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Old 12-22-2017, 08:58 AM   #46
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Is there a moderate anything in the Middle East?
Lebanon is fairly moderate. Jordan, too.

But, generally, "no"...especially the ones that run around waving guns and flags like a middle east version of rednecks.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 12-22-2017, 09:30 AM   #47
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Speaking of which....the Russians are bombing the sh*t out of our strongest "moderates" in Syria right now in Abu Dali.

Tahrir-al-Sham, (Free Syrian Army Name), aka Jabhat-al-Nusra (AL Qaeda Name) is getting bombs for Christmas!

These are the phukkers that have been releasing gas attacks using chemicals from the captured Tekkim chemical plant 5 years ago this month...

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=94c_1354787624

Today, they are eating high explosives! Allahu Akbar!
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 12-22-2017, 06:15 PM   #48
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It is well documented by this point. There isn't, and never was, any such thing as "moderate rebels" in Syria outside of the Kurds. The FSA and ISIS were the same groups, they even had the same leaders and used the same flags to identify themselves. They just used the FSA flag when taking deliveries.

The best part was the Pentagon maps showing FSA territory, and the video footage from that territory showing ISIS flags!
So the flags were the same, but they had to switch them when they took deliveries?

If they were the same, then why did they need to switch?

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Old 12-23-2017, 09:47 PM   #49
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Simple question.

What do you think would have happened in Iraq if we hadn't de-Baathisized?

Just what do you think the Shiaa majority would have done if they were left in power?

I think they would have been the ones who would have been the major source of an insurgency, instead of the Sunni's.

Think of it this way.

Suppose that Jews were the majority of the population in Germany at the end of WWII.

Would you suggest that de-Nazification would be "idiotic"?

What do you think would be the reaction of the Jewish majority?

So tell me, assume you're fully in charge of Iraq after the invasion, what do you do?

How do you keep the various ethnic and religious groups from starting an insurgency?

And no, not invading in the first place is not an acceptable answer. You've already declared de-Baathification is "idiotic", which means you must know of something smarter to do.

So enlighten us.
Oh..I dunno, self determined democracy like we (lyingly) said we were there to spread? The plan (in place for years) was to not essentially criminalize the Baathists in the army, probably because we thought they'd get all ISIS-y. Read 'Fiasco' if you haven't already- Bush blew up a well considered strategic plan because... ?

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Old 12-25-2017, 06:52 PM   #50
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Oh..I dunno, self determined democracy like we (lyingly) said we were there to spread?
So the 2005 elections where what then?

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Originally Posted by benhamean View Post
The plan (in place for years) was to not essentially criminalize the Baathists in the army, probably because we thought they'd get all ISIS-y. Read 'Fiasco' if you haven't already- Bush blew up a well considered strategic plan because... ?
I haven't read it, enlighten me.

What was this plan that had been "in place for years"?

If it actually did envision leaving significant Baathist Sunni's in position of power, how did it address the anger that would create amongst the Shia? How would it prevent a Shia based insurgency?

For me the calculus is simple.

Leave the Sunni in positions of power and one enflames the Shia, leading to them launching an insurgency.

Depose the Sunni and one runs the risk of a Sunni based insurgency.

The simple math of the matter is that the Shia vastly outnumber the Sunni, in Iraq, so it makes sense that if one has to piss off one group, choose the smaller one.

So shy is that such a plan "idiotic"?

Why would leaving the Baathists in place have been a better idea?
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Old 12-26-2017, 10:14 AM   #51
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So the 2005 elections where what then?



I haven't read it, enlighten me.

What was this plan that had been "in place for years"?

If it actually did envision leaving significant Baathist Sunni's in position of power, how did it address the anger that would create amongst the Shia? How would it prevent a Shia based insurgency?

For me the calculus is simple.

Leave the Sunni in positions of power and one enflames the Shia, leading to them launching an insurgency.

Depose the Sunni and one runs the risk of a Sunni based insurgency.

The simple math of the matter is that the Shia vastly outnumber the Sunni, in Iraq, so it makes sense that if one has to piss off one group, choose the smaller one.

So shy is that such a plan "idiotic"?

Why would leaving the Baathists in place have been a better idea?
The entire army was disbanded.
The Iraqi army soldiers and lower level commanders, as well as lower level civil servants (who knew how to do shit), were all purged along with the upper level Baathists. This made a shit-ton of unemployable and armed men, rather than people who, out from under the boot of Saddam and his lackeys, would assist in the reconstruction. The plan I mentioned was to keep the Iraqi army intact, pay them, and utilize them for reconstruction and security. Bush disbanded it instead.

http://pfiffner.gmu.edu/files/pdfs/A...Iraq%20PDF.pdf

Bush via Bremer made enemies of thousands of Iraqis that they didn't need to (all the Sunnis, not just the top level Baathists), allowed a security vacuum (no local army, and an inadequate US presence) which allowed for sectarian mayhem which brought in psycho islamists cutting off heads and such from all over the globe, created a situation where a new army with no experienced members had to be created from scratch (and some here in the US ridiculed them for the slow progress towards competency they made), and precipitated the formation of ISIS.

