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Undertaker #59
10-19-2004, 04:37 PM
Talk about thoughts on the game itself here. No smack please. This isn't the karma thread either - look for that from Spinal on Wednesday.


I think the Jets are a pretty good team, but this will be their first serious test. I also think this will be the best team the Pats have faced since the Colts. I thought the Seahawks would have been, but they played pretty badly.

I look for the Jets to test the Pats run D early and often, and the Pats giving up some yards, but once again getting it done in the red zone.

The Pats will probably test the young CBs on the Jets and try to exploit that zone defense with Daniel Graham.

BwanaZulia
10-19-2004, 05:05 PM
Problem is, I agree.

If nothing else, the Jets offense is no mystery. We like to run the ball and we like to do a lot of play action passes (like another team that used to be in the AFC East). We also have a hell of a runner, so until the Pats can prove they can stop #28, we are going to run. We get Kendell back this week and so our offensive line will be up to 70% of its power.

We get Moss back, so expect to see him joined by Justin and Wayne. Becht #88 had a great game last week, so he too will be getting some of the balls.

I wouldn't expect the Jets offense to light it up or do anything too tricky to start. They basically start with their game and adapt later if it is not working (look at the SF game).

On defense it is a brand new day. Henderson is the new DC and is mean as piss. He will have his boys fired up.

Vilma (LB - #51) is no joke. He smart as a whip, fast and has great hands. He is very young and might make a few mistakes, but I would expect him to make a few big plays in the game and only get better with time. Brady might be talking up close to him a few times. Our pass rush is also much improved, so they will be flying in around the corners for a little "talking".

The Jets know they are playing the toughest game of the year and that the Pats play to win and do.

BZ

NJJetsFan
10-19-2004, 05:07 PM
Originally posted by Undertaker #59
Talk about thoughts on the game itself here. No smack please. This isn't the karma thread either - look for that from Spinal on Wednesday.


I think the Jets are a pretty good team, but this will be their first serious test. I also think this will be the best team the Pats have faced since the Colts. I thought the Seahawks would have been, but they played pretty badly.

I look for the Jets to test the Pats run D early and often, and the Pats giving up some yards, but once again getting it done in the red zone.

The Pats will probably test the young CBs on the Jets and try to exploit that zone defense with Daniel Graham.

Perhaps I'm a bit biased, but the Jets are the best team you will have faced up to this point. The difference between the Jets and the Colts is that the Jets have a defense. Not to mention that NE seems to own the Colts in the same way that the Jets own the Colts. I'd say the Jets and Seahawks are of nearly equal strength.

True, this will be the Jets' first serious test, as serious as they come because the Pats are still "The man", but we are division rivals and that counts for something as well. For a relative comparison, both Buffalo and Miami put up good fights against both of our teams.

Yes, the Jets will run early and often, and I agree that the NYJ red zone offense vs. the NE red zone defense will be one of the major keys to this game. It will be strength on strength. Chad's career red zone stats are something like 30-some TDs and 0- (ZERO) int's. Add to that the recent resurgence of TE Anthony Becht, J-Mac's height advantage, and many recent Wayne Chrebet sightings.

Actually, it's not our CBs who are young, it is our safeties, but I do agree that our achillies heel on defense is our secondary. David Barrett is great in run support, but gives too much cushion and tends to slip down a lot in pass coverage. Donnie Abraham, our other corner, has played solid, including 2 TDs. Eric Coleman, our rookie safety, has had flashes of brilliance (AFC Rookie Of The Week a few weeks back and runner up the following week) but a few typical rookie mistakes as well.

Our front 7 has been getting excellent pressure on the QB, but my concern is that NE will negate that with lots of 3 step and even 5 step drops, hitting the receivers on short routes, which also takes advantage of our DB's tendency to play off the WRs at the line. I expect Donnie Henderson, our defensive coordinator, to adjust for that and play more man coverage. Damn my fingers are getting tired! lol

GreenMachine
10-19-2004, 05:12 PM
First post here.. I just want to point out how close these teams are. Before I get jumped on about the so-called weak schedule.. Other than Indy, I wouldn't exactly call your schedule tough. And besides, no game in the NFL is an easy game. That is why there has been only one undefeated team.
That said here's the comparison

NYJ #11 Defense(19 pass, 8 Run)
NE #19 Defense(22 pass, 16 run)

NYJ #8 Offense(11 pass, 7 run)
NE #12 Offense(12 pass, 12 run)

NYJ +9 turnovers
NE +2 turnovers


I am not proffesing a Jets win, but on paper it looks like they have a better team. This will be a close game and I think the 6.5 pt spread is way to high.

