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Old 03-24-2020, 05:06 PM   #556
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I take exception to calling this a pandemic too. 1918 was a pandemic. 100M dead. This, not so much. And if this is a pandemic, there is one every year, called the flu.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:34 PM   #557
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I am a fightin' Texas Aggie and we have one of the best post-graduate networks in the country. I check in with this network for real, on the ground perspectives. Here's a message from one of our now physicians, posted today:

Quote:
We have some very positive news also! The combination of hydroxychloroquine and zithromax is starting to be used widely in many trials and reports are still very encouraging. Early reports are now saying that we have yet to see a patient on this combination require a ventilator. This is very early but still encouraging. If can slow down the amount of critical patients and deaths, this virus will just become a 2 wk netflix binge. And contrary to a doctor on CNN this is not a highly dangerous drug that has not been tested. He is right in that it has limited testing with COVID but it has been out for 65 years and we have tremendous experience with many other diseases. Yes, it has many side effects as I have pointed out previously. Some are considered serious but they are not common and if you are positive for COVID-19 in my opinion the benefits probably outweigh the risks. Certainly, if it is available I will definitely be using it in my patients, family or even myself. There is also a trial started in healthcare workers to see if it prevents the virus. So that should be interesting news, if it does and we can protect the healthcare workers this would be a huge breakthrough in getting things back to normal.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:47 PM   #558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsFan09 View Post
So quick question : do you credit Obama for the phenomenal economic recovery that took place during his second term in office?
Why would anyone?

The economy was champing at the bit, waiting to be unleashed. It's why it took off so aggressively when Trump took office and began deregulating.
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:03 PM   #559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tehmackdaddy View Post
I am a fightin' Texas Aggie and we have one of the best post-graduate networks in the country. I check in with this network for real, on the ground perspectives. Here's a message from one of our now physicians, posted today:
The big question I'd have for your fellow Aggie, is what is the profile of the patients where this has been successful.

Were they in one of the higher risk categories? i.e., older and/or with some other medical condition.

If they are not, then is their "recovery" simply emblematic of how this disease is really only a mortality risk for someone in those high risk groups?

Or to put it more in a Texas "style", I'd ask, well ah... is this medication a case of burning down the barn to get roasted pig?
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:05 PM   #560
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Sitting here just now, I realized something....

Regarding these senators in quarantine...the state legislatures can simply appoint a senator to represent them temporarily, and it would be completely Constitutional.
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:17 PM   #561
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
Sitting here just now, I realized something....

Regarding these senators in quarantine...the state legislatures can simply appoint a senator to represent them temporarily, and it would be completely Constitutional.
Probably not.

First the Senate seats in question would have to be considered "vacant". Not sure them simply being quarantined would count.

Hell they are no less able to carry out their duty than any US Senator running for POTUS.

The latter are out of Washington and fail to be present for votes for large swaths of time and no one suggested they be replaced.

If they are considered "vacant" then the details of what happens depends on the State as explained here.

Regardless if an appointment is made, it is done by the Governor, not the Legislature.

The full text of the 17th Amendment makes this clear.
The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.

When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.

This amendment shall not be so construed as to affect the election or term of any Senator chosen before it becomes valid as part of the Constitution
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Old 03-24-2020, 07:14 PM   #562
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
Saw this today from the John Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

It's a Global Health Security Index and was prepared in 2019.

Countries are graded on six categories on a scale of 0 to 100.

The US ranks #1 overall and in 4 of the 6 categories.

It's interesting to see where Italy ranks in some of these categories.

It's over all score is #31 @ 56.2, compared to the US score of 83.5.

For the "prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens" they score 47.5 for #45. The US is #1 a@ 83.1.

For the "early detection & reporting for epidemics of potential international concern" they score 78.5 for #16. The US is #1 @ 98.2.

For "rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic" they score 47.5, for #51. The US is #2 @ 79.7.

For "sufficient & robust health system to treat the sick & protect health workers" they score 36.8 for #54 The US is #1 @ 73.8

So the US scores twice as high as Italy on this criteria. So why do we think our health care system will mimic what has happened in Italy?


Hide this from Roberto.. his head will explode...
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:34 PM   #563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsFan09 View Post
Wait, are you honestly trying to saying that the stock market and economy did not surge from 2012-2016?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Put words in my mouth?

Where did I say that?

I posted an article. In that article the single most important paragraph is blatantly clear:

Quote:
Meanwhile, the stock market has surged under Trump. According to a Fox Business analysis, the stock market grew 31 percent in the 807 trading days before Trump's election, but grew by 56 percent in the 807 trading days after it, up through the third anniversary of Trump's inauguration this January.
So yes, the economy went up. And then it skyrocketed.

---------- Post added at 10:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:27 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by patswin View Post
I take exception to calling this a pandemic too. 1918 was a pandemic. 100M dead. This, not so much. And if this is a pandemic, there is one every year, called the flu.
Agree 100%

---------- Post added at 10:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehmackdaddy View Post
Why would anyone?

