The 2013 Playoffs.

[Oswlek]

Originally Posted by chevss454

I'll bet you 20K on that Indy pick.

[chevss454]

Originally Posted by Oswlek

So...does this mean you are taking the bet??

[chevss454]

From Kacsmar on Divisional Weekend, the best weekend in sports.

On Balt vs Den

Here’s a key factor people may not be factoring in this week: Baltimore fatigue.
Not only was it an emotional win with Lewis’ last home game on Sunday, but it was physically draining. Indianapolis ran 87 plays on offense. That is the second most in a non-overtime game in postseason history. Offenses averaged 64.2 plays per game in 2012, so think of facing 87 plays as playing about 1.36 games.
It should matter more since the Ravens are playing an early road game this Saturday in Denver’s high altitude against the game’s best no-huddle quarterback.
The Ravens are the 23rd defense to face at least 80 offensive snaps in the playoffs and win the game. Of the previous 22, five came in the season’s final championship game, while four teams were able to rest on a bye week before the Super Bowl.
That leaves 13 playoff teams who faced at least 80 offensive snaps and played the following week. In those games they had a 4-9 record and allowed 26.4 points per game. It is an area that could use some more research, but it is something to keep an eye on this week, especially as the game wears on.
It might have to take a Denver flop-job to lose this one, but the league’s most consistent team should be able to do enough at home to get the job done.
Lewis is a good story, but Manning is on borrowed time himself and the opportunity to become the first quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl with two teams will likely never get better than this.

On GB vs SF

When this Green Bay offense faces the physical defenses that are not afraid to punch them in the mouth, we often see them struggle, and that is easier to do on the road, such as the loss in Seattle when the Seahawks came up with eight sacks in the first half.
The Packers (76.8) actually have a better defensive passer rating than San Francisco (78.0), and are getting healthy with the timely returns of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. This is bad news for Kaepernick, who did not have a good showing in his last game against a solid defense in Seattle.
But even for the more experienced Rodgers, there is this dreadful mark: 0-18 in fourth-quarter comeback opportunities against teams .500 or better.
It is vital for the Packers to play well at the start of the game and control the tempo. While you can expect to move the ball against Harbaugh’s defense, you still do not want to fall behind 14 or more points, especially not if you are worried about your pass protection holding up.
Finally, if this game comes down to a clutch kick, you may want to cover your eyes no matter which team it is. David Akers (13 misses) and Mason Crosby (12 misses) have not been good this season, and that is being nice.
Could easily go either way on this one, but am feeling the home team with the better overall defense and more balance on offense. Harbaugh will take a lot of hindsight heat for benching Smith if Kaepernick fails him miserably in this game. It is hard to see that happening this week.

On Atl vs Sea

Atlanta is the only offense to score 30 points on Seattle’s defense since 2011. San Francisco and Cincinnati exceeded 30 points, but needed return touchdowns to do so. The other four times Seattle allowed at least 24 points have all come on the road.
The Falcons won 30-28 in Seattle last year, and Jones had 11 receptions for 127 yards. White chipped in with six catches for 78 yards. Gonzalez had seven catches for 56 yards and a touchdown while Ryan had zero turnovers. It will take an effort like that again this week.
If Marshawn Lynch is “Beast Mode,” then Michael Turner is…”Altered Beast” these days? The Falcons are going to put the ball in Ryan’s hands often. While they should not abandon the run, this is not a game where Turner reclaims his status as the star of the offense. It has to be Ryan and his receivers winning the battles. A loss would put Ryan with Y.A. Tittle as the only quarterbacks to go 0-4 in the playoffs.
While everyone focuses on Ryan and Smith needing a playoff win, how about poor Gonzalez and his 0-5 record? It is about time the best tight end of this generation gets to experience a playoff win.
No offense to Seattle and their fans, but it is just tiring to hear how the Falcons do not win in the postseason. They have had three isolated chances in the last four years to win a playoff game. It did not happen, but there’s nothing they can do about that in Week 12 or any time we see this team in prime time and someone brings up “0-3” as if they can never get past that.
The Falcons do a lot of great things in games in this Smith/Ryan era. Now is the time to get that monkey off their back and win this playoff game.
Getting the bye week, having home field and the early game, I just see an Atlanta team that will come out prepared to prove a lot of people wrong with a strong performance and a win.