Undertaker #59
10-19-2004, 05:14 PM
My apologies about the corners...you are right, I meant the overall secondary experience level.

How much have the Jets been blitzing? That is what Buffalo tried against the Pats, and though Brady was able to avoid it and burn them, he got knocked around quite a bit. I think the key for opposing teams in stopping Brady is to get pressure from the front four.

Undertaker #59
10-19-2004, 05:17 PM
Welcome GreenMachine, and thank you for the thoughtful post. The only thing I will say about it is the Patriots have never ranked well in yards allowed on defense. Under Belichick, they play "bend, don't break" quite a bit. The Seahawks offense probably had nearly double the Patriots offense in yards and they had 5 red zone opportunites against the Pats and came away with one TD and 4 field goals. That was the difference in the game.

BwanaZulia
10-19-2004, 05:19 PM
Originally posted by Undertaker #59
My apologies about the corners...you are right, I meant the overall secondary experience level.

How much have the Jets been blitzing? That is what Buffalo tried against the Pats, and though Brady was able to avoid it and burn them, he got knocked around quite a bit. I think the key for opposing teams in stopping Brady is to get pressure from the front four.

Well, if you take a look at sack leaders this year:

Sacks No.
1. C. Grant NO 8
2. J. Abraham NYJ 7
3. P. Kerney ATL 7
4. G. Ellis DAL 6
5. T. Suggs BAL 5

I would say we can get to the QB. :)

BZ

BizarroAnnihilus
10-19-2004, 05:23 PM
Originally posted by GreenMachine
NYJ #11 Defense(19 pass, 8 Run)
NE #19 Defense(22 pass, 16 run)

NYJ #8 Offense(11 pass, 7 run)
NE #12 Offense(12 pass, 12 run)

NYJ +9 turnovers
NE +2 turnovers

I am not proffesing a Jets win, but on paper it looks like they have a better team. This will be a close game and I think the 6.5 pt spread is way to high.

Or you could say:

NE 135 Points Scored
NYJ 120 Points Scored

NE 83 Points Against
NYJ 89 Points Against

You can do a lot with numbers and still not predict a win. Just ask the Colts.

BwanaZulia
10-19-2004, 05:25 PM
Originally posted by Annihilus
Or you could say:
You can do a lot with numbers and still not predict a win. Just ask the Colts.

Tough to compare with the Colts, because it was the start of the season (first game as I remember).

If this were just a normal year, and the Pats had not just won the SB and gone on a 20 game winning streak, I think the line would be much closer to 2-3 points. The Pats are a great team, but it never shows on paper (nor does it need to).

BZ

NJJetsFan
10-19-2004, 05:30 PM
Originally posted by Undertaker #59
My apologies about the corners...you are right, I meant the overall secondary experience level.

How much have the Jets been blitzing? That is what Buffalo tried against the Pats, and though Brady was able to avoid it and burn them, he got knocked around quite a bit. I think the key for opposing teams in stopping Brady is to get pressure from the front four.

The Jets have seemingly blitzed more and more as the season has gone on. Back in preseason, Donnie Henderson was bringing the house on every play if only to see what he had.

The interesting thing of late though is that the Jets are getting decent pressure even without blitzing, albeit against somewhat suspect offensive lines.

bideau
10-19-2004, 06:02 PM
I think there are alot of people in the league who are curious to see just how good the Jets are. This is the first test they've had all season and it would be a pretty impressive notch in their belt if they could pull off the upset.

As far as NFL stats go, they're the most useless rankings in sports. They're based strictly on yardage which does not always have a direct correlation to wins/losses.

