contagious than the flu.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-be-with-us

Quote:
Has the CDC learned anything new about the virus, such as how contagious it is or how it is transmitted, in recent weeks?

Let's take transmission. ... This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu.

One of the [pieces of] information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%. That's important, because now you have individuals that may not have any symptoms that can contribute to transmission, and we have learned that in fact they do contribute to transmission.

And finally, of those of us that get symptomatic, it appears that we're shedding significant virus in our oropharyngeal compartment, probably up to 48 hours before we show symptoms. This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country, because we have asymptomatic transmitters and we have individuals who are transmitting 48 hours before they become symptomatic.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:50 AM   #745
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If anyone watched yesterday's press conference, Jim Acosta and Trump had several respectful exchanges.

I hope it is only irony, but it was reported that CNN refused to televise the conference while Trump was at the podium, so their viewers did not see any of those exchanges.
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:16 AM   #746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bideau View Post
It won't matter to the cult. It will be dismissed as "liberal media" or justified as "alternate facts". It's willful ignorance on their part just because they hate liberals so much.

It is what it is. I have little desire to keep harping on it. The discussions become circular and degenerate into insults. No one is changing their minds. And unless someone wants to hurl an insult my way, I'll just go back to monitoring and ensuring that there's some bit of civility here.
Hold on a minute.

Within the last 24 hours you, more than once, insulted "the vast majority of people who post here," of which I consider myself and other rather reasonable people included and of which a description that does not describe me or them at all, but you want the insults to stop and things to remain civil?

I did not engage in yesterday's exchange on purpose because you are correct, it becomes circular and pointless, but perhaps there is a better way to maintain civility than popping in to make insults and then bailing.

Please stick around. Opposing viewpoints, those scarce, are welcome, healthy, and needed.
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:26 AM   #747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tehmackdaddy View Post
If anyone watched yesterday's press conference, Jim Acosta and Trump had several respectful exchanges.

I hope it is only irony, but it was reported that CNN refused to televise the conference while Trump was at the podium, so their viewers did not see any of those exchanges.
I don't know about CNN since I refuse to watch that trash, nor any MSM, really, but I have read that a lot of news outlets have muted him or refused to air his pressers and really, I don't blame them. he's the boy who cried wolf. His lies and false statements have created that situation. Telling people to go to work if they feel sick?? Really? Governors who are trying to be "Trumpian" refusing to close down things in their states because of the shit he spews?

He created that situation
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:44 AM   #748
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Not for nothing, but linking WaPo as the arbiter of truth isn't going to go terribly far.

In fact...I would say that virtually none of the mainstream media qualifies any more, they are essentially a blend of propaganda and advertising.

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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:53 AM   #749
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Not in the slightest. Who the F are those people he knows, where do they work, under what capacity?

If that had been a liberal slanted post, you would have dismissed it immediately. I'm going to believe the people in the ER and ICU units, the EMS drivers and more people on the actual front lines who are going on the record through interviews and telling us how bad it is. I'm not going to believe a 2nd hand comment from who the fuck knows.

Un-fucking-believable.
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Originally Posted by bideau View Post
The vast majority of people who post here worship at the feet of a narcissistic pathological liar and get your news from Fox, his propaganda machine. I don't think any of you are qualified to comment on media coverage.
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Originally Posted by bideau View Post
Even The Grand Exalted Ruler is finally admitting how much worse this is going to get. Easily his most sobering update yet. Best case with extreme mitigation is 150-250,000 deaths lasting through June. With no mitigation, estimates would jump over 2 million.

And now an aircraft carrier is a hot spot and the Captain is begging for help.

But it's all a liberal plot
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I didn't have an issue with your post, but with the response.
While we have many opposite political views, I've always found your level headedness to be refreshing.

I'm sorry to you for my role in escalation. I rarely voice my opinion here, but events last month have forced me to read more than I care to.
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Originally Posted by bideau View Post
It won't matter to the cult. It will be dismissed as "liberal media" or justified as "alternate facts". It's willful ignorance on their part just because they hate liberals so much.

It is what it is. I have little desire to keep harping on it. The discussions become circular and degenerate into insults. No one is changing their minds. And unless someone wants to hurl an insult my way, I'll just go back to monitoring and ensuring that there's some bit of civility here.

More on topic to the thread, the head of the CDC was interviewed yesterday and he says that the virus is about 3 times more contagious than the flu.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-be-with-us

The above are my posts in the past 24 hours. "Worship at feet of a narcissistic pathological liar" is an insult? It's an observation. How am I not correct about the Trump worship? It is documented fact that he's a pathological liar. It is absolutely true that there are at least a handful of hard core Trump supporters who hurl insults towards those who do not support him on a regular basis, if not directly, as a group for sure. And yet, when some of us finally get tired of it and respond with measured replies, you want to accuse me of the same behavior? Believe me, I stopped myself many times in the past from going nuclear on this place. I take my role here very seriously, many times at the expense of my own opinions. You see it as bailing, I see it as preserving my sanity and going back to the role I signed up for.

Believe what you want of me. I have nothing to apologize for.
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Old 04-01-2020, 08:05 AM   #750
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It won't matter to the cult. It will be dismissed as "liberal media" or justified as "alternate facts". It's willful ignorance on their part just because they hate liberals so much.

It is what it is. I have little desire to keep harping on it. The discussions become circular and degenerate into insults. No one is changing their minds. And unless someone wants to hurl an insult my way, I'll just go back to monitoring and ensuring that there's some bit of civility here.

More on topic to the thread, the head of the CDC was interviewed yesterday and he says that the virus is about 3 times more contagious than the flu.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-be-with-us
Here is the question though. Assuming a 3X contagion rate, where does that put the death rate as compared to seasonal flu. CDC.gov estimates between 24 and 62 thousand deaths this year alone in the US. So at 3X contagion the deaths to covid19 could go as large as about 186,000. This is not taking into account that the seasonal flu has a widely distributed vaccine.

Another question I have is who in the hell says someone so severe in this illness cannot demand any treatment they want is beyond me.
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