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Old 04-16-2012, 05:33 PM   #61
midgar8784
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Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
Do you really need this explained again? Last time:

For a single late first rounder, you get a perpetual 2nd round and an average 5 spot improvement in the first round the following year, with the chance of really making a leap up.

So, you can choose one Logan Mankins.

I prefer Spikes, Gronk, Vollmer and access to Mayo and Wilfork when my own pick would have been Ben Watson-esque every single decade.
No I need it explained to me why this team cannot draft a wide receiver that makes this team. Just let me know which year I am going to see this marked improvement in the defense, we have been waiting for. Thank god we hit the jackpot with gronk, or these last few drafts would be looking pretty thin.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:35 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
This draft is a bit quirky in that after picks 8-10, depending upon who you read, the next 10-12 picks offer about the same value. After that, there is another group of players of about 20-25 who offer similar value.

To keep math simple, with 10 in tier 1 and 10 in tier 2 the Pats won't get to choose one without a tradeup to 18-20 which I doubt BB will do. There's always a possibility a tier 2 player will slide to 27 but that's not expected.

If you're BB, where do you see the best value? He could choose to use both 1st round picks but if the opportunity presents itself to trade back, why not do it since pick 27 offers little more value (and a shorter contract) than pick 40? I expect at least 1 of the 1st round picks to be traded back and I expect a 2nd round pick to be traded for a 2013 1st round pick. It's the Belichickian way.

The other thing to think about is this draft is VERY deep in DTs; probably deeper in DTs than WRs even. BB can pick a very good DT well into the 2nd or even the 3rd round.

I'm thinking that there also may be a possibility (though not a huge one) that, if one of your Tier-2 players slips to #23 - someone who BB REALLY likes and who the Steelers might also covet - he might trade UP that far. Such a deal (with the Lions) might work out something like:

#27 + #93 for DET's #23 + #158 + #219

BB would then retain the option to trade the #31 down, perhaps something like:

#31 + #219 (from DET) to Philly for #46 + #88 + #194

After that, he'd still have the option to trade the #48 for a 2013 1st rounder.

The "net" for the two 1st-rounders would be:

A Tier-2 player
two spots higher in the 2nd
a 2013 1st rounder
five spots higher in the 3rd
a 6th rounder that he didn't have

Not a huge haul, but an increase in value overall.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:36 PM   #63
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Very good analogy. It pays a 40% annual dividend (in the form of an immediate second or third rounder) and gives you return of principal with regular growth. Even in the years you didn't actually grow it, like 2004, it feels like growth based on how much higher access you had than your own pick that year.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:36 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
Very good analogy. It pays a 40% annual dividend (in the form of an immediate second or third rounder) and gives you return of principal with regular growth. Even in the years you didn't actually grow it, like 2004, it feels like growth based on how much higher access you had than your own pick that year.
On the other hand, I would like to have a good defense before Brady retires.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:38 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by midgar8784 View Post
No I need it explained to me why this team cannot draft a wide receiver that makes this team. Just let me know which year I am going to see this marked improvement in the defense, we have been waiting for. Thank god we hit the jackpot with gronk, or these last few drafts would be looking pretty thin.
OK, so evidence contradicts your earlier whining, so you shift gears and bitch about something else?

:lame:
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:40 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
OK, so evidence contradicts your earlier whining, so you shift gears and bitch about something else?

:lame:
No, my problem for quite a while is missing out on players...it has not changed. Like I said before the value of a draft picks is determined by who is actually taken...I have seen misses while trading down quite a few times. So I guess insulting me is better than answering the question. If the trading and moving and collecting of draft picks was putting us over other teams in drafting then I would be fine with it...its not.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:42 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by midgar8784 View Post
No, my problem for quite a while is missing out on players...it has not changed. Like I said before the value of a draft picks is determined by who is actually taken...I have seen misses while trading down quite a few times. So I guess insulting me is better than answering the question.
If you think your questions haven't been answered, you haven't been paying attention.

Thanks for the fun middy, but for my own sanity you are going on ignore. Enjoy the 2012 season.
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Old 04-16-2012, 05:44 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Oswlek View Post
If you think your questions haven't been answered, you haven't been paying attention.

Thanks for the fun middy, but for my own sanity you are going on ignore. Enjoy the 2012 season.
Typical Owslek, when I ask something he cannot answer its insults and then sign off. So can anyone answer why the misses on so many receivers and for that matter DB's? I swear if BB traded up this year, and took a player, Owslek would be the first one to run in and say what a smart move it was and he knew it all along.