Troy Aikman, on NFL.com, has his own way of ranking offenses and defenses. The week 5 rankings and an explanation of how he arrives at the numbers is at this link (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7790294). Prior to this past weekend's games, he had the Jets ranked 7 (vs NFL's 8) and the Pats ranked 8 (vs 11) on offense. On defense, he had the Pats ranked 3 (vs 10) and the Jets ranked 15 (vs 9).

Colts vs Jets??? Colts are better. The defensive edge goes to the Jets, but the difference in offenses is miles apart. There will not be a way of quantifying that since they don't play each other, just my opinion.

ENFORCER
10-19-2004, 07:21 PM
Question for Jets fans.. I havent seen alot of Jets games this year. So is Pennington's arm more stronger then last year?

And also how is Vilma looking.. He was second fav defensive prospect in the draft, behind Sean Taylor

jetsman1
10-19-2004, 10:33 PM
Originally posted by ENFORCER
Question for Jets fans.. I havent seen alot of Jets games this year. So is Pennington's arm more stronger then last year?

And also how is Vilma looking.. He was second fav defensive prospect in the draft, behind Sean Taylor

Pennington's arm is just fine.People tend to confuse intentionally trying to throw a very catchable ball with having a weak arm.This is not the case with Pennington.You DO NOT go in the first round as a QB if you have questionable arm strength,just ask Ken Dorsey or any other number of college QB's who fell in the draft because of a weak arm.He can make ALL of the throws that a pro QB needs to be able to make,and has proven it game after game.He is a touch passer by design,not because of a lack of tools!!!

As to your second question,Vilma has looked very good for a rookie starting at middle linebacker for an undefeated team.He has made some errors such as taking the wrong angle at a ballcarrier,but it is correctable and he seems to improve each week.He has been a blessing for the Jets since Cowart went down.He is everything the Jets thought he would be when they drafted him.

Pretty long winded for a first post,eh??:D

BwanaZulia
10-20-2004, 09:12 AM
Originally posted by ENFORCER
Question for Jets fans.. I havent seen alot of Jets games this year. So is Pennington's arm more stronger then last year?

And also how is Vilma looking.. He was second fav defensive prospect in the draft, behind Sean Taylor

Chad has a noodle arm. He can barely pick up his own helmet.

Don't worry about him or his pass completion stats, his red zone perfection or his accuracy. His noodle arm will just get in his way.

As for Vilma. He is amazing. He is a rookie, running the on field defense which speaks tons. He is as smart as a whip (great average in college) and plays a physical, fast game. In every game he has been in has gotten better and better and we only expect that to continue.

So, question for the Pats....

Has losing Ted Washington hurt against the run?

BZ

NJJetsFan
10-21-2004, 12:48 PM
Originally posted by ENFORCER
Question for Jets fans.. I havent seen alot of Jets games this year. So is Pennington's arm more stronger then last year?

And also how is Vilma looking.. He was second fav defensive prospect in the draft, behind Sean Taylor

Pennington still floats an occasional throw, but has been very accurate overall. As far as distance throwing goes, he had two nice bombs, one against Cinci and one against SD, both to Jonathan Carter if I remember correctly, but they haven't really gone long since. It's mainly been Curtis left, Curtis right, Curtis up the middle, play action fake (best in the league) pass to Sowell, 3rd down to Chrebet and there were even a few Anthony Becht sightings last weekend. Also, Lamont Jordan caught a dump off pass and ran it in from 20-some yards out.

Vilma has been looking great, but much of the credit has to be given to the defensive linemen for keeping blockers off of him, especially Fergy & Robertson. I'm surprised that there are still whispers that Robertson is a bust. If teams have to double a "bust" on every play, they must have terrible offensive lines.

That brings me to a question for you guys... How has your offensive line played to this point? All cockiness aside, I think the Jets' D-line is going to be a good test for your O-line.

Undertaker #59
10-21-2004, 02:14 PM
Sorry, NJ...all of the sox stuff has really hurt talk about the Pats this week. Hawg would be the best to answer your question about the offensive line, but I'll give it a shot.

I think there is some misconception around the league that the Patriots have an exceptional offensive line. Its been debated. I think the truth of it is that they just have five white guys, with a lunch-pail mentality, that play pretty well together. Above average - probably, but no where near the best in the league.

