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Old 02-16-2020, 11:36 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
His role was certainly diminished this year but I can't attribute it to a sudden loss of skills. I don't think Dorsett changed or that it was Dorsett at all to be honest.

Maybe Brady's elbow injury limited his accuracy & his ability to throw deep but I'm not even convinced of that.

----

Brady ranks 26th in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. His completion percentage over expectation is sitting at -0.4%, which also ranks 26th per Next Gen Stats. That means Brady is completing fewer passes than we should expect based on the separation of his receivers, the pressure heís facing, the length of his attempts as well as other factors. You cannot put this all on his teammates. The offense, as a whole, is bad. The numbers say Brady is making it worse.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/tom...ense-struggles


New Englandís receivers are hauling in an average rate of catchable throws (77%), and passes to Edelman, Bradyís most targeted player, are producing 7.2 yards per attempt, the third-highest rate between them since they became teammates in 2009. Passes from Brady to Edelman are also producing 3.5 more points than expected per 100 snaps after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia.
Brady was the second-most valuable passer of 2016 per ESPNís Total Quarterback Rating only to fall to third in 2017, sixth in 2018 and 15th in 2019. His 56.4 QBR this year (2019) suggests his performance is good enough to fuel a team to a 9-7 record during a 16-game regular season. That would be the lowest QBR of his career, below the 62.1 he recorded in 2013. There are other warning signs. His passes are as shallow as they have been since at least 2006, the first year data is available, traveling just 7.2 yards past the line of scrimmage on average. Thatís a yard less than the league average and two yards less than his output from 2017. A career-high 24 percent of his passes have been thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, while just 10 percent of his passes are deep balls (20 or more yards), perhaps more signs Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels donít have as much faith in Bradyís arm as they used to.

Bradyís completion rate also falls from 75% in a clean pocket to 35% (the worst among qualified quarterbacks in 2019, per Pro Football Focus)
when facing pass pressure, and his passer rating drops from 105.8 to 48.5 in those same situations, one of the worst ratings among qualified quarterbacks. (For comparison, a quarterback will earn a 39.6 passer rating for an incomplete pass.) Brady produced passer ratings under pressure of 71.1 in 2018 and 95.8 in 2017.
https://www.boston.com/sports/new-en...te-quarterback
<fingers in ears> Na na na, la la, la la, la la, I can't hear you. OLINE, WRs, RBs, COACHING, TEs, WRs. It was raining. It was snowing. Referees. Wind. Red seats. Coaching turnover. Injuries. Giselle. No crowd noise. It ain't Tom's fault.

Stidham, Stidham, he's our man.
Tom can't do it, but Stidham can!
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:43 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
His role was certainly diminished this year but I can't attribute it to a sudden loss of skills. I don't think Dorsett changed or that it was Dorsett at all to be honest.

Maybe Brady's elbow injury limited his accuracy & his ability to throw deep but I'm not even convinced of that.

----

Brady ranks 26th in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. His completion percentage over expectation is sitting at -0.4%, which also ranks 26th per Next Gen Stats. That means Brady is completing fewer passes than we should expect based on the separation of his receivers, the pressure he’s facing, the length of his attempts as well as other factors. You cannot put this all on his teammates. The offense, as a whole, is bad. The numbers say Brady is making it worse.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/tom...ense-struggles


New England’s receivers are hauling in an average rate of catchable throws (77%), and passes to Edelman, Brady’s most targeted player, are producing 7.2 yards per attempt, the third-highest rate between them since they became teammates in 2009. Passes from Brady to Edelman are also producing 3.5 more points than expected per 100 snaps after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each throw, per data from TruMedia.
Brady was the second-most valuable passer of 2016 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating only to fall to third in 2017, sixth in 2018 and 15th in 2019. His 56.4 QBR this year (2019) suggests his performance is good enough to fuel a team to a 9-7 record during a 16-game regular season. That would be the lowest QBR of his career, below the 62.1 he recorded in 2013. There are other warning signs. His passes are as shallow as they have been since at least 2006, the first year data is available, traveling just 7.2 yards past the line of scrimmage on average. That’s a yard less than the league average and two yards less than his output from 2017. A career-high 24 percent of his passes have been thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, while just 10 percent of his passes are deep balls (20 or more yards), perhaps more signs Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels don’t have as much faith in Brady’s arm as they used to.

