Patriots' team needs priority on Drafttek

[Dwight Schrute]

Originally Posted by Borg

Here's the link to the week 3 Baltimore/ NE game........The Legend started this game, the legend amassed 2 catches, and the legend helped block for a NE running game that averaged 3.1 yards/carry.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/gametra...0120923_NE@BAL

Are you and Ryan not getting enough blood to the brain?

PS, Ryan shouldn't you be in the pub right now instead of post season football blather. I love Edinburgh.........Years ago, was leaving a club in Edinburgh with another American and a local Scottish gal. Guess she decided to ditch her boyfriend....As we were stepping into a taxi, all of a sudden the vehicle is surrounded by 6 Scottish sailors (dressed in their pea coat uniforms....seriously) who start rocking the taxi and pounding on the windows. Next thing you know the driver gets out of the cab with a mini baseball bat and starts beating one of the sailors. His mates go running off and we got to ride away peacefully. Good times.

So, let me get this straight: your gonna call the effect of a replacement player in Hoo-man, who, if he were released right now would probably not be picked up by another team in the league since we got him and we're down at the bottom of the waiver list always equivalent to the presence of Gronk, who if his draft class was re-drafted he'd go top 5 overall. Maybe top spot altogether if the team was set at QB.

I'd venture to guess BB has more of an idea of what he has in the form of a team in an AFC Championship game vs a week 3 regular season tilt. To assume the same numbers would take place is just wrong, particularly at home vs on the road.

[Hawg73]

Originally Posted by thomas144

My favorite mock draft website is Drafttek - if you are not familiar with it, the idea is that players are ranked and a team's needs are prioritized by position, then software runs a simulation with these inputs and then creates a mock draft based on drafting order (of course).

It's never particularly accurate but it's fun for people like me who don't follow college football much but love the college draft.

I've been following drafttek for years (it was not long ago a very primitive website) and even considered being the Patriots expert for the site but declined, because I don't really know much about football. In the early days, there were very few "team experts" giving their inputs but now I think each team has someone who has the job of establishing the priorities.

The problem I have this year is that the guy doing the Patriots priorities seems to think one of their most critical needs is Offensive Guard, and this makes the simulation say that the Patriots will select a guard (Jonathan Cooper) in the first round.

I think the Patriots have greater needs at Wide Receiver, cornerback, and defensive end, and I think offensive guard is pretty low down on their priority list going into the draft. I thought about sending email to the guy representing the Patriots on drafttek, but wondered what other people thought.

Here is a link to the teams' current needs. Lower number is higher priority into the simulation:

http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2013.asp

I don't think you'll get much of an argument that guard isn't a glaring need on this team, but I've watched Cooper and think he is one hell of a player that fits our prototype for an OL in that he's a guy that is really agile for his size. A great athlete.

If they took him I might be the only person around who wouldn't be disappointed. There are worse things than taking a kid who could be one of the best guards in the NFL for the next decade and addressing our other needs in the usual fashion and hoping for the best.

[thomas144]

Originally Posted by Hawg73

I don't think you'll get much of an argument that guard isn't a glaring need on this team, but I've watched Cooper and think he is one hell of a player that fits our prototype for an OL in that he's a guy that is really agile for his size. A great athlete.

If they took him I might be the only person around who wouldn't be disappointed. There are worse things than taking a kid who could be one of the best guards in the NFL for the next decade and addressing our other needs in the usual fashion and hoping for the best.

I suspect that the Patriots "expert" for Drafttek (who is somebody named Matt Pfleger) probably really likes Cooper and thus has skewed the team's priorities so that the simulation drafts him for the Pats in the first round.

I too would not mind seeing them draft a great player at any position, but it distorts the whole purpose of the Drafttek simulation to rig it to pick a favorite player.

Anyway, I think at some point I will email him this thread.

[thomas144]

I just realized that Drafttek now lets you change the priorities and player rankings and run your own simulations (love this website!).

