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Old 01-07-2018, 11:52 PM   #16
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Old 01-08-2018, 06:34 AM   #17
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Pats open as 13.5 point favorites.
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Old 01-08-2018, 06:53 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by TommyD420 View Post
I mean

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Don't forget about Mariota and that no huddle power spread read option college offense of Tennessee's. It's not pretty but it worked against KC in the 2nd half. Derrick Henry is the real deal and Mariota has running skillz so it's time to stack the box, stop their run and make Mariota throw the ball. Meet their heavy run formations with a heavy box and watch as Mariota tries to come back from a Pats lead the way he did against KC.
That's hard to visualize.

Pats open as 13.5 pt favorites even though Tenn hasn't lost a game by >10 all year. That will come down as the sharps start betting closer to game time.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:16 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Don't forget about Mariota and that no huddle power spread read option college offense of Tennessee's. It's not pretty but it worked against KC in the 2nd half. Derrick Henry is the real deal and Mariota has running skillz so it's time to stack the box, stop their run and make Mariota throw the ball. Meet their heavy run formations with a heavy box and watch as Mariota tries to come back from a Pats lead the way he did against KC.
That's hard to visualize.

Pats open as 13.5 pt favorites even though Tenn hasn't lost a game by >10 all year. That will come down as the sharps start betting closer to game time.
We'll see. I bet it doesn't come down much.

If Tennessee dicks around trying to establish the run, they'll lose, it's that simple. It's Dick LeBeau. The Patriots are going to score a slew of points. Their only real shot is hitting Corey Davis over the top a couple of times. They'll straight double Walker if they have to, although probably just have Chung on him early.

I have no faith in Tennessee to adjust to a damn thing. If their gameplan doesn't involve deep shots to Davis and a heavy dose of Delanie Walker, I expect them to be ghosts.

I still can't believe KC blew that lead. They could have just taken knees once Kelce went out, and won the game. Of course, having 10 guys on defense (Revis was a spectator mostly), probably didn't help.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:23 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Don't forget about Mariota and that no huddle power spread read option college offense of Tennessee's. It's not pretty but it worked against KC in the 2nd half. Derrick Henry is the real deal and Mariota has running skillz so it's time to stack the box, stop their run and make Mariota throw the ball. Meet their heavy run formations with a heavy box and watch as Mariota tries to come back from a Pats lead the way he did against KC.
That's hard to visualize.

Pats open as 13.5 pt favorites even though Tenn hasn't lost a game by >10 all year. That will come down as the sharps start betting closer to game time.
Then the sharps are going to lose a lot of money. I'll make a $100 charity donation wager with anyone who thinks NE fails to cover the spread.

Oh, and TN lost to Houston by 43 in week 4 and to Pitt by 23 in week 11.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:30 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Don't forget about Mariota and that no huddle power spread read option college offense of Tennessee's. It's not pretty but it worked against KC in the 2nd half. Derrick Henry is the real deal and Mariota has running skillz so it's time to stack the box, stop their run and make Mariota throw the ball. Meet their heavy run formations with a heavy box and watch as Mariota tries to come back from a Pats lead the way he did against KC.
That's hard to visualize.

Pats open as 13.5 pt favorites even though Tenn hasn't lost a game by >10 all year. That will come down as the sharps start betting closer to game time.
Lost in all the chest-thumping over how we're going to destroy the Titans is that Henry is the kind of guy that we can concentrate on and still may not be able to stop.

We'll likely go with a contain rush for the athletic Mariota, and a heavy emphasis on keeping men in the box to defend Henry which might give him time to hit the underrated PITA Delaney Walker and Corey Davis-- who didn't have a great year due partially to injury, but looks like a future star to me. A stud.

Watching that game against KC I swore they were the dumbest team I'd seen all year with self-inflicted mistakes in all three phases, but they also have some very good players sprinkled into every positional group who play hard for their questionable coaching staff, including Logan Ryan who quietly made 2nd team all-pro the other day. If they don't play as stupidly as they did against KC then we've got problems.

Everybody is chuckling, but I won't have any issues keeping my usual respect for the opposition up for Saturday night.