On Pats vs Hou

This is breaking one of my rules of NFL predictions, but I am picking the Houston Texans to win this game.
When I watched the Patriots get a big 42-14 win over the Texans in Week 14, I saw a game where just about anything that could go wrong for Houston did, and that they wouldn’t mind a rematch with the Patriots. Little did I know the rematch would take place in New England with the continued slide by the Texans, but here we are.
No one can look at the first game and not conclude Houston had many opportunities not capitalized:

• Starting the game off badly, Houston was lined up in an illegal formation on the first play from scrimmage, negating a 12-yard run by Arian Foster.
• A bad snap threw off Matt Schaub on 3rd-and-6, but his deep pass still should have been caught by Lestar Jean.
• Houston forced Stevan Ridley to fumble at the 4-yard line, but Kareem Jackson failed to recover the ball. Aaron Hernandez did, and scored a touchdown one play later for a 7-0 lead.
• Schaub threw a bad interception with the ball at the NE 21.
• The Texans stopped New England on a 3rd-and-10, but on a pass Wes Welker was never going to catch, Danieal Manning was flagged for pass interference (26 yards) to continue the drive, which resulted in a touchdown and 21-0 deficit.
• Houston went for it on a 4th-and-5 at the NE 33, but Kevin Walter failed to secure the catch, turning the ball over on downs.
• Donte Stallworth caught a 63-yard touchdown when he could have been tackled around the 30.
• Keshawn Martin dropped a 3rd-and-3 pass that led to another Houston punt.
• To sum up the night, on the second play of the fourth quarter J.J. Watt punches the ball out from Danny Woodhead, and it bounces right to Brandon Lloyd in the end zone for a touchdown.

The Texans have had four bad losses this season, and this was arguably the worst of them. But we are looking at a much different game with better fumble luck and without that pass interference on third down.
We should see a different game this week. Teams losing by at least four touchdowns are a respectable 11-11 in playoff rematches. It was only two years ago that the Patriots suffered the biggest rematch regression in recent playoff history, going from a 45-3 win over the Jets to a 28-21 loss.
The 28-point win leads many to believe Houston has no chance, but the Patriots, a nine-point favorite this week, are 1-7 against the spread in the playoffs since 2007. The only cover was last year against a much overmatched Denver team with Tim Tebow.
During the NBC broadcast on Saturday, Mike Mayock made it sound like 3rd-and-long situations are a monumental task for the Houston passing game. Yeah, Schaub has converted 18-of-73 (24.7 percent) of his plays when it is 3rd-and-8 or longer this year. That certainly trails Tom Brady’s 23-of-70 (32.9 percent) conversion rate.
But it was only two years ago that Schaub was the “all stats, no wins” archetype of quarterback. That was a quick change into the “coddled winner” category he now apparently shares with the likes of Joe Flacco. Schaub threw for 4,770 yards in 2009 and tried to overcome a porous defense in 2010.
Even this season Schaub had a game with 527 passing yards. He is no stranger to dropping back and throwing a lot. It’s just that much of the attention now goes to Foster, which allows those play-action fakes that are putting cameramen out of jobs to dominate.
But it was New England’s play-fakes that dominated in Week 14, and Houston will have to adjust to that with a stronger emphasis on playing the pass. You would think that would be common sense against Brady.
The Patriots said they want to be aggressive this week, but they already were the first time. Brady threw a lot of deep passes, which is unusual for this offense. However, that is what you want from him as a defense, as it is still not a strong part of his game. Eventually Brady did find Stallworth with a 63-yard touchdown that night, but no worries about a repeat of that. Stallworth is on injured reserve, and it will have to be someone like Lloyd making that catch this time.
Houston obviously has some really great players with Watt and Andre Johnson. They will have to shine this week. Watt can impact the game without filling up the sacks stat. He had that forced fumble last time, but someone has to be there to recover the ball.
Now there are plenty of reasons to like the Patriots this week. They have the better coach and quarterback, the home field, the experience, the head-to-head win, Rob Gronkowski (did not play first time), and have likely prepared for two weeks for Houston.
But the Patriots stopped being locks in the playoffs, even at home, years ago. They are barely over .500 since their last Super Bowl win, which seems even silly to bring up these days given the extreme roster turnover.
New England used to dominate rematches, but lately we see the opponent adjust better, as the last six playoff losses have all come in rematches. Houston had a lot more to learn from Week 14 than New England, and I think the core players will shine in this one after hearing how they have no chance to win.
The events are a bit similar to 2010 when a New England team scarier than this one played a Jets team more flawed than Houston. That game was 45-3 in December, but the Jets controlled the game and won 28-21 in a game that was not even that close.
This is a game where Schaub and Johnson can make their mark, where Foster can continue his playoff dominance, and Gary Kubiak can shed some of his conservative tag by playing balls-out gutsy with some calls to put a close one away this weekend.
Houston received some flak last time for calling Week 14 the biggest game in team history (this time it is), and wearing the letterman jackets. Well now they have a great chance to remind us why they were in control of the No. 1 seed all year long until Week 17. They can go into Foxboro and knock off the Patriots when it counts most.
Leaving you with something to ponder, consider that the late-Sunday afternoon slot has produced a big upset in five of the last six Divisional weekends:

