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Old 01-03-2018, 02:05 PM   #136
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This is tulip mania all over again.
  • Not coincidentally, 2018 a.d. is exactly 481 years after the year of the post-tulip mania collapse (February 1637 a.d.). Tulip mania was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble; although some researchers have noted that the Kipper und Wipper (literally Tipper and See-saw) episode in 1619Ė1622, a Europe-wide chain of debasement of the metal content of coins to fund warfare (sound familiar???), featured mania-like similarities to a bubble. In many ways, the tulip mania was more of a hitherto unknown socio-economic phenomenon than a significant economic crisis. And historically, it had no critical influence on the prosperity of the Dutch Republic, the world's leading economic and financial power in the 17th century. The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values.
  • ...1637 a.d. is exactly 481 years after 675 a.d., when Theuderic III retook the throne from Childeric II, who reigned as sole King of the Franks for the final two years of his life. If you look closely at the coin of Childeric II, you will notice the presence of our favorite flower, the tulip.
  • ...675 a.d. is exactly 481 years after 194 a.d., the year of the passing of Tao Qian of the Han Dynasty. Tao Qian was from Danyang Commandery; the commandery capital was around present-day Ma'anshan, Anhui. As a young man, he was known for being studious and honest. While in the service of the Han dynasty, he led the armed forces in Danyang Commandery to suppress rebellions. When the Yellow Turban Rebellion broke out, he was appointed as the Inspector of Xu Province and he succeeded in clearing the area of rebel forces. He was sent to the northwestern frontiers during the Liang Province Rebellion, where he served under Zhang Wen. During the campaign, he insulted Zhang Wen and angered him. However, Sun Jian and Dong Zhuo served on the same campaign, and both of them also were unhappy with Zhang Wen's leadership as well. In the chaos of Dong Zhuo's coup d'ťtat and the battles that followed, Tao Qian, having returned to Xu Province, gained control of the neighbouring Yang Province. Can you guess what type of flowers grow in this region? If you guessed, the tulip, you'd be right.
  • ...and 194 a.d. is exactly 481 years after 287 b.c., when the Macedonians resent the extravagance and arrogance of their nobleman and military leader, Demetrius Poliorcetes, and are not prepared to fight a difficult campaign for him. When Pyrrhus of Epirus takes the Macedonian city of Verroia, Demetrius' army promptly deserts and goes over to Pyrrhus' side as he is much admired by the Macedonians for his bravery. At this change of fortune, Phila, the mother of Antigonus, kills herself with poison from...a tulip bulb.

You're welcome.
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Old 01-03-2018, 03:31 PM   #137
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I mean donít get me wrong I wish I had been paying more attention and been open to the risk because early adopters who held long term made an absolute killing. Same with ETH and Ripple right now.

Maybe BTC will climbing for a while but eventually itíll collapse and it may be very sudden and without the same kind of potential indicators you see as a market downturn approaches.


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Old 01-03-2018, 10:14 PM   #138
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Tulip mania...ha, great analogy. Also, real estate bubbles and the tech bubble.

When everyone is talking about it, it's time to have a plan to get out before they pull the rug out.

You can scalp/day trade it...but, I wouldn't hold a lot of it in there.
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Old 01-03-2018, 10:58 PM   #139
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Tulip mania...ha, great analogy. Also, real estate bubbles and the tech bubble.

When everyone is talking about it, it's time to have a plan to get out before they pull the rug out.

You can scalp/day trade it...but, I wouldn't hold a lot of it in there.
Crypto is a bit tricky though, because it's entirely possible that some will collapse and others won't. Or maybe won't for a long time.

Even if you just put in $100 on a few you think have potential, you only need one to be the next Bitcoin. Obviously this isn't where you park your long-term savings or money you need for retirement. This is where you put small amounts of cash you are OK with losing in hopes that you'll pick the right coin before it explodes.

It's unlikely all coins will collapse, especially at the same time. So while there's almost definitely a bubble with certain coins, it doesn't mean all currencies should be avoided. May not be true down the road but for now so many coins are coming out with roots in useful technology that investing in them is fairly similar to investing in a startup. The risks and volatility are huge but you only need to be right once. And you may never be right and hit a big win, but that's why you only invest what you can stand to lose.

It's not a bad play at small stakes as additional diversification alongside ETFs, etc.
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Old 01-04-2018, 01:21 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by mooseontheloose View Post
Crypto is a bit tricky though, because it's entirely possible that some will collapse and others won't. Or maybe won't for a long time.