Last edited by midgar8784; 04-16-2012 at 05:50 PM..
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Old 04-16-2012, 07:03 PM   #69
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I really think the trading down and picking up extra picks has paid huge dividends in roster depth. We don't have two or three marquee players that have to carry the team, but a team that is good from top to bottom. It makes us a contender every year. I understand midgars frustration that this method doesn't seem to get us all the way to the top, but a I love the fact we are in the mix every year. We could easily have won it all last year or been eliminated by the Ravens. The fact remains that because of our deep bench, we have a chance. having suffered through the 70's and 80s as the laughing stock of the league, I really appreciate and enjoy this approach.
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Old 04-16-2012, 11:14 PM   #70
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I really think the trading down and picking up extra picks has paid huge dividends in roster depth. We don't have two or three marquee players that have to carry the team, but a team that is good from top to bottom. It makes us a contender every year. I understand midgars frustration that this method doesn't seem to get us all the way to the top, but a I love the fact we are in the mix every year. We could easily have won it all last year or been eliminated by the Ravens. The fact remains that because of our deep bench, we have a chance. having suffered through the 70's and 80s as the laughing stock of the league, I really appreciate and enjoy this approach.


I think that they built things just fine, but our defense I think at this point lacks real playmakers and I think it has hurt us, so I would like to see one come in. Yes and I know, its a spoiled thing as I remember those years to...but I will say, then you knew what the team was, and it was less frustrating watching them try and build than now of having a great team, but lacking a couple of playmakers to put them over the top on defense can be frustrating.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:17 AM   #71
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midgar,
What team, in your opinion, is the draft model then?
What roster do you wish you trade places with? The Packers - maybe, but their D has been absolutely shredded in several of the last playoffs. The Giants- maybe- but they often miss the playoffs.
Every team has holes, and typically, the holes remain the same over time.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:26 AM   #72
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I figured it may be worth mentioning that the Pats drafting system, while imperfect, has allowed this team to stay somewhere between very competitive to dominant every single year despite its existence in a league that is set up to reverse the fortunes of the good teams by giving them correspondingly weaker draft slots.

BB's patience and philosophy is the one constant and I believe in the scouting department headed by Nick Caserio.

There have been no 8-8 seasons, or worse. Somehow.

Our system is the envy of the league. We rebuilt the team without any down years even though the deck was stacked against us draftwise and came within one healthy ankle of winning it all again. It's amazing, really.

If BB trades our two firsts for a bunch of unsexy picks and decides the 3rd round round is where the players that he wants are then I'm willing to go along with it as long as we can continue to do what we've been doing.

Winning is what it all about and we do that more than anybody else year in and year out. I'm good with the status quo and a stunning lack of instant gratification on draft day.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:28 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by midgar8784 View Post
No I need it explained to me why this team cannot draft a wide receiver that makes this team.
I have a theory on this. I think most Pats fans are dead wrong about what the pats look for in a wr. I see people write goofy things all the time, like "The PAts prefer the cone drill to the 40- it is a better indicator of agility..."

This is incorrect and anecdotal. Pure and simple, the Pats like fast wide receivers. They value the 3 cone, but they value it less than pure speed. When they draft one in the top three rounds, he is-more often than not- one of the very fastest guys at his position. Bethel Johnson- super fast- 4.3 fast. Chad Jackson, fastest 40 for wr's. Taylor Price had a top 5 forty time. Tate wasn't timed fast, but he was coming off surgery. His film was electric and based on speed. While, Branch ran an a great cone drill, but he still ran a 4.47 forty.

Now, my theory in college, coordinators scheme to break down coverage. These fast agile college wr's, who are far more athletic than almost every college db covering them, don't read and react. The just go and get open. They have always done that. That doesn't work here and they struggle.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:52 AM   #74
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Every team has a hole or two.

Our Achille's is drafting and developing WR's.

But I don't really care. We a more than adept at targeting WR that fit through our Pro Player Scouting Dept. and we've hit massive HR's there.

WW.

Moss.

Now even Lloyd, when everyone around him was signing 5 yrs $45+ mil we lock him up for $4mil.

If that is our biggest issue I'm good with it.

Just continue this draft with the infusion of youth and aggressiveness on Defense.
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Old 04-17-2012, 09:28 AM   #75
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Jeff Risdon of RealGM is out with his annual predictions for the draft.

Quote:
1. All three teams that have two first round picks (Cincinnati, Cleveland, New England) will trade the second of their two picks and all will drop at least four spots from the #21, #22, and #31 spots respectively.
Not surprising, for the Pats. Cincy and Cleveland both need more players.
2. After some truly crazy swings in general consensus, Arizona State Brock Osweiler ultimately usurps Brandon Weeden as the 4th quarterback to come off the board. He will be picked in the 30-40 range by a team not currently holding the slot in which he goes.