Brady’s completion rate also falls from 75% in a clean pocket to 35% (the worst among qualified quarterbacks in 2019, per Pro Football Focus) when facing pass pressure, and his passer rating drops from 105.8 to 48.5 in those same situations, one of the worst ratings among qualified quarterbacks. (For comparison, a quarterback will earn a 39.6 passer rating for an incomplete pass.) Brady produced passer ratings under pressure of 71.1 in 2018 and 95.8 in 2017.
https://www.boston.com/sports/new-en...te-quarterback


Dorsett was 133rd out of 141 in receiver separation. Not having Gronk on the field made all the receivers have trouble getting open. Our best receiver getting open was ranked 101st, the Pats were dead last in this stat. So maybe this had more to do with that. Even though People are cheering for Brady to go away, I still think he is by far the teams best option to win, but we have to get some players in here that can get open and require more than single coverage. Teams had no issues covering the pats receivers last year. As far as Pressure, once again, when pressure comes quickly receivers are even less open. Also, not sure how we can get people deep, when they cant get open and dont have time to get deep. 32nd in the league of receivers not getting open, I wonder what kind of QB we will need to make that work. Stidham?
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Old 02-16-2020, 06:04 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime View Post
<fingers in ears> Na na na, la la, la la, la la, I can't hear you. OLINE, WRs, RBs, COACHING, TEs, WRs. It was raining. It was snowing. Referees. Wind. Red seats. Coaching turnover. Injuries. Giselle. No crowd noise. It ain't Tom's fault.

Stidham, Stidham, he's our man.
Tom can't do it, but Stidham can!

Calm down Cindy Brady might still play here next year and I would hate to see you have to cheer against the Patriots. Anyway this was also a stat from advanced stats....



"After all, the 42-year-old passer was still among the most accurate in all of football in 2019: he ranked third in the league in PFF’s accuracy+ statistic and 10th in accuracy including throws on target and within a receiver’s frame with a rate of 61.9%. Furthermore, Brady’s catchable inaccuracy — passes that are either high, low, in the front or the back of a receiver — ranks as the fourth best in the league. He put balls where he needed to."

"What does stand out in particular was Brady’s ability to throw the football deep and still remain accurate: compared to the league average he was 11.5% more accurate on deep throws even though only 25 of 62 attempts were actually completed. Still, for a quarterback oftentimes inaccurately branded as a dink-and-dunk passer, Brady was good when it came to thrown the deep pass — even though New England failed to regularly capitalize."
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:17 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Patriots71 View Post
Dorsett was 133rd out of 141 in receiver separation. Not having Gronk on the field made all the receivers have trouble getting open. Our best receiver getting open was ranked 101st, the Pats were dead last in this stat. So maybe this had more to do with that. Even though People are cheering for Brady to go away,
No one is cheering for him to go away. His declilne is as sad as it is real.

You keep throwing out unsubstantiated figures and stats. Are you making them up? Because they contradict published figures. Like the one you refuse to read:

Quote:
Brady ranks 26th in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. His completion percentage over expectation is sitting at -0.4%, which also ranks 26th per Next Gen Stats. That means Brady is completing fewer passes than we should expect based on the separation of his receivers, the pressure heís facing, the length of his attempts as well as other factors. You cannot put this all on his teammates. The offense, as a whole, is bad. The numbers say Brady is making it worse.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/tom...ense-struggles
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:27 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patriots71 View Post
Calm down Cindy Brady might still play here next year and I would hate to see you have to cheer against the Patriots. Anyway this was also a stat from advanced stats....



"After all, the 42-year-old passer was still among the most accurate in all of football in 2019: he ranked third in the league in PFF’s accuracy+ statistic and 10th in accuracy including throws on target and within a receiver’s frame with a rate of 61.9%. Furthermore, Brady’s catchable inaccuracy — passes that are either high, low, in the front or the back of a receiver — ranks as the fourth best in the league. He put balls where he needed to."

"What does stand out in particular was Brady’s ability to throw the football deep and still remain accurate: compared to the league average he was 11.5% more accurate on deep throws even though only 25 of 62 attempts were actually completed. Still, for a quarterback oftentimes inaccurately branded as a dink-and-dunk passer, Brady was good when it came to thrown the deep pass — even though New England failed to regularly capitalize."
Link? Or are you making shit up again?

Ignoring the fact that you're bragging because Brady is a tad better than average, and that it is somehow to his credit that he completed 25 of 62 deep throws, you didn't have to watch too many games in 2019 to see that Brady sailed a ton of balls and was often behind a receiver or in the dirt. He used to be VERY accurate. I think he was hurt this year, but that's just the reason he was missing receivers.

