The Belichick/Pioli Master Plan

[ItsGood_ItsGood]

The only successful way to build a sports team, whether it's pro or college, is a two track approach. You HAVE to simultaneously plan for this year AND the future. Say what you want about Theo Epstein hanging on to Casey Fossum instead of bringing in Bartolo Colon, but this was the first time in a decade that the Sox have shown a willingness to NOT disregard the future. Take Rick Pitino. It became quickly apparent that Pitino never, ever had a plan beyond his next move (see, Billups, Chauncey.)

Belichick and Pioli are proof of what can be done with this approach. They hit the lottery when the 199th pick in the draft turned out to be a QB who took them to the Mountaintop. So last Spring they added free agents and draft picks to try to build a better team around him for 2002. They then used the asset that was Bledsoe to pick up a draft pick and $6 million in cap space for 2003 and beyond.

Some of the draft picks didn't work out. Few of the free agents did. Some (Womack) were flyers they took on the future. But BB/Pioli have cut their losses on the lost causes (Randall, Hayes)and are still working with the ones with potential (Green, Davey).

Now, the addition of Harrison will let them convert Tebucky into some other asset (Help for the future with another first rounder? Immediate help in Kyle Turley?)

BB the GM is giving BB the HC of the NEPs exactly what he wants: options. Bucking the decades long NFL trend of specialization (third down DEs and the like), Bill the coach likes flexibility. Colvin will fit perfectly into a D in which on any given play, the strong side LB will go into a stance, making the middle LB the strong side and weak side the middle. (Remember Vrabel doing this to cause Kurt Warner to throw the INT to Law that won the Super Bowl).

I've heard talk show boobs complaining about how Harrison won't fit in because he and Malloy both playing strong safety. As if we're talking about the difference between playing QB and goalie. In BBs schemes, these labels mean next to nothing. I mean, what position was Seymour playing when they went to no down linemen in the Bills game?

His moves have put them in a position to address the team's biggest weakness through what is the strongest position in the draft: run stoppers on the defensive line. Regardless of position. It's been rumored that they will move Seymour to DE and draft a DT, but again, it doesn't matter. this team is becoming the first to evolve beyond the 3-4 or 4-3 models. And I wouldn't want to have to design an offense to beat it.

[Hawg73]

Originally posted by ItsGood_ItsGood

I've heard talk show boobs complaining about how Harrison won't fit in because he and Malloy both playing strong safety. As if we're talking about the difference between playing QB and goalie. In BBs schemes, these labels mean next to nothing. I mean, what position was Seymour playing when they went to no down linemen in the Bills game?

His moves have put them in a position to address the team's biggest weakness through what is the strongest position in the draft: run stoppers on the defensive line. Regardless of position. It's been rumored that they will move Seymour to DE and draft a DT, but again, it doesn't matter. this team is becoming the first to evolve beyond the 3-4 or 4-3 models. And I wouldn't want to have to design an offense to beat it.

People are getting way to worked up over traditional defensive theories IMO. Supposedly the Pats D uses the concept of "right and left" safeties as opposed to strong and free. We change up D coverages so often and on the fly that it really doesn't make much difference what you call it. All I know about Rodney Harrison is that every time I watch a Chargers game he is the guy making the big plays for them while Seau got the attention of the announcers. I look forward to seeing how we work him into the lineup regardless of whether TBuck is gone or not. He is an excellent player and I am damn glad to have him.

The name of the game is putting people where they don't expect they will be and putting your guys in postion to make plays. Don't expect to see Seymour lined up at DE all year on the, say left OT. He will be sneaking around looking to raise hell. It's like you said -having options and the intelligence to use them correctly.

Originally posted by ItsGood_ItsGood
I've heard talk show boobs complaining about how Harrison won't fit in because he and Malloy both playing strong safety. As if we're talking about the difference between playing QB and goalie. In BBs schemes, these labels mean next to nothing. I mean, what position was Seymour playing when they went to no down linemen in the Bills game?


Hmmmm. I have to disagree with that. If that makes me a boob, so be it. The question really isn't about labels. It is about having certain capabilities on the field at the same time to play certain types of defensive formations.

Belichick plays a lot of different defenses but he does have an affinity for cover-two. To play cover-two you need a free safety who can cover deep. If your personnel doesn't have the range to provide that coverage you can't effectively play cover-two. Harrison doesn't have the range of Tebucky -- not a chance. So if you start Milloy and Harrison, one of them has to be in coverage...and they don't have the speed. Call them what you like but calling a strong safety a "split-safety" doesn't make him any faster.

[pookie]

Originally posted by NoRespect
Hmmmm. I have to disagree with that. If that makes me a boob, so be it. The question really isn't about labels. It is about having certain capabilities on the field at the same time to play certain types of defensive formations.