3. There will not be any tight ends taken in the first round, but the Colts quickly remedy that by selecting Andrew Luck's Stanford teammate Coby Fleener with the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. You will hear the tired cliché "A young quarterback's best friend is a tight end" at least 20 times during the draft coverage.
Makes perfect sense unless the Giants take him with 32, which I expect.
4. One of the surprise draft-day risers will be Ole Miss tackle Bobby Massie. Even though most pundits/draftniks have him currently going no earlier than the middle of the 3rd round, Massie will wind up being a top 40 pick. He will be drafted before the more heralded Jonathan Martin, who (deservedly) slides out of the top 40. Massie has much greater potential even if Martin is probably the better player today.
Martin has been mentioned as a boom/bust player by more than 1 analyst. I like Massie a lot.
5. The first player drafted that was not at the Combine will be Miami OH guard Brandon Brooks. He will be drafted in the 50-64 overall range and will prove worthy of that lofty a draft slot pretty quickly. After Brooks, there will not be another non-Combine invitee drafted before the compensatory picks at the end of the 4th round.

6. Off-field issues will keep North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins out of the top 40 picks even though on pure athletic talent the Florida transfer is definitely in the top 10 overall in this draft. Between his multiple failed drug tests and basketball team of children with different mothers, no team will take that big of a risk on him. I know of at least four teams that have him completely removed from their draft boards.
Some team will get a steal with this guy in the 2nd round if true.
7. The Oakland Raiders currently don't have any picks before #97 overall, a compensatory pick that cannot be dealt, but they will engineer a trade and wind up drafting in the 30-45 overall range. They will take a pass rushing defensive end with the pick, perhaps Marshall's Vinny Curry.
Oh, I hope so!
8. Arizona State LB Vontaze Burfict was a top 20 fixture in every mock draft before last October. But poor play, sloppy weight gain, lousy instincts, and myriad poor decision on the field will relegate Burfict to undrafted status. According to a scouting friend of mine, that makes him the winner of the Jevan Snead honorary trophy of failed hype.

9. The New York Jets are going to be aggressive and trade up to select South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram inside the top 10, swapping first rounders this year and sacrificing their 2013 first round pick to move up. This is a make-or-break year for both coach Rex Ryan and GM Mike Tannebaum, so the future 1st is easy to give. Most likely trading partner: Cleveland at #4.
Ingram may be able to help their D but don't the Jets really need an OT to go along with Tebow and to replace Hunter?
10. Speaking of the Browns, they will be involved in three trades in the first round. They will deal #4 and fall back, then deal up from where they fell back to by adding one of their 3rd round picks to select either Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon. And as stated above, #22 will be dealt as well as the Browns comfortably fall backwards and still get Brandon Weeden as their QB with their 2nd round pick.

11. One of the surprise fallers will be North Carolina DE Quentin Coples. In the top 10 of nearly every mock draft as recently as a month ago, Coples' perceived lack of passion and lethargic 2011 will drop him out of the top 15. He will follow a similar draft trajectory as Cam Jordan a year ago but probably not fall all the way to #24 like Jordan did.
As I said before, he's an Aston Martin with a Prius Hybrid engine.
12. Three specialists will be drafted, two of them from the University of Georgia. Kicker Blair Walsh and punter Drew Butler will both get selected in the 6th round, while Texas A&M kicker Randy Butler will come off the board in the 7th. There is always the variable of the Patriots' strange propensity for drafting either a long snapper or a special teams ace with no real position...

