Dance Partners?

[Dwight Schrute]

I have expressed a few times the liklihood of somebody trying to trade up to grab Matt Ryan.

My question is who do you guys think would be willing to trade up? What do they have for ammo to do it? And is there somebody else probably sitting there at 7 who another team might be willing to jump ahead for?

I'll sit back and anticipate the responses from the guys who know this stuff inside and out.

[ParanoidPatriot]

Could be the Chiefs to move up. Could be the Ravens to move down(Ryan). Could be Carolina to move down(Ryan).

Those are three but it will be determined as to who drops to us. There will be many suitors. Hhow far we want to move down depends if they really like Rivers or not.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Teams expected to be interested in a QB: (1) Miami, (3) Atlanta, (5) Kansas City, (6) NYJ, (8) Baltimore, (13) Carolina, (14) Chicago, (15) Detroit, (17) Minnesota, and (20) Tampa Bay. Assuming The four top 6 teams pass on Ryan you have Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota who each have a spare third rounder to work with and Atlanta who has three second round picks & a 3rd round comp pick to go with their 3rd rounder. Miami has two second round picks and is reportedly intrigued by their second round QB from last year "after" reviewing tape - one wonders if they are blowing smoke... KC is trying to peddle Jared Allen for a 1st and 2nd, Minnesota is offering them a 1st and 3rd with other clubs getting into the act, what KC will do at #5 if they dump Allen will be interesting - one pundit speculated they would go after Chris Long which really makes no sense, but this is Herm and the people who hired him.

The other player whom pundits predicted may drop to #7 which I would expect to stimulate trade talks is Sedrick Ellis. Cincinnati, New Orleans, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Seattle, Jacksonville all have an apparent need for a DT like Ellis, there was a recent story claiming NO was trying to trade into the top 5 for Glenn Dorsey, but I would expect either St. Louis or Atlanta to take Dorsey as the presumed best player in this draft and a good fit for their defensive schemes. If NO wants the second best DT they need to move ahead of Cincy. In addition to the teams in the QB discussion who have extra picks, Jax has two thirds to work with.

[Hawg73]

Teams expected to be interested in a QB: (1) Miami, (3) Atlanta, (5) Kansas City, (6) NYJ, (8) Baltimore, (13) Carolina, (14) Chicago, (15) Detroit, (17) Minnesota, and (20) Tampa Bay. Assuming The four top 6 teams pass on Ryan you have Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota who each have a spare third rounder to work with and Atlanta who has three second round picks & a 3rd round comp pick to go with their 3rd rounder. Miami has two second round picks and is reportedly intrigued by their second round QB from last year "after" reviewing tape - one wonders if they are blowing smoke... KC is trying to peddle Jared Allen for a 1st and 2nd, Minnesota is offering them a 1st and 3rd with other clubs getting into the act, what KC will do at #5 if they dump Allen will be interesting - one pundit speculated they would go after Chris Long which really makes no sense, but this is Herm and the people who hired him.

The other player whom pundits predicted may drop to #7 which I would expect to stimulate trade talks is Sedrick Ellis. Cincinnati, New Orleans, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Seattle, Jacksonville all have an apparent need for a DT like Ellis, there was a recent story claiming NO was trying to trade into the top 5 for Glenn Dorsey, but I would expect either St. Louis or Atlanta to take Dorsey as the presumed best player in this draft and a good fit for their defensive schemes. If NO wants the second best DT they need to move ahead of Cincy. In addition to the teams in the QB discussion who have extra picks, Jax has two thirds to work with.
Some great analysis here and really interesting, but there are just so many variables.......Atlanta seems to be in great shape with 6 high picks and should be a major player with Dimitroff in charge.

Since their top two needs are OLT and QB, this draft seems to set up well at the top for them to address both high with possibly Jake Long and Matt Ryan and I would guess the Pats would be delighted to take a bunch of choice picks off their hands to allow them a crack at Ryan at 7. Maybe they would toss Keith Brooking into the mix or Michael Boley who can play with his hand down.