Even without changing the current settings, when I run my own simulation it says the Patriots will draft a 6'4" wide receiver:

http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-foo..._justin00.html

If I change the priority of offensive guard from 2 to 1 (hightest priority) it says the Pats will draft Jonathan Cooper.

[Dwight Schrute]

Originally Posted by Hawg73

I don't think you'll get much of an argument that guard isn't a glaring need on this team, but I've watched Cooper and think he is one hell of a player that fits our prototype for an OL in that he's a guy that is really agile for his size. A great athlete.

If they took him I might be the only person around who wouldn't be disappointed. There are worse things than taking a kid who could be one of the best guards in the NFL for the next decade and addressing our other needs in the usual fashion and hoping for the best.

If there is 1 and only 1 constant this team has its the ability to continually churn out low profile high performance O-lineman. For all of BB's days, from Hochstein to Koppen to a freakin college wrestler conversion project they ALWAYS seem to be able to address the interior O-line positions. Until Mankins. The lone high draft pick interior guy.

And I'd argue that was a high pick and subsequent cap dollars not as wise spent as could have been. Case in point: when Logan decided to hold out and Connelly, another low find, stepped in an nearly equaled the production for about 10% of the cost.

So no, though I love the thought of an O-line the equivalent of the old Redskin hogs, I think that aspect is covered quite handily thru the lower rounds and UDFA's. I'd far more approve of BB using the 1st round ammo on a complement to Jones on the other edge, some relief/insurance for Vince, a CB or S, or even a legit horse WR if they are sure of 'im....(gulp)!!!!

[Ryan91]

Originally Posted by thomas144

I just realized that Drafttek now lets you change the priorities and player rankings and run your own simulations (love this website!).

Even without changing the current settings, when I run my own simulation it says the Patriots will draft a 6'4" wide receiver:

http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-foo..._justin00.html

If I change the priority of offensive guard from 2 to 1 (hightest priority) it says the Pats will draft Jonathan Cooper.

Read a scouting report on him - seems like hands are a bit of an issue with this kid.

This is the report on him that I read - http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/201...outing-report/

Seems that there is a lot to be desired in this kid and although drafttek considers the pick to be a value pick, I just think that this kid is probably going to be available late in the second, even with his big frame.

[dchester]

Originally Posted by Borg

To beat a team like the Ravens, you have to get them out of the nickel. NE couldn't do it and scored 13. SF had a running game (Gore/Kaepernick) that the Ravens respected and thus stayed in base D which opened up the passing lanes, with SF scoring 31. SF averaged 18 yds/completion on 57% passing vs Balt while NE averaged 11 yds/completion on 53% passing. In other words, the nickel killed the short yard/high % passing game.

Baltimore packed it in (similar to what the Jets did a couple years back), rather than being worried about covering the whole field. If the Ravens play the nickel but have to respect the possibility of the deep ball, I'd like the Pats chances just fine.

The Pats don't have a deep threat, so the Ravens were able to cover all the short patterns, and also stop the run.

[MaineMan]

Originally Posted by dchester

Baltimore packed it in (similar to what the Jets did a couple years back), rather than being worried about covering the whole field. If the Ravens play the nickel but have to respect the possibility of the deep ball, I'd like the Pats chances just fine.

The Pats don't have a deep threat, so the Ravens were able to cover all the short patterns, and also stop the run.

This. Is a big part of it.

Missing Gronk was a big factor and helped the Ravens feel comfortable packing the middle while using 5 DBs.

Ridley is a good RB, but not the greatest thing since sliced bread - yet. I often feel like he gets in one good 7+ yard run for every two times he get stuffed, even when the running game is putting up good numbers. And that's not all on the OL.

I thought that Donald Thomas was more consistent in run-blocking than Mankins this season, though that was at least partly due to Mankins' health. When Mankins was "on", he was his usual elite self, but he wasn't at all consistent the last couple regular season games on in the playoffs. Connolly wasn't as consistently good run-blocking as he was last season, either.

IMO, if the Pats draft a guard high (2nd round), it will be because they traded Mankins and his $10M cap-hit to some OL-needy NFC team with cap space and re-signed Thomas.