As such, our tailgate tradition is to symbolically "eat the opponent" and for the Titans that means I'll be whipping up some baby back ribs with a Jack Daniels sauce, cole slaw and bacon-cheddar-jalapeno corn bread. My goal is to start tailgating as early as possible to get a maintainable buzz going.

Playoffs. We're talking PLAYOFFS!!!
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:31 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
Then the sharps are going to lose a lot of money. I'll make a $100 charity donation wager with anyone who thinks NE fails to cover the spread.

Oh, and TN lost to Houston by 43 in week 4 and to Pitt by 23 in week 11.
Yeah, you're right. Breer tweeted "The Titans have only lost one game by more than 10 all year" and I misread it.
His error has since been corrected...by you?
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:39 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Hawg73 View Post
Lost in all the chest-thumping over how we're going to destroy the Titans is that Henry is the kind of guy that we can concentrate on and still may not be able to stop.

We'll likely go with a contain rush for the athletic Mariota, and a heavy emphasis on keeping men in the box to defend Henry which might give him time to hit the underrated PITA Delaney Walker and Corey Davis-- who didn't have a great year due partially to injury, but looks like a future star to me. A stud.

Watching that game against KC I swore they were the dumbest team I'd seen all year with self-inflicted mistakes in all three phases, but they also have some very good players sprinkled into every positional group who play hard for their questionable coaching staff, including Logan Ryan who quietly made 2nd team all-pro the other day. If they don't play as stupidly as they did against KC then we've got problems.

Everybody is chuckling, but I won't have any issues keeping my usual respect for the opposition up for Saturday night.

As such, our tailgate tradition is to symbolically "eat the opponent" and for the Titans that means I'll be whipping up some baby back ribs with a Jack Daniels sauce, cole slaw and bacon-cheddar-jalapeno corn bread. My goal is to start tailgating as early as possible to get a maintainable buzz going.

Playoffs. We're talking PLAYOFFS!!!
From Mike Reiss

Strengths: Rush defense. The Titans finished fourth in the NFL, allowing just 88.8 rushing yards per game. They held the NFL's leading rusher, Kansas City's Kareem Hunt, to 42 rushing yards in Saturday's win. Todd Gurley is the only back who rushed for more than 100 yards against them this season. Defensive lineman Jurrell Casey and linebacker Wesley Woodyard are anchors to a fast-pursuing group that rarely gets gashed for big plays on the ground. Dominance in the run game often forces teams to be one-dimensional.
Weaknesses: Passing offense. It's a struggle to watch the Titans' passing attack sometimes, as Mariota's inconsistent accuracy, a lack of receiver precision and a scheme that isn't a great fit for either of them has stopped the Titans from maximizing their talent. Walker can hurt a defense, but the Titans lack explosive speed to stretch a defense. Mariota has extended plays, creating more big plays, but there haven't been a ton of games in which the young quarterback has torched a defense consistently with his right arm.


http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england...shmouth-scheme
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:42 AM   #24
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There's also this...

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter 14m14 minutes ago
Divisional Round a battle of QBs with playoff experience vs QBs without it. Remaining QBs and their postseason starts:

Mariota 1
Brady 34

Bortles 1
Roethlisberger 20

Ryan 9
Foles 1

Brees 12
Keenum 0
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:45 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawg73 View Post
Lost in all the chest-thumping over how we're going to destroy the Titans is that Henry is the kind of guy that we can concentrate on and still may not be able to stop.

We'll likely go with a contain rush for the athletic Mariota, and a heavy emphasis on keeping men in the box to defend Henry which might give him time to hit the underrated PITA Delaney Walker and Corey Davis-- who didn't have a great year due partially to injury, but looks like a future star to me. A stud.

Watching that game against KC I swore they were the dumbest team I'd seen all year with self-inflicted mistakes in all three phases, but they also have some very good players sprinkled into every positional group who play hard for their questionable coaching staff, including Logan Ryan who quietly made 2nd team all-pro the other day. If they don't play as stupidly as they did against KC then we've got problems.

Everybody is chuckling, but I won't have any issues keeping my usual respect for the opposition up for Saturday night.

As such, our tailgate tradition is to symbolically "eat the opponent" and for the Titans that means I'll be whipping up some baby back ribs with a Jack Daniels sauce, cole slaw and bacon-cheddar-jalapeno corn bread. My goal is to start tailgating as early as possible to get a maintainable buzz going.