The problem with that scenario is that St. Louis needs Jake Long in the worst way and are in prime position to get him if Miami doesn't and Miami arguably has serviceable tackles (Shelton and Carey). I'd call it a lock if he is there.

Here is one scenario with explanations:

1. Miami - Chris Long. Parcell's defensive system attaches a big value to a versatile guy like this.

2. St Louis - Jake Long -- Maybe Bulger will actually last the whole season

3. Atlanta - Glenn Dorsey -- a perfect compliment to Rod Coleman in the middle and a fine concession pick after Jake goes.

4. Oakland - Vernon Gholston -- Drooling over McFadden a smokescreen

5. KC - Ryan Clady -- a bit of a reach, but needs overrides value and Herm isn't exactly Piolichick.

6. Jets -- Darren McFadden -- The Jets need a bust and McFadden is right out of central casting. All sizzle and no steak.

7. ATLANTA -- MATT RYAN QB _ Pats get 34 & 37 in the 2nd and 68 in the 3rd along with Keith Brooking. The points total is 1340 for the acquired picks vs. 1500 for the 7, so Brooking makes up the difference and gives us a couple of years and an instant rotational ILB to make the pieces fit.

This would allow us to get 5 of the theoretical top 69 players in the draft combined with our current 62 and 69 picks and a very solid vet whose usefullness is about at end in Atlanta.

Atlanta gets to keep a pick in both the 2nd & 3rd and trading away the others will help them manage the cap hit with two high 1sts getting the bulk of the cash.

So what could we do with such a windfall?

Maybe something like this (according to your rules on another thread)

34. Jerod Mayo ILB -- a young ILB to groom. At 2nd round dollars we can afford to wait a bit.

37. Cliff Avril OLB-- If you want an NFL rush linebacker then Purdue is where you look as that school has produced a bunch of them, including Rosey Colvin.

62. Roy Schuening G-- Super Bowl hangover convinces Pats to upgrade Oline and this guy is a snot-bubble blower in the mold of Mankins. Very tough. We can't afford to just hope Neal stays healthy and have to upgrade. Could play RT and is similar in build to our current guys.

68. Terrell Thomas CB - good size, zone corner and you know the Pats have checked him out personally.

69. Tom Zbikowski -- S/ST -- another upgrade for the d backfield and a tough, versatile guy with excellent ball skills and a Charlie Weis stamp of approval.

New blood for the LB corps, an instant starter in Brooking, new blood for the DBs and help for the Oline and we still have a bunch of picks left to do some bargain shopping to upgrade the rest of the roster.

I'd be happy with this scenario.

[Dwight Schrute]

Just what I expected when I posed the questions.

You guys know your sh$t! Thats some concise and plausible scenarios and I think I'd be all for the Atlanta deal, though I think they could target another CB too.

Follow up. Does Brooking have experience in 3-4 or project well for it? Not interested in another Beisel.

[Hawg73]

Just what I expected when I posed the questions.

You guys know your sh$t! Thats some concise and plausible scenarios and I think I'd be all for the Atlanta deal, though I think they could target another CB too.

Follow up. Does Brooking have experience in 3-4 or project well for it? Not interested in another Beisel.

Keith Brooking could play anywhere in any system in my opinion. He's 6'2" 245 and can still run. Not in his prime, but his acquisition allows us to develop Mayo slowly (as if we would just start a rookie). He's only got a couple of years left, but we already know our guys don't have a problem with that.

He likes playing the weak side best in the 4-3, but has been a pro bowler on the inside. There's that word again: versatile.

Comparing Brooking to Monty Beisel is like comparing Bill Belichick to Herm Edwards. The guy is a Patriot waiting to happen. Getting him as a throw-in is strictly a pipe dream, but not crazy talk either.

I wanted a higher rated corner also, but the numbers didn't work. I just figured that with all the eyeballing we've done of the USC guys that one of them would end up here and our system tends to favor zone guys over the higher-ranked cover guys and guessed that Thomas might be a guy we would like. That's a pure guess, I haven't a clue if the guy can play or not.

[Dwight Schrute]

You've sold me!

So on draft day I'll anticipate hearing "With the 7th pick, NE has made a trade with Atlanta for...."