• 2011 – Giants stun the 15-1 Packers at home with a 37-20 win.
• 2010 – Patriots inexplicably lose to the Jets, 28-21, after a dominant eight-game winning streak.
• 2009 – The Chargers won 11 straight games heading into the playoffs, but the Jets shut their offense down in a 17-14 upset.
• 2007 – Dallas has the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but loses to the Giants after sweeping them in the regular season.
• 2006 – This time a 10-game winning streak was no good for the Chargers as they blew another home playoff game to the Patriots.

Can the results of Saturday’s games mess with the minds of Sunday’s teams as they go to bed potentially knowing they are now a home win away from the Super Bowl? Should the Broncos lose on Saturday, New England will go to sleep Saturday night knowing they just have to get past Baltimore (again) at home to reach another Super Bowl. Maybe that has a negative impact.
Either way, it is always nice to end the weekend with a bang and everything is set up for the Texans to deliver that on Sunday.

Final score predictions

• Broncos over Ravens, 23-13
• 49ers over Packers, 31-27
• Falcons over Seahawks, 27-17
• Texans over Patriots, 24-21

Want a bold prediction? Should the Broncos lose on Saturday, the Patriots will lose on Sunday. As Phil Simms and Jim Nantz try to comfort one another, they will just have to deal with a Joe Flacco vs. Matt Schaub AFC Championship game like the rest of us.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...nd-predictions

[Oswlek]

The Texans stopped New England on a 3rd-and-10, but on a pass Wes Welker was never going to catch, Danieal Manning was flagged for pass interference (26 yards) to continue the drive, which resulted in a touchdown and 21-0 deficit.

I can't for the lie of me figure out why people keep saying this. If he hadn't been knocked on his ass, Wes absolutely could have made a play on that ball.

I agree he probably wouldn't have caught it, because the defender had good position between him and the pass, but I don't see why that excuses the defender for screwing up.

Eventually Brady did find Stallworth with a 63-yard touchdown that night, but no worries about a repeat of that. Stallworth is on injured reserve, and it will have to be someone like Lloyd making that catch this time.

Oh God NNNOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! Not Stallworth! How will the Patriots score without him????!!!!

[midgar8784]

Originally Posted by Oswlek

I can't for the lie of me figure out why people keep saying this. If he hadn't been knocked on his ass, Wes absolutely could have made a play on that ball.

I agree he probably wouldn't have caught it, because the defender had good position between him and the pass, but I don't see why that excuses the defender for screwing up.



Oh God NNNOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! Not Stallworth! How will the Patriots score without him????!!!!

Yeah we basically blew our load with Stallworth for that game, now we are screwed. Texans do not have to worry about that bullet this time....I bet they are breathing a sigh of relief that he is not making the trip.

[chevss454]

Dave tallies our pass defense by DBs and LBs. Big improvement recently.