Playoffs. We're talking PLAYOFFS!!!
I don't agree that Henry can overcome a defensive focus, to me, he's Legarrette Blount with less tread on his tires. But the rest of this is spot on. Walker's 33, so I don't know how much of a future star he'll be, but he's IMO their best offensive player, and someone Chung could struggle with covering one-on-one. Corey Davis terrifies me over the top, and I just pray that Gilmore gets that assignment over Butler, although Butler struggles with Eric Decker too, so who knows?

That said, Tennessee's not a team that can do more than one thing. They can run, OR they can pass. Even with the big comeback, it's not like the Titans spread-em-out and chucked it all over the field. They just stuck to the run, and eventually they ran to Quitter Revis' side enough to where the holes were wide open. They only had 195 yards passing.

I think Chevss is right, and I think you even risk giving David Harris meaningful snaps (even though he's useless in containing Mariota), and I think Harrison plays a ton. Stack the box, make Mariota chuck it, and hope your D-Line doesn't over-rush, and your secondary can cover. Davis is a legit speed guy, so I'm concerned about that, and covering Walker with just Chung, is a little scary, considering Walker is pretty damned dynamic when they start feeding him

If you can keep Mariota from killing you on 3rd and medium/long with scrambles, the defense should be ok.

And in the end, the Patriots are going to score points. The Zone Blitz scares me exactly 0%. Find Brian Orakpo. Figure out if he's rushing or dropping. Adjust accordingly. That's the game on offense. If it were a more creative DC, I'd say they even put Logan Ryan on Gronkowski, but it's not. it will be a LB with safety shaded, blah blah blah.

I don't love predicting scores, because in the end, it doesn't matter, a 1 point win counts just as much as a 50 point win. But I just don't see how Tennessee can stop the Patriots enough, to be able to keep up with them on the scoreboard - AND run the ball, AND control the clock.

I mean, they're 9-7 for a reason.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:53 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawg73 View Post
Lost in all the chest-thumping over how we're going to destroy the Titans is that Henry is the kind of guy that we can concentrate on and still may not be able to stop.

We'll likely go with a contain rush for the athletic Mariota, and a heavy emphasis on keeping men in the box to defend Henry which might give him time to hit the underrated PITA Delaney Walker and Corey Davis-- who didn't have a great year due partially to injury, but looks like a future star to me. A stud.

Watching that game against KC I swore they were the dumbest team I'd seen all year with self-inflicted mistakes in all three phases, but they also have some very good players sprinkled into every positional group who play hard for their questionable coaching staff, including Logan Ryan who quietly made 2nd team all-pro the other day. If they don't play as stupidly as they did against KC then we've got problems.

Everybody is chuckling, but I won't have any issues keeping my usual respect for the opposition up for Saturday night.

As such, our tailgate tradition is to symbolically "eat the opponent" and for the Titans that means I'll be whipping up some baby back ribs with a Jack Daniels sauce, cole slaw and bacon-cheddar-jalapeno corn bread. My goal is to start tailgating as early as possible to get a maintainable buzz going.

Playoffs. We're talking PLAYOFFS!!!
FWIW, my comments are neither clucking or chest thumping. I've watched TN several times this year, they just aren't very good. NE would need to play about 30% worse than they did against NY in the 2010 division to lose. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:58 AM   #27
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We are on to the AFCCG...
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:29 AM   #28
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Quote:
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Pats open as 13.5 point favorites.
take the points. This one should be over by halftime.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:26 AM   #29
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Zero storylines in this game. By far the best matchup for the Pats. Dick Lebeau. Awesome.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:44 AM   #30
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I always go with any given Sunday (or Saturday, in this case).

We struggle against mobile QBs, and Mariota is amongst the best.

Their run defense is very good, so our little stud, Dion Lewis, may not find so many open holes in this game.

I'm hoping we play a lot more hurry-up and no huddle in this game. It is, after all, a Dick LeBeau defense, although I've seen fewer safety blitzes than in the past. Then again, Polamalu ain't suiting up.

I'm not discounting TN as much as some others, but I hope we get off to a fast start to knock the wind out of their sails.
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