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Old 03-30-2020, 06:28 PM   #706
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Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
This Op-Ed makes a good point.
Absolutely

And hope all is well....

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Old 03-30-2020, 07:36 PM   #707
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Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
No he said that there are models that predict that.



Without knowing what assumptions and input went into those models, one cannot judge how much credibility to put on that result.



For example, what is the presumed mortality rate?



Is it the 1 to 4% #'s we keep hearing which are based on dividing the number of dead by those tested positive for the virus?



We know with absolute certainty that the number of infected exceeds the number of positive test results. No one knows by how much.



So if they use the 1 to 4% #, they are reporting absolute bullshit, if they use something less, what is their basis for the alternative #?



There are plenty of arguments about how to estimate the total infected population beyond the positive test cases, so without knowing how they came up with their value one can't tell how credible it is.



Also, how do they differentiate the present death total between dying with the virus and from the virus, as an earlier post I made described.



Look I've done computer modeling as part of my job since we used stone knives and bear skins in the before time to do it. I know how one has to understand the limitations and uncertainty of the input data as well as the fidelity of the equations used to actually represent reality.



So without knowing how the model works, I'm reserving any judgement on how accurate it may be or simply a SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)



He also said this.


“I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong,"


Seems he has some questions as to the validity of the model.


Oh, he definitely did question models in general.
I thought (and i would have to go back and look) that he was asked about his own prediction, and he said between 120,000 and 150,000 deaths.



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Old 03-30-2020, 08:14 PM   #708
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Originally Posted by PatsFan09 View Post
Oh, he definitely did question models in general.
I thought (and i would have to go back and look) that he was asked about his own prediction, and he said between 120,000 and 150,000 deaths.



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Based on what exactly.

I would have the same questions on his calculation as I had about the models.

The simple fact of the matter is that absolutely nothing can be said with any reasonable sense of certainty without knowing the actual number of infected people. Not those who have tested positive, but the total number.

Without that any calculation, be it mortality, R0, hospitalization rate, estimated number of infections, etc. is simply a SWAG.

You can site all the data you like to plug in the numerator. We have no real idea what the denominator is.

Until we do, anyone who claims they “know” they can predict what will happen is verbally masturbating.

And yes, you can quote me on that.
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Old 03-30-2020, 08:31 PM   #709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O_P_T View Post
Based on what exactly.

I would have the same questions on his calculation as I had about the models.

The simple fact of the matter is that absolutely nothing can be said with any reasonable sense of certainty without knowing the actual number of infected people. Not those who have tested positive, but the total number.

Without that any calculation, be it mortality, R0, hospitalization rate, estimated number of infections, etc. is simply a SWAG.

You can site all the data you like to plug in the numerator. We have no real idea what the denominator is.

Until we do, anyone who claims they “know” they can predict what will happen is verbally masturbating.

And yes, you can quote me on that.
Exactly.

And you can’t calculate now with who’s had it and expressed no symptoms. Antibody verification is the only true way to get the number. And testing everyone.
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Old 03-30-2020, 09:03 PM   #710
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Originally Posted by Dwight Schrute View Post
And testing everyone.
Just wondering, testing by statistically valid random sampling?

Cheers
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Old 03-30-2020, 10:25 PM   #711
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Screw modeling and all the hair splitting arguments about death rates transmission rates, yada yada yada.
All one has to do is watch the reports from the front line Dr's. and nurses. They are shocked, scared and broken emotionally that they can't save many of their patients. Many are getting sick themselves and many have died. I think Italy had lost over 60 Dr's. from covid-19 infections Never seen that with the normal yearly flu outbreaks. Never has the health care system been so overloaded in my lifetime. Those reactions alone tell me just how bad this virus is. What we do individually, and how serious people take this can make a big difference in the numbers in the end. This isn't something any of us, young, old, healthy, fragile, should take lightly.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:05 AM   #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr NFLfan View Post
Screw modeling and all the hair splitting arguments about death rates transmission rates, yada yada yada.
All one has to do is watch the reports from the front line Dr's. and nurses. They are shocked, scared and broken emotionally that they can't save many of their patients. Many are getting sick themselves and many have died. I think Italy had lost over 60 Dr's. from covid-19 infections Never seen that with the normal yearly flu outbreaks. Never has the health care system been so overloaded in my lifetime. Those reactions alone tell me just how bad this virus is. What we do individually, and how serious people take this can make a big difference in the numbers in the end. This isn't something any of us, young, old, healthy, fragile, should take lightly.
Bingo!!
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:01 AM   #713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonTim View Post
Just wondering, testing by statistically valid random sampling?