And spare me all the receivers were running the wrong route excuses.

I've always liked the idea that it is better to let a player go a year too soon rather than a year to late. If Stidham doesn't replace Brady this year, he will next year. No way we see two more years of Brady. Two years will be at least one year too late.
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Old 02-16-2020, 11:01 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by spacecrime View Post
Link? Or are you making shit up again?

Ignoring the fact that you're bragging because Brady is a tad better than average, and that it is somehow to his credit that he completed 25 of 62 deep throws, you didn't have to watch too many games in 2019 to see that Brady sailed a ton of balls and was often behind a receiver or in the dirt. He used to be VERY accurate. I think he was hurt this year, but that's just the reason he was missing receivers.

And spare me all the receivers were running the wrong route excuses.

I've always liked the idea that it is better to let a player go a year too soon rather than a year to late. If Stidham doesn't replace Brady this year, he will next year. No way we see two more years of Brady. Two years will be at least one year too late.
Yes I made all that up. I didnt say receivers were running the wrong routes. I said they couldnt get separation. Learn to read. I always liked the idea that you go with players that give you the best chance to win, not ones you have no idea if they can win. You dont even know if Stidham is even the replacement. YOu can talk about how many balls Brady sailed, but I gave you some stats, so maybe you only look for certain things when you watch games. Did you see a lot of stidham? You got a good read on him? Did he win a lot of games for us? Yet you are cheer leading him. I mean I get it, you dont like Brady and you want him gone. I however want to keep winning while we have him. Still a very competitive team and you dont blow up a competitive team, you get pieces to get better.

---------- Post added at 10:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:55 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime View Post
No one is cheering for him to go away. His declilne is as sad as it is real.

You keep throwing out unsubstantiated figures and stats. Are you making them up? Because they contradict published figures. Like the one you refuse to read:
YOu literally just cheered for him to go away. lol

https://www.patspulpit.com/2020/1/30...uarterback-nfl


See the thing is, Brady might not be able to cover up bad offense anymore, its possible, he did for so many years, he might actually need good players now, but guess what...so does a QB who has never played in the NFL. I get that you think Stidham drops in and we win 7 superbowls, but the reality is, it wont happen. So as I said, Brady gives us the best chance to win. Brady here or not here, this offense had major issues at receiver and TE. When you are 3rd in drops and last in separation (something else you refuse to get) you are going to have struggles, I dont care who your QB is. Nobody knows this offense like Brady, nobody knows defenses like Brady, he is a great leader and he knows this team. All that goes away with him if he leaves.

With that said. I don't care either way. This has been the least stressful season ever. I am ready for someone else to get all the media blurbs, and I am ready for every story not to be about what team Brady has been rumored to go to. It went beyond stupid about a month ago. So by all means, someone sign him if he wants to play and then everyone can shut up for awhile, because honestly I have never seen a good Qb get this kind of treatment. Eli got more praise by giant fans. Pats fans have become too spoiled to even get history and what has happened over these years, but that could very well end pretty soon, and we will long for the days when an afc title loss was a bad season.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:38 PM   #37
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The Pats trade the 23rd pick for A) OBJ or B) Stefon Diggs.


How would you like either guy? I'd like either one just fine.
Both are playmakers who draw extra coverage.



Diggs has deleted everything on his IG account related to the Vikings.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:44 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
The Pats trade the 23rd pick for A) OBJ or B) Stefon Diggs.


How would you like either guy? I'd like either one just fine.
Both are playmakers who draw extra coverage.



Diggs has deleted everything on his IG account related to the Vikings.
I think it would be a great start and would do wonders for Harry. Harry is a big guy and can make tough catches, but he is not running rub routes.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:46 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
The Pats trade the 23rd pick for A) OBJ or B) Stefon Diggs.


How would you like either guy? I'd like either one just fine.
Both are playmakers who draw extra coverage.



Diggs has deleted everything on his IG account related to the Vikings.
They're both divas...OBJ is moar talented, but, probably moar fragile too. Wouldn't a 3rd round pick be enough?
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:42 AM   #40
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A career-high 24 percent of his passes have been thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage
tells me they tried to manufacturing a run game with screens and dumps since straight up hand offs failed oh too often.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:11 PM   #41
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They're both divas...OBJ is moar talented, but, probably moar fragile too. Wouldn't a 3rd round pick be enough?

I'd take either 1 in a heartbeat.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:20 PM   #42
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Brady, Hunter Henry, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jamie Collins all to the Pats in this article. All with generalized salaries that seem to be fair, albeit without the details that are important.