Belichick plays a lot of different defenses but he does have an affinity for cover-two. To play cover-two you need a free safety who can cover deep. If your personnel doesn't have the range to provide that coverage you can't effectively play cover-two. Harrison doesn't have the range of Tebucky -- not a chance. So if you start Milloy and Harrison, one of them has to be in coverage...and they don't have the speed. Call them what you like but calling a strong safety a "split-safety" doesn't make him any faster.

Can I call you a boob? You boob! That was fun.

But I tend to agree with the point that in the defensive backfield you've got to have that speed at FS, as well as the stout SS. Harisson is very good, granted, but he doesn't have the speed or athleticism of Tebucky. Especially at 30. Does our FS have to be Tebucky Jones? Absolutely not. But the Pats made a bit of a pickle for themselves by not making any moves before 4pm today. I'm willing to bet that Pioli and BB have got something up their sleeve.

Having 2 strong safeties in on any given play will certainly equal long TD passes down the middle.

[Hawg73]

I respectfully disagree with you two distinguished gentlemen. In my humble opinion you can have a fine lad at safety with a world of speed who, when he bites on a run fake or hesitates because he isn't sure if he has the Tight end or split end if they cross in front of him - it doesn't matter if he runs a 4.4 or a 4.6 he is still going to get beaten like an egg white.

I will take a slower, more instinctive player and position him slightly deeper to compensate and he will make more plays for you than the mentally questionable yet superior athlete will when he is blowing coverages. I won't be cute here because that is how I basically see Harrison and Tebucky.

Somebody on KFFL raised the question: name me an outstanding cover safety in the NFL right now? It is hard to think of one though there must be plenty. The only thing that people notice about safeties is whether they are hard hitters and how many INT's they have. Any names? I couldn't think of one that is a clear cut example though there are tons of CBs that fit the description.

[pookie]

Originally posted by Hawg73
I respectfully disagree with you two distinguished gentlemen. In my humble opinion you can have a fine lad at safety with a world of speed who, when he bites on a run fake or hesitates because he isn't sure if he has the Tight end or split end if they cross in front of him - it doesn't matter if he runs a 4.4 or a 4.6 he is still going to get beaten like an egg white.

I will take a slower, more instinctive player and position him slightly deeper to compensate and he will make more plays for you than the mentally questionable yet superior athlete will when he is blowing coverages. I won't be cute here because that is how I basically see Harrison and Tebucky.

Somebody on KFFL raised the question: name me an outstanding cover safety in the NFL right now? It is hard to think of one though there must be plenty. The only thing that people notice about safeties is whether they are hard hitters and how many INT's they have. Any names? I couldn't think of one that is a clear cut example though there are tons of CBs that fit the description.

Distinguished gentlemen? Where? What I was getting at Hawgster was that in the ideal situation you would have a free safety with excellent speed who can play the position and NOT bite on play fakes and not get toasted.

Originally posted by pookie
Distinguished gentlemen? Where? What I was getting at Hawgster was that in the ideal situation you would have a free safety with excellent speed who can play the position and NOT bite on play fakes and not get toasted.

I agree Pook, Distinguished Gentlemen? Speak for yourself. :)

What he said. " " Ditto.

Speed is rarely a bad thing. Endorsing speed is not to be seen as an endorsement of Tebucky -- who I have been on the record saying isn't good enough for top five money.

I initially didn't agree with the use of the franchise tag (and it would appear that we are getting "stuck" with him as a result) but it will look like a good move if we can get compensation and are not totally handicapped in free agency.

As for safeties that can cover, rarely is a safety in a Belichick defense (or any other) in straight-up man-coverage like a corner. Few corners are good enough to consistently be in man-coverage against top receivers. Most get help from the safety. Referring to safeties as not being "cover-safeties" isn't really relavent or accurate. This isn't man-coverage skills we are talking about. The more range your safety has the smaller the window in the zone for the QB.

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Safeties with range and coverage skills -- that is a better question. I will use the "ability to be around the ball" as a benchmark of that range.

Tony Parrish (49ers): 7 picks, 17 passes defensed, (That leads the majority of starting cornerbacks in the league) 72 tackles and 1 forced fumble.

Rod Woodson (not Charles/Oak): 8 picks, 16 PD, 82 tackles.

Brian Dawkins (Phi) 2 Picks, 12 PD, 95 tackles 5 FF

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For comparison:

Rodney Harrison: 2 picks, 8 PD, 88 tackles 2 FF

Lawyer Milloy: 0 picks, 6 PD, 94 tackles, 0 FF

Tebucky Jones: 1 pick 6 PD, 50 tackles 2 FF

Who really knows? Maybe getting a playmaker in there (old, slow or otherwise) is still an improvement over Jones. I agree with Pookie. Get a guy who's speed doesn't impair his thinking.

My nightmare is seeing Buffalo receivers splitting our "SPLIT" safeties all day long and the announcer saying "O T I S was expecting help from the safety..."