The economy was champing at the bit, waiting to be unleashed. It's why it took off so aggressively when Trump took office and began deregulating.
Deregulation and tax breaks sent the economy skyrocketing

---------- Post added at 10:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwight Schrute View Post
From Hannity tonite:

Attachment 103771

The doctor prescribes 200mg chloroquine twice a day for 5 days, 500mg of azithromycin once a day for 5 days, and 220mg of zinc sulfate once a day for 5 days.

Heís treated 350 patients in his town and another 150 in surrounding burroughs.

0 deaths.

0 hospitalizations.

0 intubation.


Couple this with the French study of a smaller test group but similar results and itís pretty clear they have a treatment.

End this already.
I already posted the exact cure.

Youíre welcome,
Dr. Schrute
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:41 PM   #564
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
Sitting here just now, I realized something....

Regarding these senators in quarantine...the state legislatures can simply appoint a senator to represent them temporarily, and it would be completely Constitutional.
Lol!!!!

Just heard on Hannity as they wait for a vote that there is rumor the missing Senators are on route in hazmat gear!

Lol!
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Old 03-25-2020, 02:35 AM   #565
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
The big question I'd have for your fellow Aggie, is what is the profile of the patients where this has been successful.

Were they in one of the higher risk categories? i.e., older and/or with some other medical condition.

If they are not, then is their "recovery" simply emblematic of how this disease is really only a mortality risk for someone in those high risk groups?

Or to put it more in a Texas "style", I'd ask, well ah... is this medication a case of burning down the barn to get roasted pig?
Two things can be true at once:

1) That information was certainly anecdotal and definitely not in line with a statistical study.
2) It is still encouraging that more physicians are attempting the treatment and believe in its efficacy.
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Old 03-25-2020, 06:31 AM   #566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsFan09 View Post
Wait, are you honestly trying to saying that the stock market and economy did not surge from 2012-2016?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
The Obama Stock Market went from 7479 to 20,685 (Jan 21,09-Jan 20, 17)
For Trump 20,685 to it's peak 29,398 before CV-19 kicked in.

---------- Post added at 06:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:29 AM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehmackdaddy View Post
Why would anyone?

The economy was champing at the bit, waiting to be unleashed. It's why it took off so aggressively when Trump took office and began deregulating.
That's totally not true
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Old 03-25-2020, 06:38 AM   #567
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
Probably not.

First the Senate seats in question would have to be considered "vacant". Not sure them simply being quarantined would count.

Hell they are no less able to carry out their duty than any US Senator running for POTUS.

The latter are out of Washington and fail to be present for votes for large swaths of time and no one suggested they be replaced.

If they are considered "vacant" then the details of what happens depends on the State as explained here.

Regardless if an appointment is made, it is done by the Governor, not the Legislature.

The full text of the 17th Amendment makes this clear.
The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.

When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.

This amendment shall not be so construed as to affect the election or term of any Senator chosen before it becomes valid as part of the Constitution
Yes, you're right about the Governor part, I was thinking of the original Constitution where Senators were appointed by the legislature before that got changed.

I didn't research it, I was just sitting on my sofa sipping a mug of chaga tea and it hit me so I posted off the top of my head.

Thanks for the clarification.

As far as what qualifies as a "vacancy", I don't think that is defined, but there are probably some statues somewhere regarding that. I would think "Unable to fulfill their duties" should be a qualification, whether it is Corona virus or a stroke or whatever.

As much as I dislike him for doing it, McCain showed up to vote against repealing Obamacare when he had one foot in the grave, already...these fucking weenies can show up, including Rand Paul, whom I am a fan of.

It's time to MAN UP!
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 03-25-2020, 08:45 AM   #568
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipKat View Post

That's totally not true
Sure it is.
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Old 03-25-2020, 08:46 AM   #569
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States Say Doctors Are Stockpiling Trial Coronavirus Drugs ó For Themselves

http://archive.is/VC8e1#selection-431.0-431.75

Not shocking.

I'll bet that the Washington politicians are getting a lot of prescriptions written also.

The same doctors and politicians telling us to hold our horses and not get our hopes up, and that it;s all anecdotal, and that it's dangerous, and all that.

In other words, they are important enough to make the decision for themselves, but the unwashed masses are too stupid to make decisions for themselves.
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Who is this self-important instigating douche-bag, anyway?
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Old 03-25-2020, 08:56 AM   #570
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"Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?"
Quote:
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET


If itís true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But thereís little evidence to confirm that premiseóand projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rateó2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of casesóorders of magnitude largeróthen the true fatality rate is much lower as well. Thatís not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of VÚ, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of VÚ were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. Thatís more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italyís case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Icelandís first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. Itís plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isnít a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesnít catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers havenít adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.

The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, thatís a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We donít know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If weíre right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

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