Thuney to MIA and Van Noy to DET in the departure department.


https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-fr...-50-free-agent


3. QB Tom BradyNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million per year ($60 million guaranteed)

Everyone is enthralled with the possibility of soon-to-be 43-year-old Tom Brady leaving the team he started his career with. However, let’s be sensible here and consider that this is likely just a hell of a marketing ploy and an attempt to scare Bill Belichick into getting Brady some receiving weapons. His time has passed from elevating a group of no-name receivers, but he’s still a top quarterback in this league. Brady was still the 12th highest-graded quarterback of 2019 and is just a year removed from being a top-five quarterback in grade and WAR.

15. TE Hunter HenryNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 1 year, $9.5 million (fully guaranteed)

The first domino of getting TB12 back to New England might just be bringing in one of the league’s most underrated tight ends, Hunter Henry. In his first two seasons in the NFL back in 2016 and 2017, Henry produced a two-year receiving grade that trailed only Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. After missing 2018 and Weeks 2 through 5 of 2019 due to injury, Henry came and finished the remainder of the year ranking 13th in receiving grade. He isn’t Gronk, but he can line up inline, in the slot or out wide and dominate his opponent better than most tight ends.


27. WR Emmanuel SandersNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 3 years, $10 million per year ($23 million guaranteed)

With Amari Cooper and A.J. Green likely to return to their respective teams, domino number two to woo Brady back to New England is signing veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders. With San Francisco’s cap situation, a Sanders departure is likely and would be one of the few weapons Brady needs in New England to succeed. He’s been one of the 25 most valuable wideouts in each of the past two seasons. Adding him in with Julian Edelman, Hunter Henry and perhaps another receiver with their first-round pick (possibly Henry Ruggs III, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor) could help spark one last title run for Brady and Belichick.


50. LB Jamie Collins Sr.New England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $7.5 million per year ($5.5 million guaranteed)

After playing fairly well with the Patriots in the first three and a half years of his career from 2013 to mid-2016, Jamie Collins went to Cleveland where his career went down into a spiral a bit. He spent the first eight weeks of 2016 in New England and had an 82.9 overall grade before being traded to Cleveland for the remainder of the season. There, he dropped his grade to 54.2 and subsequently posted the worst marks of his career in his two full seasons with the Browns in 2017-18. Collins then returned to New England in 2019 and got back to form, being the 12th most valuable linebacker in the league. Needless to say, Collins might want to find a way to stay with Belichick, who has brought the most out of him.





I'll take it.
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Old 02-19-2020, 03:25 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Brady, Hunter Henry, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jamie Collins all to the Pats in this article. All with generalized salaries that seem to be fair, albeit without the details that are important.

Thuney to MIA and Van Noy to DET in the departure department.


https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-fr...-50-free-agent


3. QB Tom BradyNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million per year ($60 million guaranteed)

Everyone is enthralled with the possibility of soon-to-be 43-year-old Tom Brady leaving the team he started his career with. However, let’s be sensible here and consider that this is likely just a hell of a marketing ploy and an attempt to scare Bill Belichick into getting Brady some receiving weapons. His time has passed from elevating a group of no-name receivers, but he’s still a top quarterback in this league. Brady was still the 12th highest-graded quarterback of 2019 and is just a year removed from being a top-five quarterback in grade and WAR.

15. TE Hunter HenryNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 1 year, $9.5 million (fully guaranteed)

The first domino of getting TB12 back to New England might just be bringing in one of the league’s most underrated tight ends, Hunter Henry. In his first two seasons in the NFL back in 2016 and 2017, Henry produced a two-year receiving grade that trailed only Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. After missing 2018 and Weeks 2 through 5 of 2019 due to injury, Henry came and finished the remainder of the year ranking 13th in receiving grade. He isn’t Gronk, but he can line up inline, in the slot or out wide and dominate his opponent better than most tight ends.


27. WR Emmanuel SandersNew England Patriots

Projected contract: 3 years, $10 million per year ($23 million guaranteed)

With Amari Cooper and A.J. Green likely to return to their respective teams, domino number two to woo Brady back to New England is signing veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders. With San Francisco’s cap situation, a Sanders departure is likely and would be one of the few weapons Brady needs in New England to succeed. He’s been one of the 25 most valuable wideouts in each of the past two seasons. Adding him in with Julian Edelman, Hunter Henry and perhaps another receiver with their first-round pick (possibly Henry Ruggs III, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor) could help spark one last title run for Brady and Belichick.