Petreaus, belatedly, reached back out to the Sunnis to try and keep the war from being lost completely. Yay SURGE! Sunni AWAKING!

Shit never had to happen.
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Old 12-26-2017, 11:07 AM   #52
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The simple math of the matter is that the Shia vastly outnumber the Sunni, in Iraq, so it makes sense that if one has to piss off one group, choose the smaller one.

So shy is that such a plan "idiotic"?

Why would leaving the Baathists in place have been a better idea?
Because the Sunni's have the financial and military support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and the United States indirectly. It's no accident that the Sunni's have dominated Iraq for 400 years, despite being a minority.

Counting heads means nothing geopolitically or strategically, in Iraq or anywhere else. What matters is power, not population. Only power.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 12-26-2017, 05:01 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by benhamean View Post
The entire army was disbanded.
The Iraqi army soldiers and lower level commanders, as well as lower level civil servants (who knew how to do shit), were all purged along with the upper level Baathists. This made a shit-ton of unemployable and armed men, rather than people who, out from under the boot of Saddam and his lackeys, would assist in the reconstruction. The plan I mentioned was to keep the Iraqi army intact, pay them, and utilize them for reconstruction and security. Bush disbanded it instead.

http://pfiffner.gmu.edu/files/pdfs/A...Iraq%20PDF.pdf

Bush via Bremer made enemies of thousands of Iraqis that they didn't need to (all the Sunnis, not just the top level Baathists), allowed a security vacuum (no local army, and an inadequate US presence) which allowed for sectarian mayhem which brought in psycho islamists cutting off heads and such from all over the globe, created a situation where a new army with no experienced members had to be created from scratch (and some here in the US ridiculed them for the slow progress towards competency they made), and precipitated the formation of ISIS.

Petreaus, belatedly, reached back out to the Sunnis to try and keep the war from being lost completely. Yay SURGE! Sunni AWAKING!

Shit never had to happen.
You still haven't answered the question.

What would the Shia have done had that plan been followed?

My position is that we would have had a Shia insurrection instead of a Sunni one.

Why would that have been better?

Why do you think the Shia wouldn't have responded to the plan you advocate with their own insurrection?
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Old 12-26-2017, 05:07 PM   #54
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Because the Sunni's have the financial and military support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and the United States indirectly. It's no accident that the Sunni's have dominated Iraq for 400 years, despite being a minority.

Counting heads means nothing geopolitically or strategically, in Iraq or anywhere else. What matters is power, not population. Only power.
Of course counting heads is important when is discussing an insurgency.
The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea.
That's a quote from Mao, someone who knew a thing or two about insurgencies against "power".

It is a fundamental strategy in counter-insurgency warfare to isolate the insurgents from the civilian population.

The civilians provide cover, resources, and recruits for the insurgents.

The smaller the population, the smaller the sea, and the less one has to do to "drain the sea".
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:01 PM   #55
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You still haven't answered the question.

What would the Shia have done had that plan been followed?

My position is that we would have had a Shia insurrection instead of a Sunni one.

Why would that have been better?

Why do you think the Shia wouldn't have responded to the plan you advocate with their own insurrection?
What they eventually ended up doing years later?

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Old 12-26-2017, 10:02 PM   #56
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Of course counting heads is important when is discussing an insurgency.
The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea.
That's a quote from Mao, someone who knew a thing or two about insurgencies against "power".

It is a fundamental strategy in counter-insurgency warfare to isolate the insurgents from the civilian population.

The civilians provide cover, resources, and recruits for the insurgents.

The smaller the population, the smaller the sea, and the less one has to do to "drain the sea".
Your analogy is a poor one, both sides were equally supported financially and technologically, but you may have misunderstood my point.

Finance and technology outweighs population....such as the Spaniards and Inca, or White folks against the American Indians, or in modern times the Israeli's vs the Palestinians.

Nations are conquered and governed by superior finance and technology, not numbers. If it were numbers, the US would have lost nearly every war we ever engaged in.

Now guerilla tactics can be effective in disrupting governance, such as in Afghanistan against the Russians, but that is generally only against occupation, or in certain civil war scenarios, such as the American Revolution, where the "willpower" to rule can be drained.

However, if you look at Africa or the Colonial era, or the Mongols, numbers are meaningless. Better weapons and more wealth make minorities the governing power all over the world, throughout the ages.

Sunnis have dominated Iraq since the Ottoman empire, despite being a minority. There are many examples in Africa where minorities govern through wealth and firepower even today.

Force multipliers such as wealth and technology overcome demographics every time.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 12-29-2017, 03:32 PM   #57
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The next ISIS mission is looking to be the New Silk Road.

ISIS numbers growing fast near China’s New Silk Road, says Russia
Moscow ready to work with Washington on Afghanistan, amid talk of covert US support for terror

Top Russian diplomat Zamir Kabulov said over the weekend that Moscow is ready to sit down with Washington to discuss cooperation on Afghanistan.

The development comes despite speculation that the US is enabling the destabilization of the region. In its report on the Russian diplomat’s statements on Saturday, Turkish news outlet Yeni Safak recalled former Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s October interview with Russia’s RT, during which Karzai pointed the finger at the US for the ISIS buildup in the country.

