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Old 07-08-2009, 01:03 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by O.Z.O. View Post
sticking to this point while ignoring everything else mentioned in conjunction with it weakens your argument.

But, if you want to talk about something that will break your heart, continue to believe that The Won is still as popular as he was 6 months ago and that the American public will continue to blame Bush for the problems we currently face.
I'm not ignoring anything. If you cherry pick a single poll, you will be heartbroken, whatever way you're swinging.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:07 PM   #47
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Rasmussen. .

Now, on the flip side, Gallup.



Now you've seen the outliers, the truth is in the middle.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:08 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Steve-o View Post
believing absolutely nothing but Rasmussen, is going to break your heart.
For the record, I really could care less what Obama's approval rating is.

I'm just doing some analysis of his current polling data, reflecting on what has happened to his approval rating over the past 6 months, and making some predictions for the future.

I'm not emotionally invested in any of this, so my heart is safe.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:10 PM   #49
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LOL, beat me to it.

I would say the congressional numbers look pretty good if I am rooting for Republicans.

Dems have lost ground, Republicans have gained ground, and even pulled ahead by a couple % points in the last 2 weeks.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:11 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
For the record, I really could care less what Obama's approval rating is.

I'm just doing some analysis of his current polling data, reflecting on what has happened to his approval rating over the past 6 months, and making some predictions for the future.

I'm not emotionally invested in any of this, so my heart is safe.
Right here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/oh-no-ohio.html

Quote:
Obama's approval ratings have declined nationwide by perhaps 3-5 points since early May. I have little doubt that this has mostly to do with the flagging economy. Each day, a few more voters are going to blame Obama for the economic troubles that we're in. If the economy seems to be showing some "green shoots", as it did in March and April, then Obama will be fine -- voters don't expect the economy to turn around overnight. But if the economy isn't showing any signs of life -- and most of the economic news for the past 45 days or so has been pretty grim -- he'll fail to keep pace with those modest, but ever-increasing, expectations, and his approval ratings will decline.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:12 PM   #51
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For the record, NONE of these pollsters asked me my opinion of Obama, and I think Obama totally f*cking sucks donkey balls.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:13 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
LOL, beat me to it.

I would say the congressional numbers look pretty good if I am rooting for Republicans.

Dems have lost ground, Republicans have gained ground, and even pulled ahead by a couple % points in the last 2 weeks.
Broken hearts, guys. It's going to be difficult (but fun) to watch you guys down the road.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:14 PM   #53
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I know nothing of this "Nate Silver" character, but I'll go out on a limb and say that he probably has an Obama poster on his wall, as well as the commemorative dinner plates that were issued upon his inauguration.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:14 PM   #54
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Rasmussen. .

Now, on the flip side, Gallup.



Now you've seen the outliers, the truth is in the middle.
Huh?

I see a nosedive for Dems in recent weeks in this graph you are using.

You're actually using a -13% approval drop in June as a counterpoint?

EDIT: that's a -13% approval amongst DEMOCRATS, by the way...lol
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
Dude, Baron has been a valued member of this forum for quite some time.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:14 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Steve-o View Post
Rasmussen. .

Now, on the flip side, Gallup.



Now you've seen the outliers, the truth is in the middle.

uh...Steve,


that graph you showed...that shows Congressional performance approval based on the party affiliation of the respondents...not how each party's Congressional performance is seen. It means nothing.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:15 PM   #56
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Broken hearts, guys. It's going to be difficult (but fun) to watch you guys down the road.
What road are we taking now? Are there signs that say "Socialism - This Way" on them?
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:26 PM   #57
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I think his analysis of Ohio is way off there...way off.

He doesn't seem to grasp a real understanding of why his approval has plummeted in Ohio, he just completely glosses over it.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:36 PM   #58
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I think his analysis of Ohio is way off there...way off.

He doesn't seem to grasp a real understanding of why his approval has plummeted in Ohio, he just completely glosses over it.
have you read any of the comments under that article? Delusionaly out of touch for the most part, several complete and total fabrications of numbers and statistics.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:36 PM   #59
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I think his analysis of Ohio is way off there...way off.

He doesn't seem to grasp a real understanding of why his approval has plummeted in Ohio, he just completely glosses over it.
That's because he's writing his "blog" while he's eating a hot pocket off the commemorative Obama inauguration plate.
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:37 PM   #60
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uh...Steve,


that graph you showed...that shows Congressional performance approval based on the party affiliation of the respondents...not how each party's Congressional performance is seen. It means nothing.
You're right on that, yes.

So, here are a couple polls breaking things down by party. Unfortunately, RCP doesn't provide a summary by party.

Research 2000, June 29-July 2 (outlier):
Dems Favorable 44% Unfavorable 49%
Pubs Favorable 13% Unfavorable 71%



If you look at those Rasmussen numbers, both parties in Congress have hovered around 40% for the last two years.

And we all know that is bullshit.
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