The thing that makes them look very good is simply Brady. He is by no means a mobile quarterback, but he is EXCEPTIONAL at pocket awareness. He is better at it this year than ever before. He knows just when to slide a little bit, or step up in the pocket. The wide receivers run their routes quickly, and Brady is very quick at reading the defense and finding the open man. He, so far, is also not afraid to take the hit.

Buffalo blitzed 70% of the snaps in that game. Brady was not sacked once, but they DID hit him quite a bit, many times the split second after he released the ball. He was hurried several times and is not afraid to throw the ball out of bounds to avoid the sack.

I know this post seems like a Brady love fest, but these qualities are what make Brady exceptional, and they make an above average offensive line seem all-pro.

Of course, all of this is IMO.

If Hawg makes his way in here, I am sure he will be able to give you a breakdown of the individual talents on the Pats OL.


I would love to see some analysis from Flagg too.

Hawg73
10-21-2004, 02:53 PM
Originally posted by NJJetsFan
That brings me to a question for you guys... How has your offensive line played to this point? All cockiness aside, I think the Jets' D-line is going to be a good test for your O-line.

This O-line is vastly underrated and is currently playing at a very high level.

The sum of the parts and the way they coordinate tells the tale here. Ask the Bills who blitzed 40-something times against us and NEVER sacked Brady. Hardly even touched him in fact, but a lot of that is Brady's movement in the pocket.

Individually there are no "stars", but I'll try and give you an idea of the individuals and they way they play.

LT- Matt Light - Probably our best overall lineman, he is smart and very strong at the point despite being about 6'3" and 310. His weakness is susceptiblity to the outside speed rush, but has improved in this area. Look for TE Dan Graham to give him some help chipping Abraham on 3rd and long, but running plays favor him big time.

LG - Joe Andruzzi - a quintessential tough guy and solid run blocker who is the least athletic guy on the line. He has slow feet but makes up for it to an extent with guile and experience.

Might have trouble with quick penetration from Robertson.

C - Dan Koppen. A fifth rounder last year out of BC, he stepped in last year as a starter and never looked back. The guy was a bargain at the price and is probably a top-half of the league guy right now. Quick, Smart and excels in combination blocking. Not a real drive blocker, but he is excellent at gaining position. Having a great year so far he can get to the next level and handle quick LBs.

RG - Stephen Neal. Intriguing guy who never played football until the pros. He was the NCAA wrestling champion at Cal bakersfield and finally stuck this year and worked his way into the starting lineup after a bad shoulder injury wiped his seasons out the last 2 years. The best athlete on the line, he is powerful with excellent balance. Very aggressive and quick only lack of experience is holding him back. Sometimes makes dumb mistakes, but we will live with his growing pains. Could be something special in time.

I'm thinking Neal can maul the slippery Ferguson. Ask Sam Adams.

RT - Tom Ashworth - a "who's-he" guy that stepped in last year coming from a practice squad pedigree and played pretty well. Started slow this year after getting hurt in camp, but back to speed at the moment. Big and athletic, but not really a mauler. Probably the weak link in the chain, he could have trouble with tough Shaun Ellis.

In addition Dan Graham is blocking his ASS off. He is remarkable and can sometimes handle DEs by himself. He is one of the, if not THE top two-way TEs in football. Needs more consistency receiving, but he is a major talent still developing. Big red zone theat with 5 TDs.

All of our backs block well except Patrick Pass who basically sucks at everything.

Hope that answers the question.

Undertaker #59
10-21-2004, 03:07 PM
Thanks Hawg, I knew you would be able to give a very good report on these guys. :thumb:

Flagg the Wanderer
10-21-2004, 04:59 PM
Originally posted by BwanaZulia
So, question for the Pats....

Has losing Ted Washington hurt against the run?Eh. It's popular to say so. It certainly has on your typical 3rd or 4th and 1, but remember that Big Ted missed 7 games last year and only played 30% of the snaps. IMO, the run defense misses Bobby Hamilton more than (or at least as much as) Washington. Hamilton played more, and just never made technical errors. He's not a space eater, but he's a perfectionist.

During the games where Ted was not available, the Pats averaged about 3 yards rushing per game more than with him. So overall, not so much.