“Since the arrival of Daesh [an Arabic acronym for ISIS] on the Afghan scene,” the US has taken no action against them, Karzai said.

“From the two years onwards to today, every day the local people, the local elders, government officials, media and others began to report that unmarked helicopters, unmarked foreign helicopters, would go in and support extremists in all parts of the country,” he added.

Special envoy Kabulov said in his comments over the weekend that the number of ISIS militants in Afghanistan has now grown to 10,000.

Canadian organization Global Research wrote in July that Washington’s efforts to destabilize the region stretch into Pakistan, a key segment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The paper states that disrupting China’s economic lifelines is an open objective of US policy makers, citing multiple papers published by US think tanks.

Research from the Strategic Studies Insitute of the US Army’s War College stated as far back as 2006 that:

Foreign policy realists, citing history and political theory, argue that inevitably China will challenge American primacy and that it is a question of “when” and not “if” the U.S.-China relationship will become adversarial or worse.

The Global Research report suggests that the US has aims to foment independence movements in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, the location of the port of Gwadar, an important lynch pin in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, Washington would like to conflate separatist and other extremist groups with ISIS as a way of disassociating militants from the United States:

Previously, the United States has attempted to use a variety of local groups to foment political instability and violence. Now it appears that all of its geopolitical mischief is being lumped under the catch-all, the “Islamic State.” In reality, the militants who kidnapped and murdered the two Chinese teachers in Baluchistan, Pakistan, were likely local militants the US has been backing for years, and whose role in destabilizing Pakistan is increasingly understood by local and global audiences.

Assigning blame to the Islamic State appears to be a means of disassociating America from the violence it is intentionally fueling across the region.


http://www.atimes.com/article/near-c...0-says-russia/

Incidentally, Pakistan is having elections in July, and it looks like the muslim fundamentalists are going to oust the US controlled moderates if something isn't done.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 02-13-2018, 07:47 AM   #58
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Confirmed: US retrains ISIS and ISIS-like jihadists in east Syria and re-brands them ‘democratic forces’ (VIDEO) – Exclusive

BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:00 A.M.) – Clear-cut evidence has emerged that the United States is retraining jihadist militants – most of them surrendered ISIS members as well as fighters of other militant groups with an ideology similar to that of ISIS – in east Syria and re-branding them as ‘democratic forces.’

After many, many months of complaints by Russian military and diplomatic authorities that US advisor forces in Syria’s east were retraining ISIS and ISIS-like militants, a video (shown below) released by the Deir Ezzor-based opposition media outlet Euphrates Post has confirmed it.

The video is the centerpiece in a puzzle of otherwise vague information that has been leaked about US intelligence activities in east Syria over the last year.

It should be made clear that the Arab fighters in the video below do not belong to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) proper, but rather a lesser known off-shoot militia called the Deir Ezzor Military Council (DMC).

DMC forces are – unlike the SDF – the project of the US Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency, separate from Pentagon initiatives and bureaucratic processes.

Fighters of the DMC are on the Department of State payroll (i.e. individuals receive a paycheck) which technically makes them US-vetted mercenaries instead of just ‘US-backed fighters’ (that implying military support from US military agencies only).

The history of DMC forces prior to their re-flagging under US initiatives is interesting. Most DMC fighters fall into two categories:

1. Syrian rebels or Euphrates tribesmen who merged into ISIS ranks during the terrorist group’s takeover of the Deir Ezzor region in 2013-2014 and then later surrendered to the SDF.

2. Jihadists of the Al-Qaeda affiliate group Jabhat al-Nusra (as it was called at the time) who battled government forces in Deir Ezzor until 2014 and were later expelled from the region by ISIS (after refusing to join ranks) and then absorbed by US intelligence in Jordan.

These are the ‘ISIS people’ that Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, General Valery Gerasimov warned about in late December 2017 when he claimed that over one thousand re-flagged ISIS and ISIS-like militants were being trained and equipped by US advisor forces in east Syria.

Over the last few days, and on at least one occasion before that, DMC forces have attacked positions of the Syrian Army and allied paramilitary groups in Deir Ezzor province without provocation (or any other kind of defensive pretext) at the towns of Khasham and At-Tabiyyah.

Both official SDF and other US coalition sources have failed to make any remark on the confrontational activities of the DMC and the simple reason for this is that neither the SDF (on its own) or US coalition bureaucracy is responsible for DMC actions – only the CIA is, and it has no obligation to publicly disclose information about its projects.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...deo-exclusive/

Seems our tax money is still pouring into jihadi fanatics. Give em a new name, a new flag, and keep the money and support pouring in....SOP.

Here is their website, if anyone is interested in seeing what our money is buying us.

https://www.ypgrojava.org/english

I don't imagine this will last forever...the Kurds and the jihadi's are not a match made in heaven, but only of temporary convenience.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 02-13-2018, 09:27 AM   #59
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Word is that the White Helmets are preparing to stage another "gas attack" provocation event in Idlib. They just trucked in a whole bunch of Chlorine, apparently.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:28 PM   #60
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I assume this "word" comes from Vlad directly?
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