Even if you just put in $100 on a few you think have potential, you only need one to be the next Bitcoin. Obviously this isn't where you park your long-term savings or money you need for retirement. This is where you put small amounts of cash you are OK with losing in hopes that you'll pick the right coin before it explodes.

It's unlikely all coins will collapse, especially at the same time. So while there's almost definitely a bubble with certain coins, it doesn't mean all currencies should be avoided. May not be true down the road but for now so many coins are coming out with roots in useful technology that investing in them is fairly similar to investing in a startup. The risks and volatility are huge but you only need to be right once. And you may never be right and hit a big win, but that's why you only invest what you can stand to lose.

It's not a bad play at small stakes as additional diversification alongside ETFs, etc.
Agreed...this is what I'm doing now.
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Old 01-04-2018, 04:40 PM   #141
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The problem with cryptocurrency, is that it is technology dependant. It's not "real" so to speak...it's more like earning miles on a credit card.

Cryptocurrency has almost ALL of the necessary attributes of what money should be, but it has some flaws. One being the technology flaw, the other being that it lacks any inherent value whatsoever. It can always approach zero value with no stop loss built in.

Now, there is an economic law that money will always tend toward it's intrinsic value over time. So fiat currency, for example, will forever approach zero value. I suspect cryptocurrency will suffer the same, over time....but that may be decades for all I know, it is virgin territory really.

I suspect that cryptocurrencies will go the way of subway tokens. They will be valuable, until one day they are not, rather than a slow devaluation like fiat money.
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Old 01-04-2018, 08:04 PM   #142
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I suspect that cryptocurrencies will go the way of subway tokens. They will be valuable, until one day they are not, rather than a slow devaluation like fiat money.
I think that depends entirely on how good some of the emerging tech is and how well it does in replacing existing monetary/financial systems.

For example, there are some promising coin-backed tech that if adopted as intended would basically nullify the need for credit cards. Not so much from the credit side of things, but in terms of quick access to cash that can be accessed/transferred around the world nearly instantly. The technology these companies are developing expect to provide similar speeds and reliability of VISA but at significantly cheaper rates for merchants.

That's just one example. There are plenty of others that actually aren't completely linked with financial/monetary systems at all.

I think it's insane to think that none of this tech (and therefore the coin markets associated with them) will become major players in the future. Obviously it could be years or even decades, and the eventual king coins may not even be on the market yet.

But some form of cryptocurrency is here to stay IMO. What that looks like and how it fits into our current industries/platforms will depend on the success of these companies, technologies, coins, etc. Many coins will eventually die off but some will survive because it's just illogical to assume otherwise.

And they don't need to exist as some 'rebel' version of money to be successful. It's the tech that these companies are developing that could one day be extremely valuable. There's no telling if the coins they've deployed now will retain value once all the tech is available, but that doesn't really matter in today's calculation because there should be a good long period in which many coins (ie. successful ventures or those with a lot of potential) will produce huge returns.

Trading the currencies for profit may not last forever but I think we're a very far cry from them (collectively) being worthless.
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Old 01-04-2018, 09:38 PM   #143
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the other being that it lacks any inherent value whatsoever. It can always approach zero value with no stop loss built in.

Tell me, what is the "inherent value" of gold?

Its price is defined solely by what people are willing to pay for it.

Consider a hypothetical.

What is gold worth to someone on The Walking Dead?

Nothing. Food, weapons, gasoline, clothing, etc. have value. Gold is worthless.

By definition, "inherent value" exists under all circumstances.

So it's no different than any fiat currency, in that regard.
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Old 01-05-2018, 07:41 AM   #144
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Tell me, what is the "inherent value" of gold?

Its price is defined solely by what people are willing to pay for it.

Consider a hypothetical.

What is gold worth to someone on The Walking Dead?

Nothing. Food, weapons, gasoline, clothing, etc. have value. Gold is worthless.

By definition, "inherent value" exists under all circumstances.

So it's no different than any fiat currency, in that regard.
Gold and Silver have inherent value, because they nicely fulfill all the required properties of money. I won't bother telling you what they are, because I know you are immune to anything non-Keynesian, but it is those properties which made gold universally considered valuable by civilizations all over the world, throughout time, over and over again. I guess the Keynesians figure that's just a happy coincidence or something.