Jan
9

Secondary Analysis - End-of-Season Wrap-Up


Here are the secondary charting numbers from the second half (first half here):



The biggest differences are:
- Much better play from Kyle Arrington, who allowed 76% completion and 11.7 yard per pass attempt in the first half. The slot corner play in general was improved, as Marquice Cole and even Derrick Martin also played well when they got opportunities.
- No Sterling Moore, their worst corner (83% completion and 13.1 YPA) and third in playing time in the first half
- A lot less (104 snaps vs 369 first half) Tavon Wilson, their worst pass-defending safety (66% completion, 5 TDs allowed) except for Nate Ebner, who did not play in the second half
- Improved play from the other three safeties, keyed by Devin McCourty (allowed 57 passer rating as a safety for the season, best on the team)

The cornerbacks probably got the most attention, with the arrival of Aqib Talib, the emergence of rookie Alfonzo Dennard, and McCourty moving to safety, but statistically neither Talib nor Dennard was terribly impressive in the second half. The stats probably understate their contributions, as they were asked to play more man and get less safety help than the Pats' corners did in the first half.

http://davebreaksdownfilm.blogspot.com/

[HomelessJoe]

Originally Posted by midgar8784

Texans do not have to worry about that bullet this time....I bet they are breathing a sigh of relief that he is not making the trip.

So are pedestrians

[chevss454]

he following information comes from the fine-feathered folks at Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).Tom Brady and the high-powered New England Patriots are even money to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco is favored over home Atlanta in the NFC title game.

A Patriots-49ers Super Bowl is getting 5/6 odds. Ravens-Falcons is the longest shot at 9/1.

Odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII
New England Patriots 1/1
San Francisco 49ers 2/1
Atlanta Falcons 11/2
Baltimore Ravens 15/2

2013 Super Bowl XLVII - Exact Super Bowl Matchups
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers 6/1
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/4
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers 5/6

[chevss454]

CHFF picked SB participants and winners on Jan. 2.

What are these guys ?? With 4 teams still alive, 7 of 10 CHFF staff members are already losers.

Cold Hard Football Facts Staff Super Bowl Picks

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 02, 2013

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...l-picks/20563/

[TommyD420]

Originally Posted by chevss454

he following information comes from the fine-feathered folks at Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).Tom Brady and the high-powered New England Patriots are even money to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco is favored over home Atlanta in the NFC title game.

A Patriots-49ers Super Bowl is getting 5/6 odds. Ravens-Falcons is the longest shot at 9/1.

Odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII
New England Patriots 1/1
San Francisco 49ers 2/1
Atlanta Falcons 11/2
Baltimore Ravens 15/2

2013 Super Bowl XLVII - Exact Super Bowl Matchups
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers 6/1
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/4
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers 5/6

I'll clean up for NE vs. Atl at 9/4. *searches for loose change...*

[midgar8784]

Originally Posted by chevss454

he following information comes from the fine-feathered folks at Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).Tom Brady and the high-powered New England Patriots are even money to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco is favored over home Atlanta in the NFC title game.

A Patriots-49ers Super Bowl is getting 5/6 odds. Ravens-Falcons is the longest shot at 9/1.

Odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII
New England Patriots 1/1
San Francisco 49ers 2/1
Atlanta Falcons 11/2
Baltimore Ravens 15/2

2013 Super Bowl XLVII - Exact Super Bowl Matchups
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers 6/1
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/4
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers 5/6

Can someone tell me what the hell 5/6 means, does that mean the pats are the favorites or the niners?

[mikiemo83]

my take based on $100:

9/1 means you get $900 for each $100 bet

5/6 means you only win $500 for each $600 bet


so the greater the difference between the 1st number from the second number means the greater the underdog (in the example +$800)

the closer the number from the 1st to the 2nd the bigger the favorite (in the example -$17)

this is not based on who they feel will win the game but on who they think will have the money bet on them....that is what most people forget.

if you get a bonch of Guido's from Jersey they tend to be bigger gamblers than mormons from Utah so you would make the odds reflect that money coming in to the point you would get Guido's betting against their teams because the odds/spread is so great.