[Hawg73]

You've sold me!

So on draft day I'll anticipate hearing "With the 7th pick, NE has made a trade with Atlanta for...."

The problem with my scenario is KC at 5. I don't feel comfortable with them taking Clady so high. They sent their entire FO to watch Ryan's pro day and could very well take him and screw everything up.

I forced that reach in order to get the Pats some extra 2nds & a 3rd, but the Chiefs are pretty desperate to rebuild their once-dominant OL, so it isn't totally implausible. I figure with Herm in charge, they could screw it up and take Clady. Maybe they seem him as the next Willie Roaf.

I'm beginning to really believe that Ryan falling to 7 is the key to our entire draft.

[EasyBigFella*]

Could be the Chiefs to move up. Could be the Ravens to move down(Ryan). Could be Carolina to move down(Ryan).

Those are three but it will be determined as to who drops to us. There will be many suitors. Hhow far we want to move down depends if they really like Rivers or not.

If Ryan or McFadden is there at 7, the Patriots will absolutely fleece someone. I'm hoping Ryan is there, though, since there are several teams needing a potential franchise QB. I just want to make sure the Pats load up on talent this year and do not keep pushing off first round picks to next year's draft like they've been doing.

I'd love to see McFadden available and get both of Dallas' first rounders this year to flip.

[patchick]

I think the #7 spot sets up extremely well for trade possibilities (assuming that multiple trades don't precede it, taking some of the likely teams out of the market). There seem to be 7+ prime targets:

J. Long
G. Dorsey
V. Gholston
M. Ryan
C. Long
S. Ellis
D. McFadden
+ possibilities of
R. Clady
K. Rivers

When I look for dance partners, the key is a significant talent dropoff at a position below a particular player. If Ellis is #7 you have that beautifully -- expect a bidding war. Cincinnati, New Orleans and Denver are 3 teams in great draft spots who would do well to move up for him. Ryan I feel certain will be gone, but if not, again you have a dropoff in talent at a hard-to-fill position, life is good.

Clady and Rivers could come into play in particular situations. E.g. Dorsey & Ellis are off the board so Rivers looks like the natural pick for the Bengals, and another LB-hungry team (Denver, Detroit, Arizona) decides to jump ahead of them.

The scenario that worries me most is something along these lines:

1. Dorsey
2. J. Long
3. M. Ryan
4. V. Gholston
5. Trade: Cincinnati takes S. Ellis
6. C. Long

Now you're sitting with McFadden as the highest-value player at #7. The Ravens could still trigger the Rivers scenario, or a Carolina could try to move ahead of KC for Clady, but what about McFadden himself? With at least 2 other premium RBs still out there, I don't see a lot of urgency on the board.

[Hawg73]

1. Dorsey
2. J. Long
3. M. Ryan
4. V. Gholston
5. Trade: Cincinnati takes S. Ellis
6. C. Long

Now you're sitting with McFadden as the highest-value player at #7. The Ravens could still trigger the Rivers scenario, or a Carolina could try to move ahead of KC for Clady, but what about McFadden himself? With at least 2 other premium RBs still out there, I don't see a lot of urgency on the board.


Yeah, that would be a nightmare, but I can't imagine Chris Long lasting until 6.

The problem with modern drafting is that there aren't nearly as many dumbasses out there who would pay a king's ransom for a back like McFadden who is going to get himself hurt in pro ball, but there are always a couple of teams that fall in love and live to regret it.

I could maybe see us moving mid-1st to get a top corner and both the Bears at 14 and Cards at 16 need RBs. We'd probably have our pick of everyone outside of McKelvin and get a 2nd rounder.

Maybe a Quentin Groves is good enough for our guys to take him at 16. The DeMarcus Ware comparisons mean he won't last forever and seems to be ranked higher every time I look. I'd love to land him, but it's going to take a mid to late 1st.

Based on value charts, the Cards #16 and their #50 in the 2nd equals exactly 1500 points or the value of 7.

Quentin Groves and Reggie Smith or Curtis Lofton for 7? Not too shabby.

[Dwight Schrute]

What's the combined value of Dallas 2 #1's?