Cheers
Correct.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:18 AM   #714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr NFLfan View Post
Screw modeling and all the hair splitting arguments about death rates transmission rates, yada yada yada.
All one has to do is watch the reports from the front line Dr's. and nurses. They are shocked, scared and broken emotionally that they can't save many of their patients. Many are getting sick themselves and many have died. I think Italy had lost over 60 Dr's. from covid-19 infections Never seen that with the normal yearly flu outbreaks. Never has the health care system been so overloaded in my lifetime. Those reactions alone tell me just how bad this virus is. What we do individually, and how serious people take this can make a big difference in the numbers in the end. This isn't something any of us, young, old, healthy, fragile, should take lightly.
Pretty much how I see it.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:28 AM   #715
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It is a bit interesting to compare Norway and Sweden With regards to the corona virus, because we are two neighbour countries that handle the situation very differently.

Norway is in line With most of the world in a "Lock Down" mode, while Sweden has way less restrictions. They just recently reduced the cap on social gatherings from 500 to 50 persons.

As of now Norway has 35 dead compared to Swedens 180.

Sweden has apx 2x Norways population.

The numbers in Sweden are as expected much higher because they are doing less to restrain it, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:52 AM   #716
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You know, I am still the the "Covid-19 is real, and more of a threat than the flu" department, but I'm beginning to see more and more evidence of an awful lot of fakery, and hospitals outright lying about conditions.

I believe the crisis is real, but I believe that it is being exploited in all kinds of ways beyond what the actual problem requires.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:37 AM   #717
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
You know, I am still the the "Covid-19 is real, and more of a threat than the flu" department, but I'm beginning to see more and more evidence of an awful lot of fakery, and hospitals outright lying about conditions.

I believe the crisis is real, but I believe that it is being exploited in all kinds of ways beyond what the actual problem requires.

Agreed.


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Old 03-31-2020, 09:42 AM   #718
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I have friends that work in NY hospitals in Brooklyn and Manhattan and they are reporting regular shifts and business as usual.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:58 AM   #719
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Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
You know, I am still the the "Covid-19 is real, and more of a threat than the flu" department, but I'm beginning to see more and more evidence of an awful lot of fakery, and hospitals outright lying about conditions.

I believe the crisis is real, but I believe that it is being exploited in all kinds of ways beyond what the actual problem requires.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AkPatsFan View Post
Agreed.


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I agree as well. Exploitation in SO many forms. Media. For ratings. Hospitals. For cash. Workers. For that viral social media hit.

It is a serious issue. If you’re in that particular at risk demo even more so. Take all precautions. But I don’t feel like this is how the zombie apocalypse starts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnlocke View Post
I have friends that work in NY hospitals in Brooklyn and Manhattan and they are reporting regular shifts and business as usual.
Well there you go.

First hand unfiltered information NOT via media. And that’s the nations Ground Zero we’re told.
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:53 AM   #720
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Samedi View Post
You know, I am still the the "Covid-19 is real, and more of a threat than the flu" department, but I'm beginning to see more and more evidence of an awful lot of fakery, and hospitals outright lying about conditions.



I believe the crisis is real, but I believe that it is being exploited in all kinds of ways beyond what the actual problem requires.


Proof? This is a pretty despicable claim if you can’t back it.


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You shall listen to all sides and filter them from your self. " Walt Whitman, Song of Myself
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