Breaking down the 1st round - How will we get our DT?

[Hawg73]

So what will happen come draft day? Nobody can predict it with any surety, but at this juncture there is enough information on the top talent to hazard a rough guess as to what players may be available at #'s 14 and 19. I'm going to treat this as if we stand pat with our current picks since a trade up or down would obviously make it tougher to gauge what will happen and invalidate any points I might manage to make here.

These are the players who I feel will be chosen somewhere in the top 13 slots - in approximate order of selection. None of these guys will be wearing the Flying Elvis next year barring a big trade as they are considered sure bets to go high, I have included the teams that they might land with:

1. Cincinnatti Terrell Suggs DE - Arizona St.
2. Detroit Charles Rogers WR - Michigan St.
3. Houston Jimmy Kennedy DT - Penn St.
4. Chicago Carson Palmer QB - USC
5. Dallas Terrance Newman CB - Kansas St.
6. Arizona Andre Johnson WR - Miami
7. Minnesota DeWayne Robertson DT - Kentucky
8. Jacksonville Jordan Gross OT - Utah
9. Carolina Byron Leftwich QB - Marshall

Of course, everyone has slight variations of this list but it is a pretty safe bet that these guys will all be selected before our turn at 14, even if trades occur at the top I still expect these will be the guys that go. Some research on the subject will tell you that the next group of players that could be selected at or before 19 include:

*Marcus Trufant CB - Washington
*Kevin Williams DT - Okla. St.
*Jonathon Sullivan DT - Georgia
*Eric Steinbach OL - Iowa
William Joseph - DT Miami
Kyle Boller QB - Cal
Boss Bailey OLB - Georgia
EJ Henderson LB - Maryland
Jerome McDougle DE- Miami
Michael Haynes DE - Penn State
Kenny Peterson DL - Ohio St.
Taylor Jacobs WR - U of Florida
Jason Witten TE - UT
Larry Johnson RB - Penn St.

Here is where things get decidedly dicey - since my favorites from this list are the first four, my biggest fear is they are snapped up before our pick. I could see them going this way:

10. Baltimore - Looking to shore up RT adds Steinbach.
11. Seattle - Goes for Kevin Williams
12. St. Louis - Marcus Trufant - a need still exists for corners
13. NYJ - Jets pissed that Williams gone but settle for Sullivan

This would be disasterous for us for a number of reasons. To me either Williams or Sullivan are the defacto favorites for us since our need is a big DT and they are the candidates that might be there. That is MIGHT. I would not draft a guy like Joseph - the guy just scored a 7 on the Wonderlic intelligence test at the combine - a 7 on that test means that he probably has trouble tying his own cleats - the DE's available are generally not worth the 14th and some of the others just don't make sense for our team at that spot for various reasons.

What we desperately need for one of those guys to fall to us is one of the currently lower-rated guys to jump up to 13 and above. My favorites for this are: Bailey, Boller and Witten. Any move of those guys to those slots above us means we land a top guy. If they don't........we in a heap of trouble and may very well move down to the top of the 2nd round with 14 and take a guy like Ty Warren of Texas A&M who might fit what we need better than the guys who will go in the top of the first. The head spins with the various permutations and this is, after all, rampant speculation on my part. Some questions:

Who are the two guys you would prefer to take with 14 and 19?

My choices would be Kevin Williams and EJ Henderson - totally solving our run defense problems in about an hour. I have heard Williams described as a "Monster" and "unblockable" with the quick burst that only the great ones have. Anybody that watched Henderson this year could see he was a player, a producer and an intimidator - values that the Patriots covet. I'm going to guess that the Pats are unconcerned about his injury history and lack of blinding speed and will take him at 19. Please, let it be these guys.

Who is likely to reach for a lower ranked player and drive a solid DT down to us? Will there be an early run on DL's?

Will the copycat factor tempt somebody to take TE Jason Witten higher than he deserves to get their own version of Jeremy Shockey?

Will Boss Bailey's impressive athletic skills cause somebody to reach for him? Who needs an OLB that badly?

QB's are starting to be considered risky picks by some teams due to the high number of 1st round busts at that position - despite a few teams with journeyman QB's at the top of the draft: Chicago, Carolina, Dallas, Arizona and maybe Minnesota.

Will the QB's drop or will somebody pick Boller before 14? Is there anyone on the planet that thinks the Bears can win with a one-two punch of Kordell Stewart and Jim Miller?

Sorry this is so long, but the topic is really involved - the scary part is that is that I could have made it far more complicated.

[juxtapoz15]

Just a couple thoughts about about your predictions....

Trufant and Williams should definetly be gone by the time the Pats get a pick... they have shot up boards as of late.

I think the Pats had a legitimate shot at Sullivan until the Jets got the 13th pick... that threw a wrench into the whole thing. Unless the Jets don't pass up on Kwame Harris I don't see NE getting Sullivan.

I would love for them to trade 1st & 2nd round picks(2nd rounder if they get one of of NO) and trade up to get Williams, Kennedy, or Robertson. I think the Cowboys are willing to trade picks, but the price might be too high.

I can see the Pats drafting a EJ Henderson, William Joseph or Kwame Harris if they don't trade up or down.

I would like to see the Pats trade some of their later round picks and get an earlier second rounder and grab either Larry Johnson (if still available) Onterio Smith or Lee Suggs.

Tell me what you guys think

[pookie]

Related, yet unrelated.... I just read that the Patriots have restructured Brady's contract, freeing up about 2.1 million to help sign whomever their picks are.