50. LB Jamie Collins Sr.New England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $7.5 million per year ($5.5 million guaranteed)

After playing fairly well with the Patriots in the first three and a half years of his career from 2013 to mid-2016, Jamie Collins went to Cleveland where his career went down into a spiral a bit. He spent the first eight weeks of 2016 in New England and had an 82.9 overall grade before being traded to Cleveland for the remainder of the season. There, he dropped his grade to 54.2 and subsequently posted the worst marks of his career in his two full seasons with the Browns in 2017-18. Collins then returned to New England in 2019 and got back to form, being the 12th most valuable linebacker in the league. Needless to say, Collins might want to find a way to stay with Belichick, who has brought the most out of him.





I'll take it.
Brady 20 million and keep Devon McCourty too


Lets see what Brees gets before assigning a number. If Tom ask for 30 million, it is a statement signing more than anything about Gronk retiring.



/foil cap
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Old 02-19-2020, 08:59 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
I'd take either 1 in a heartbeat.
Vikes don't plan on trading Diggs...

---------- Post added at 06:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:55 PM ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by chevss454 View Post
Brady, Hunter Henry, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jamie Collins all to the Pats in this article. All with generalized salaries that seem to be fair, albeit without the details that are important.

Thuney to MIA and Van Noy to DET in the departure department.


https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-fr...-50-free-agent


3. QB Tom Brady Ė New England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million per year ($60 million guaranteed)

Everyone is enthralled with the possibility of soon-to-be 43-year-old Tom Brady leaving the team he started his career with. However, letís be sensible here and consider that this is likely just a hell of a marketing ploy and an attempt to scare Bill Belichick into getting Brady some receiving weapons. His time has passed from elevating a group of no-name receivers, but heís still a top quarterback in this league. Brady was still the 12th highest-graded quarterback of 2019 and is just a year removed from being a top-five quarterback in grade and WAR.

15. TE Hunter Henry Ė New England Patriots

Projected contract: 1 year, $9.5 million (fully guaranteed)

The first domino of getting TB12 back to New England might just be bringing in one of the leagueís most underrated tight ends, Hunter Henry. In his first two seasons in the NFL back in 2016 and 2017, Henry produced a two-year receiving grade that trailed only Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. After missing 2018 and Weeks 2 through 5 of 2019 due to injury, Henry came and finished the remainder of the year ranking 13th in receiving grade. He isnít Gronk, but he can line up inline, in the slot or out wide and dominate his opponent better than most tight ends.


27. WR Emmanuel Sanders Ė New England Patriots

Projected contract: 3 years, $10 million per year ($23 million guaranteed)

With Amari Cooper and A.J. Green likely to return to their respective teams, domino number two to woo Brady back to New England is signing veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders. With San Franciscoís cap situation, a Sanders departure is likely and would be one of the few weapons Brady needs in New England to succeed. Heís been one of the 25 most valuable wideouts in each of the past two seasons. Adding him in with Julian Edelman, Hunter Henry and perhaps another receiver with their first-round pick (possibly Henry Ruggs III, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor) could help spark one last title run for Brady and Belichick.


50. LB Jamie Collins Sr. Ė New England Patriots

Projected contract: 2 years, $7.5 million per year ($5.5 million guaranteed)

After playing fairly well with the Patriots in the first three and a half years of his career from 2013 to mid-2016, Jamie Collins went to Cleveland where his career went down into a spiral a bit. He spent the first eight weeks of 2016 in New England and had an 82.9 overall grade before being traded to Cleveland for the remainder of the season. There, he dropped his grade to 54.2 and subsequently posted the worst marks of his career in his two full seasons with the Browns in 2017-18. Collins then returned to New England in 2019 and got back to form, being the 12th most valuable linebacker in the league. Needless to say, Collins might want to find a way to stay with Belichick, who has brought the most out of him.





I'll take it.
So, KVN goes back to the outhouse?

---------- Post added at 06:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:56 PM ----------

If Hunter Henry was ever healthy for a few years, he'd be one of the best in the NFL...but, is he really ever? He IS talented though...
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:37 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikiemo83 View Post
tells me they tried to manufacturing a run game with screens and dumps since straight up hand offs failed oh too often.
Yep it was all product of something. Simulated run game, no time in pocket, getting rid of ball quick to backs out on the flats because guys not getting open on crossers and outs. They were trying a lot of different things to get some generated offense.
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