Incidentally, the things you mention on The Walking Dead have value, but they are not "money". There is a fundamental difference.

Last edited by Baron Samedi; 01-05-2018 at 07:46 AM..
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Old 01-05-2018, 07:54 AM   #145
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I think that depends entirely on how good some of the emerging tech is and how well it does in replacing existing monetary/financial systems.

For example, there are some promising coin-backed tech that if adopted as intended would basically nullify the need for credit cards. Not so much from the credit side of things, but in terms of quick access to cash that can be accessed/transferred around the world nearly instantly. The technology these companies are developing expect to provide similar speeds and reliability of VISA but at significantly cheaper rates for merchants.

That's just one example. There are plenty of others that actually aren't completely linked with financial/monetary systems at all.

I think it's insane to think that none of this tech (and therefore the coin markets associated with them) will become major players in the future. Obviously it could be years or even decades, and the eventual king coins may not even be on the market yet.

But some form of cryptocurrency is here to stay IMO. What that looks like and how it fits into our current industries/platforms will depend on the success of these companies, technologies, coins, etc. Many coins will eventually die off but some will survive because it's just illogical to assume otherwise.

And they don't need to exist as some 'rebel' version of money to be successful. It's the tech that these companies are developing that could one day be extremely valuable. There's no telling if the coins they've deployed now will retain value once all the tech is available, but that doesn't really matter in today's calculation because there should be a good long period in which many coins (ie. successful ventures or those with a lot of potential) will produce huge returns.

Trading the currencies for profit may not last forever but I think we're a very far cry from them (collectively) being worthless.
You are in many ways correct, but central banks around the world will only tolerate currency that they do not control the issuance of for so long. Control of money and credit is the only purpose of their existence.

I think that they will allow cryptocurrencies to propagate until the public at large sort of gets used to it, like credit cards. Then they will come out with some kind of global/universal cryptocurrency with which people can pay taxes, and outlaw in some way all other cryptocurrencies, and "Voila!", you have yourself a global currency ready to replace the dollar and every other reserve currency. Then you outlaw the use of physical cash in transactions...you know..because drug dealers and terrorists use cash...and you have yourself the New World Currency, controlled by a single central, private bank, that will issue coins, to nations and governments, at interest. All the nations on the planet will be in debt to the private banksters, and all the people of the world will be working to pay off that debt, forever, because it can't be paid off, and then we will all ahve our Universal Utopia at last.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:26 AM   #146
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The biggest thing people outside of cryptos don't understand is that the majority of them aren't meant to be currencies. They aren't here to replace the USD. Most of them are currencies/tokens built to support specific technologies being developed.

Also, to those in this thread holding some, hope you're resisting the urge to sell during this bloodbath
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Old 01-17-2018, 11:28 AM   #147
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Gold and Silver have inherent value, because they nicely fulfill all the required properties of money. I won't bother telling you what they are, because I know you are immune to anything non-Keynesian, but it is those properties which made gold universally considered valuable by civilizations all over the world, throughout time, over and over again. I guess the Keynesians figure that's just a happy coincidence or something.

Incidentally, the things you mention on The Walking Dead have value, but they are not "money". There is a fundamental difference.
What are "all the required properties of money"?
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Old 01-17-2018, 12:57 PM   #148
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What are "all the required properties of money"?
Baron might be right about this, though he'd have the properties reversed. There is nothing inherently valuable about gold but, seeing as we're mere partially civilized apes, there appears to be something inherent to humans that finds value in shiny rocks.

Of course, this says nothing about what the value of gold is at any point in time, it just means that, even in a disaster scenario where gold becomes worthless, it will likely become valued again at some future point.
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:05 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
Baron might be right about this, though he'd have the properties reversed. There is nothing inherently valuable about gold but, seeing as we're mere partially civilized apes, there appears to be something inherent to humans that finds value in shiny rocks.

Of course, this says nothing about what the value of gold is at any point in time, it just means that, even in a disaster scenario where gold becomes worthless, it will likely become valued again at some future point.
I don't disagree with the "ooh shiny" aspect, but I don't think that's a required property of money. And I wasn't being snarky (for once), but just interested in what Baron considered to be the required properties of money, and why, then, gold had all of them.

For me, portability is probably one of the most important requirements of money and I don't think gold does very well in that regard. I think it performs better in other areas which could be considered requirements, though (being hard to destroy for instance?).
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:24 PM   #150
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