13. Much will be made about Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill, a freakish athlete coming from a 1970's era triple option offense which threw the ball about 10 times per game. This will somehow be listed as a great asset for him, whereas receivers like Rueben Randle and Devier Posey that are more polished but come from offenses with lousy QB play will get docked for that. Hill will be favorably compared to former Yellow Jacket Demaryius Thomas at least 17 times during draft coverage. He might be, but it's near impossible to ascertain that from his limited tape.
But...but... is gone...
14. The first FCS player (that's I-AA for you) drafted will be Montana DB Trumaine Johnson. He has great size and is a willing hitter but is a bit of a corner/safety tweener. Johnson will be drafted in the first 45 picks, though I do not rate him that highly. I prefer Coastal Carolina corner Josh Norman.
I actually like Trumaine Johnson a lot but not this high.
15. A lot of pundits will forecast a flurry of trades at the top of the 2nd round, but I think the real action will be at the end of the 3rd round. Teams will get anxious as Friday night winds down and don't want to miss out on desirable players still on the board, preferring to go into Saturday will less to think about. Teams like Green Bay, New England, and San Francisco that hold some of the final picks of the round will be happy to oblige and trade out.
It's the Belichick way.
18. The Arizona Cardinals will make a big move, trading up into the bottom of the first round after already selecting an offensive lineman with their pick at #13 overall. They will use that extra pick on a pass rushing OLB/DE type, either Andre Branch or Nick Perry. It will require them jumping in front of the Packers.
Perry, please.
19. Chicago will raise the heat on disgruntled franchise RB Matt Forte. They've already signed Michael Bush, but they will add fuel to the fire by using their 2nd round pick on Miami RB Lamar Miller. New GMs like to make their mark.
How dumb would this be?
20. This year's winner of the Mike Mitchell Head-Scratching Reach of the Year will be Toledo CB Desmond Marrow. Mitchell was a late-round prospect who the Raiders surprisingly took in the 2nd round in 2009 after a tremendous workout season. Marrow is my #23 cornerback with a 6th round grade and I'm probably higher on him than most, but his incredible size (6'3.5", 210) and speed (he's run a 4.45) will lure some team to take him as high as the middle of the 3rd round.
Too bad he has pizza paddles for hands.
21. Three later-round matches made in heaven: Tulsa QB GJ Kinne to the Packers, Utah State RB Michael Smith to the Lions, and Oklahoma State OL Levy Adcock to the Steelers. As long as none of those come before the 5th round I wholeheartedly endorse them.

22. Last year Detroit stunned everyone by using their 1st round pick on Nick Fairly, a player at their position of least perceived need. This year the team that pulls that stunt will be the Patriots. Last year New England drafted two running backs, Shane Vereen in the 2nd and Stevan Ridley in the 3rd. They still have Danny Woodhead. They have two solid fullbacks in Tony Fiametta and Spencer Larsen. That will not stop them from using a 1st round pick on Boise State RB Doug Martin. It also won't stop them from using a late-round pick on yet another hybrid fullback/H-back/tight end. When you have more draft picks than job openings every year, stuff like this happens...
Mayoclinic's prediction!
25. Every team will select at least one wide receiver in this incredibly deep class. As many as 12 wideouts will be taken in the 50-100 overall range. The irony is that while the class is deep, it's not deep with impact players; most of the guys project as secondary wideouts or sub-package contributors. Two that will go at least a round later than they should: Fresno State's Devon Wylie and Arizona's Juron Criner.
Does Wylie look like Welker on the field to any one besides me?
26. As few as 10 tight ends will be drafted, and they will be drafted in the following order: Colby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Ladarius Green, Orson Charles, Michael Egnew, David Paulson, Deangelo Peterson, George Bryan, Rhett Ellison, and Chase Ford. I'm not including hybrid FB/H-back guys. I'm also not including SMU defensive end Taylor Thompson, who is converting to tight end and will be drafted between picks 90-110 despite the fact he never played an offensive snap in college. And you thought Ryan Tannehill in the top 10 was a stretch...

27. When Boston College LB Luke Kuechly starts to drop--and he will--many analysts will shake their heads in disbelief and disgust. But the truth is that linebackers that are not pass rushing threats don't carry the kind of value that merits a top 15 overall pick. AJ Hawk, Aaron Curry, and Rolando McClain--all of whom were more widely highly regarded than Kuechly--have proven the folly of using a top 10 pick on that type of player. Kuechly may very well be one of the 5 highest-graded players in this draft, but draft grade does not always correlate to draft position. I think he goes to Chicago at #19 but he could fall to Pittsburgh at #24.
Pittsburgh has their sights on Upshaw.
28. Jacksonville will trade back from the #7 pick, finding a taker with a team looking to secure Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox. The Jaguars will happily fall back a few spots and get Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd or Stanford G David Decastro. The trade partner? Kansas City at #11.
I can see KC doing this for Cox but not for DeCastro.
30. Atlanta will trade it's 2nd round pick to add two additional third round picks. The Falcons traded away their 1st round pick already (to get Julio Jones) and GM Tom Dimitroff will be looking for more value to build depth on the team. At least one of the acquired picks will be used to address the offensive line.

31. The Carolina Panthers will spend their entire draft on defense except for a middle round pick they will use on an offensive lineman. They will come away with two immediate starters in the first two rounds, one a defensive lineman and one a cornerback. On the Panthers front, you won't hear boo from any of the myriad critics of Cam Newton from a year ago. http://football.realgm.com/src_encro...012_nfl_draft/
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