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View Poll Results: Are you psyched about Pats making offer to Gillislee or would you prefer another RB?
Yes, I like Gilleslee a lot 27 69.23%
Would have preferred Blount 2 5.13%
I wanted AP 2 5.13%
I wanted Lynch 2 5.13%
I wanted the Pats to draft a RB 5 12.82%
Zombies 3 7.69%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 39. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-18-2017, 01:27 PM   #1
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Patriots reportedly extend offer sheet to bills rb mike gillislee

Looks like we are getting our RB. I am pumped!

By Ryan Hannable

The Patriots are interested in Bills running back Mike Gillislee. (Timothy T. Ludwig/USA Today Sports)

It looks like the Patriots might get their running back.

According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, the Patriots have extended an offer sheet to restricted free agent running back Mike Gillislee of the Bills. It’s for two years, and $6.4 million with $4 million coming in the first year.

The Bills have until Friday to match, which is the deadline. Otherwise he will be a member of the Patriots and they would have to give Buffalo a fifth-round pick.

It’s worth noting the Patriots structured the deal so it will be tough for the Bills to match considering their cap situation for 2017. This would be the second straight offseason the Patriots signed a Bills restricted free agent, as last year it was Chris Hogan.

If Gillislee signs, it likely means the Patriots would be set at the running back position and LeGarrette Blount would be out of the picture. The Patriots reportedly made Blount an offer this offseason, but obviously he didn’t sign it.

For more Patriots news, visit weei.com/patriots.
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Old 04-18-2017, 01:36 PM   #2
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I love it.

Would have made a great poll question, btw.
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Old 04-18-2017, 01:37 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thomas144 View Post
I love it.

Would have made a great poll question, btw.
Just added poll ...
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"No order except for Tom being the best. He does things those other guys [Manning, Brees] can't do. His pocket presence is better, he throws a better ball than those guys. He's a winner – better than all those guys."
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"Brady is the greatest of all time ... the consistency, every single year he does it. And he doesn't have, all time, the greatest players around him." - Jim Kelly
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Old 04-18-2017, 01:45 PM   #4
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The Pats have built a roster from Browns and Bills castoffs in recent years.

Hogan, Gilmore and now probably Gillislee from the Bills. Think maybe Rex Ryan could be feeding info to BB to get back at the Bills? I do. For certain.
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Old 04-18-2017, 01:52 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
The Pats have built a roster from Browns and Bills castoffs in recent years.

Hogan, Gilmore and now probably Gillislee from the Bills. Think maybe Rex Ryan could be feeding info to BB to get back at the Bills? I do. For certain.
I don't think Bill needs Rex to feed him anything. He saw the talent on the Bills teams first hand twice a season. The Bills may have had one of the most talented rosters to not make the post-season the last few years.
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Old 04-18-2017, 01:52 PM   #6
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Interesting range of weights of Pats RBS

220 Gillislee
210 Burkhead
205 White
195 Lewis
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:01 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by spacecrime View Post
Interesting range of weights of Pats RBS

220 Gillislee
210 Burkhead
205 White
195 Lewis

Analytics. Burkhead and Gillislee were 1-2 in running efficiency (% of 1st downs and yds gained) last year on Football Outsiders and Numberfire.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/...of-the-century

Quote:
If I asked you to list the most efficient running backs this season, chances are Mike Gillislee's name would not come up. If I expanded that question to the last 16 years, it's virtually certain it won't.
No one seems to be talking about the Buffalo Bills' second-stringer at all. But they should be; he's earned it.
Here's why.
Gillislee's Season

When evaluating efficiency, we have to move past the raw numbers like total yards -- those can be products of volume. Instead, we require a metric that measures the average gain on any given play.
For running backs, yards per carry is a seemingly logical place to start measuring efficiency. However, while it has some value, it leaves much to be desired. Instead of relying solely upon a simple statistic like yards per carry, we at numberFire use a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP).
NEP factors the value of down and distance as well as standard box score information to measure a player's impact on his team's scoring expectation. It's a cumulative statistic, so to measure efficiency, we need to look at Net Expected Points per play. You can learn more about NEP in our glossary.
Despite all of that -- let's start simple and see how Gillislee fares by traditional measures.

Last edited by chevss454; 04-18-2017 at 02:07 PM..
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:52 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime View Post
Interesting range of weights of Pats RBS

220 Gillislee
210 Burkhead
205 White
195 Lewis
with so many teams going to a glorified safety in the LB role wouldn't it make sense to use a smaller quicker back to get past the DL line but who can still outrun the hybrid LB/S - No longer do you need the 235 -255 LBS RB.
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Old 04-19-2017, 09:57 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Think maybe Rex Ryan could be feeding info to BB to get back at the Bills? I do. For certain.
Hmm, now that's an interesting thought.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:03 PM   #10
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If the Bills don't match, this may be our best collection of RBs since Bill took over.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:13 PM   #11
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More from Numberfire

Quote:
Even by superficial metrics, Gillislee excelled this season. His 5.71 yards per carry trailed only Ty Montgomery and Jalen Richard and led teammate LeSean McCoy. In fact, Gillislee's yards per carry ranked 14th-best since 2000. When it comes to scoring, only McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott scored more touchdowns among the top 10 -- and they had more than two to three times as many carries.
In fact, among backs with fewer than 200 carries, only Latavius Murray had more touchdowns; he scored 12 in 195 attempts, but his yards per carry wasn't high enough to make the top 10. He averaged 4.04 yards per carry, only good enough for 30th out of 56 qualifying running backs.
That illustrates one of the problems with using yards per carry to measure efficiency: it doesn't factor in touchdowns. Hide that column in the above chart and it would be easy to say that Jalen Richard and Ty Montgomery had more efficient seasons than Gillislee. Obviously, touchdowns matter.
Advanced Metrics