Even if its slightly less than our 7, if Jones has a man-crush on McFadden that would be ideal.

[Hawg73]

What's the combined value of Dallas 2 #1's?

Even if its slightly less than our 7, if Jones has a man-crush on McFadden that would be ideal.


That would be the case with 1440 as opposed to 1500.

Most people say that teams would have a hard time getting the actual points value shown on the chart for the higher picks in trade due to salary cap and particularly rookie cap restraints and more teams are reluctant to draft high lately, but I'd much rather have Dallas' 22 & 28 selections than a 7 if only because of the way the talent doesn't break in our favor at the top.

You could turn those two picks into, perhaps, Antoine Cason or Mike Jenkins and Quentin Groves and address two needs for the price of one.

I have a hard time believing Jones is really that hot-to-trot for Run DMC, except his track records suggests he is an inverterate Texas blabbermouth, so maybe he would be willing to deal.

So far we have at least a couple or three candidates who you could make legit cases for trading with and maybe really *cliche alert* helping both teams in the process.

At this point I can't see a likely target falling to us. I'd handicaps the odds of trading down at 4-1 for.

[Box_O_Rocks]

The scenario that worries me most is something along these lines:

1. Dorsey
2. J. Long
3. M. Ryan
4. V. Gholston
5. Trade: Cincinnati takes S. Ellis
6. C. Long
I don't see Dorsey fitting into Miami's expected 3-4 defensive scheme, but I would expect him to go no later than #3. There was some talk about NO shopping to move up for a shot at Dorsey, which probably won't change things too much. The thing that works in NE's favor is the high cost of top 5 picks, the thing that works against them is the shortage of elite talent in this draft creating a potential demand for a shot at one of those elite prospects.

[patchick]

I don't see Dorsey fitting into Miami's expected 3-4 defensive scheme, but I would expect him to go no later than #3. There was some talk about NO shopping to move up for a shot at Dorsey, which probably won't change things too much. The thing that works in NE's favor is the high cost of top 5 picks, the thing that works against them is the shortage of elite talent in this draft creating a potential demand for a shot at one of those elite prospects.

Fair enough -- my main finger-crossing is for somebody to bite on McFadden, assuring that one of the more tradeable (or Pats-draft-worthy) picks is around at #7.

I just don't buy the rumors that Jerry Jones is ready to chuck it all for McFadden. I don't know why I don't buy it, since it's like him in a way, but I don't.

[papatrips]

-I can see Jones trading with the Jets for McFadden, it prevents the Jets from taking him and Jones gets his man.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Fair enough -- my main finger-crossing is for somebody to bite on McFadden, assuring that one of the more tradeable (or Pats-draft-worthy) picks is around at #7.

I just don't buy the rumors that Jerry Jones is ready to chuck it all for McFadden. I don't know why I don't buy it, since it's like him in a way, but I don't.I'm with you, I'd love for someone to chase McFadden and give the Pats a shot at Chris or Vernon. Jerry ain't that desperate for McFadden, what would be fun is if both McFadden & Ellis dropped and NO swapped with NE for Ellis leaving McFadden sitting at #10 - then we might see Jerry get twitchy(-er).

[Box_O_Rocks]

-I can see Jones trading with the Jets for McFadden, it prevents the Jets from taking him and Jones gets his man.No question the Jest jump all over that trade, and I think the extra visits with McFadden have been trade bait... Curse them.

[ParanoidPatriot]

But don't forget, we have more trade power than the Jets and we can jump them and tell Jerry we will take McFadden. That will get us his 2 #1's if he wants him bad enough.

But I think that will not happen. They have Barber so Jones would be the better comp back for him.

[Box_O_Rocks]

But don't forget, we have more trade power than the Jets and we can jump them and tell Jerry we will take McFadden. That will get us his 2 #1's if he wants him bad enough.

But I think that will not happen. They have Barber so Jones would be the better comp back for him.:blink: :huh: :shrug: popcorn

[ParanoidPatriot]

:blink: :huh: :shrug: popcorn

Next time I'll type it slowly but I have to rake up my yard.