But on any given 4th and 1, I'd be much happier with him anchoring the middle. Though its hard to be too upset when you can through Traylor and Wilfork in the middle @ about 325 per, Seymour and Warren on the ends @ 305 per, McGinest and Vrabel on the outside @ 265ish per, and Johnson and Brushci as ILBs in a 4-4/6-2 goalline defense.

NJJetsFan
10-21-2004, 05:56 PM
Wow! Many thanks to you guys for the detailed, in-depth 411. I'll do my best to honor your informative posts with my opinion of our defensive line to this point.

It looks like it's going to be a VERY interesting match up in the trenches this week.

John Abraham has been a very pleasant surprise to many Jets fans who were starting to think of him as injury prone, perhaps a bit lazy, and possibly having a drinking problem. He has said that he quit drinking, going out partying all night, and he is in a contract year and is playing like it. He is leading the AFC with 7 sacks and it seems as though he's only been playing at this level for two, maybe three of the five games.

He's always had great pass-rushing ability, but one major improvement imho has been his run defense. He used to get caught inside a lot, biting on fakes and being susceptible to the old end-around. This year, so far, he has been staying at home and even made a nice tackle last week on an end-around where he was the only thing between the ball carrier and the endzone.

Jason Furguson has been solid if not "good". He looks a little quicker this year, perhaps due to Robertson beginning to come of age.

Dewayne Robertson has been eating up blockers which has been freeing up Vilma to be all over the field. The difference in speed and tackling between the dinosaur LB corps of last year and this year's crew is amazing to say the least. (all homerism aside)

Shaun Ellis' father recently passed away, and he got off to a slow start relative to last year, but is beginning to come around. He's still solid against the run and beginning to get to quarterbacks with more regularity.

The defensive line play, along with a more aggressive blitz scheme has taken up the slack for a relatively young and inexperienced secondary.

The Jets have played teams with somewhat suspect offensive lines so I'm *really* looking forward to seeing how the front 7 deals with an upper tier group like the Patriots have.

Mythjp
10-22-2004, 11:14 AM
I don't think the Jets are as solid as the record makes them look.
They have been doing a good job of rebuilding but the job is far from done. I would list them behind 10 other teams in the NFL right now. Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Broncos, Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Seahawks, and Falcons. The LBs for the Jets are not that good. Vilma is small and will be run over by the bigger power backs like Dillon. Hobson is only 6'0 but at 250lbs he is strong. However he is not quick and could not cover a TE like Graham or a RB like Faulk. Barrett is the fastes DB they have at 5'10 195 he has speed but The Patriots have speed at WR that he can't match. Abraham the other CB is quick but will get beat on deep post plays. The D-Line is up and down talented and the DE Abraham can rush the QB. But he has not faced this O-Line this year and they are stout. The game will be how well the Patriots D shut down the Jets O. The speed, size and depth of the LBs inside and out for the Patriots makes that easyer to do The D-Line for the Patriots has really steped it up Wilfork has developed faster than I would have expected. Seymour is now able to rush insted of protect the middle. Warren is doing a great job from his DE slot. And to keep people fresh having Green and Hill doesn't hurt. The DBs for the Patriots are outstanding when Samuel is in for Poole And Gay is turning in to a real good backup and Nickle guy this year...:thumb:

Leovigild
10-23-2004, 12:13 PM
For those interested in stats, Footballoutsiders.com (run by a group of football fans of diverse loyalties) has the best statistics out there.

Their primary statistic, DVOA, measures the performance of each team in their games vs. the average performance of NFL teams in the same situation. The results are adjusted for quality of opponents. It's very good at measuring the real strength of teams.

Through Week 6, DVOA has the Patriots second behind the Eagles, at 43.0% (higher is better), and the Jets tied for fifth with the Giants at 24.8%. Those are very good numbers and the spread will probably narrow as the season progresses.

Offensively, New England is 4th and the Jets are 5th.

Defensively, New England is 3rd and the Jets 21st.

Special teams is where the Jets shine, as they are 10th and the Pats 22nd.

They have posted a preview of the Pats-Jets game here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=1902&cat=1).

RichM99
10-23-2004, 04:31 PM
Bottom line, with the exception of maybe Mawae, the Pats are equal or better at every position. They should control this game start to finish.