Richard and Montgomery may have the lead in yards per carry, but both Rushing NEP and Rushing NEP per carry tell a different story. The gap between them and Mike Gillislee becomes even clearer when factoring Success Rate, or the percentage of plays that contribute positive NEP.
Let's look again at the most efficient running backs (minimum 75 carries), this time by Rushing NEP per play.
For reference, the average Rushing NEP per play for running backs this season was -0.02. In other words, the average back was losing his team 0.02 points every time he carried the ball.
Name Team Rushes Rushing NEP Rushing NEP/P Success Rate
Mike Gillislee BUF 101 30.53 0.30 57.43%
LeSean McCoy BUF 234 36.69 0.16 45.73%
Kenneth Dixon BAL 88 13.00 0.15 47.73%
Bilal Powell NYJ 131 18.71 0.14 49.62%
Jalen Richard OAK 84 11.07 0.13 47.62%
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 321 35.79 0.11 47.04%
Devonta Freeman ATL 227 23.07 0.10 46.26%
Jay Ajayi MIA 260 20.99 0.08 43.46%
Ty Montgomery GB 77 5.80 0.08 45.45%
Le'Veon Bell PIT 261 19.13 0.07 44.83%



Wow. Mike Gillislee.
His numbers make even the closest rivals look silly. His 0.30 Rushing NEP per play nearly doubles the second place mark, set by his backfield mate.
In 133 more carries, McCoy added only 6.16 more Rushing NEP than Gillislee did -- and Ezekiel Elliott only added 5.26 extra Rushing NEP in 220 more carries.
Gillislee's 57.43% Success Rate -- also league-leading -- explains some of how he managed that. It means that on 58 of his 101 rushing attempts he contributed positive NEP, a rate that is practically unheard of. League average for running backs this season was 40.28%.
Bilal Powell posted the second-best mark with 49.62%, nearly eight percentage points lower than Gillislee, yet still an excellent Success Rate.
"Touchdown Mike"

I found Gillislee's excellent numbers shocking. I knew when I started my research that his season had been excellent, but I was not prepared for just how impressive it was. So I set out to poke holes in it. Minor spoiler, though I suspect you've already guessed it: I failed.
But I did learn some interesting things in the process. As his nickname implies, Mike Gillislee received a billing as the Buffalo Bills' red zone back. To be fair, it did seem like he got more than his share of high-value opportunities.
But like many things coaches say, the reputation as a red zone back they gave Gillislee turned out not to be true. He carried the ball a total of 18 times in the red zone, a team market share of 17.8% -- slightly more than McCoy's red zone carry percentage of 16.2%.
However, red zone rushes did in fact have a higher average NEP this season: 0.04, or 0.06 greater than the overall average of -0.02. But Gillislee's red zone efficiency was otherworldly. He posted a staggering 0.93 Rushing NEP per play in the red zone, with an equally staggering (and unsustainable) 83.33% Success Rate. He clearly did bolster his efficiency with his red zone carries, but here's the catch.
His Rushing NEP per play outside the red zone was 0.15 with a 49.4% Success Rate, still good enough to rank second, after only McCoy. And that includes McCoy's 38 red zone carries.
In other words, his red zone efficiency may be unsustainable, but he still ran with impressive efficiency outside of it.
A Place in History?

Since 2000, the extent of our database for NEP, no running back with at least 75 carries has recorded a better Rushing NEP per play than Mike Gillislee in 2016. The table below compares his numbers to the other backs in the top five by Rushing NEP per play.
YearNameTeamRushesRushing NEPRushing NEP/PRushing NEP/P Pos AvgSuccess Rate
2016Mike GillisleeBUF10130.530.302-0.0257.43%
2002Moe WilliamsMIN8425.090.298-0.0357.14%
2011Darren SprolesNO8724.430.28-0.0251.72%
2015Karlos WilliamsBUF9324.900.27-0.0449.46%
2008Kevin FaulkNE8321.970.26-0.01
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/...of-the-century
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:20 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazz22 View Post
If the Bills don't match, this may be our best collection of RBs since Bill took over.
Agree
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:31 PM   #13
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Bills Expert‏ @Bills_Expert
Pats obviously think Gillislee will be their #1 RB to make him their highest paid RB AND give us a 5th. MATCH OFFER!
Belichick > Dumb Whaley




Bills fans aren't happy.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:34 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Bills Expert‏ @Bills_Expert
Pats obviously think Gillislee will be their #1 RB to make him their highest paid RB AND give us a 5th. MATCH OFFER!
Belichick > Dumb Whaley




Bills fans aren't happy.
LOL. Bills should have tendered him at #2. Would have only cost then $1 mil more. Now they will have to pay $4 mil and only get a 5 back.

Chess/Checkers.

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Old 04-18-2017, 02:47 PM   #15
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Giving touches to four running backs - Lewis, White, Burkhead, and Gillislee - seems like a stretch. White was terrific last year so he's not leaving us this year. Lewis is the odd man out in my mind & he could be on the trading block depending how he does in camp.

Highlights for Touchdown Mike
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