Draft - Analysis of the Top 13 picks of the last 10 years.....

[freak]

02 - 2 QB, 2 DE, 3 OT, 2 DB, 3 DT, 1 WR
01 - 1 QB, 1 OT, 4 DT, 3 DE, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 LB
00 - 3 DE, 2 LB, 1 OT, 3 WR, 3 RB, 1 DT
99 - 5 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 DB, 1 LB
98 - 2 QB, 3 DE, 2 DB, 2 RB, 2 OT, 2 LB
97 - 2 OT, 1 DT, 4 DB, 2 LB, 1 WR, 1 OG, 1 RB, 1 TE
96 - 2 WR, 1 LB, 3 DE, 2 OT, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 DB
95 - 1 RB, 1 OT, 2 QB, 3 WR, 3 DE, 1 TE, 1 DT, 1 LB
94 - 3 DT, 1 RB, 2 QB, 3 DE, 2 LB, 2 DB
93 - 2 QB, 2 RB, 1 LB, 3 DE, 1 WR, 3 OT, 1 DB

In '00, Abraham was considered a LB, which is also where he initially played. I'm counting him as a DE here.

In '97, Boulware was considered a DE. I'm counting him as a LB, where is currently playing.

QB - 16 (1.6 avg)
RB - 15 (1.5 avg)
WR - 16 (1.6 avg)
TE - 3 (0.3 avg)
OT - 15 (1.5 avg)
OG - 1 (0.1 avg)
DT - 13 (1.3 avg)
DE - 23 (2.3 avg)
LB - 13 (1.3 avg)
DB - 15 (1.5 avg)

Ok, I think you can safely eliminate RB, TE, and OG from contention this year.

DE should probably fall short of the avg, what with Suggs being the only real Top 13 selection at this point. Haynes has an outside shot, but more likely between #14-#19 at best.

LB should miss their avg of basically 1. Henderson is the only shot, imo, and unlikely for Top 13.

So here's a guess at the Top 13.....

2 QB - Palmer and Leftwich. Avg rounds up.

2 WR - Rogers and Johnson, who I think rises come draft time. Avg rounds up.

2 OT - Two of Gross, Harris, and Steinbach. Avg rounds up.

1 DE - Suggs.

2 DB - Two of Newman, Trufant, and Woolfork. Avg rounds up.

4 DT - Huge year with the underclassmen. 4 of Kennedy, Williams, Robertson, Joseph and Sullivan.

Can people deal with the one DT of those 5, who slips to #14 in this scenario?

I could.

Personal preferances? Robertson or Williams.

Likely? IMO Joseph or Sullivan. Would prefer Sullivan to Joseph.

Rien Long is the Wild Card in the DT sweeps, IMO.

[pookie]

Originally posted by freak
02 - 2 QB, 2 DE, 3 OT, 2 DB, 3 DT, 1 WR
01 - 1 QB, 1 OT, 4 DT, 3 DE, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 LB
00 - 3 DE, 2 LB, 1 OT, 3 WR, 3 RB, 1 DT
99 - 5 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 DB, 1 LB
98 - 2 QB, 3 DE, 2 DB, 2 RB, 2 OT, 2 LB
97 - 2 OT, 1 DT, 4 DB, 2 LB, 1 WR, 1 OG, 1 RB, 1 TE
96 - 2 WR, 1 LB, 3 DE, 2 OT, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 DB
95 - 1 RB, 1 OT, 2 QB, 3 WR, 3 DE, 1 TE, 1 DT, 1 LB
94 - 3 DT, 1 RB, 2 QB, 3 DE, 2 LB, 2 DB
93 - 2 QB, 2 RB, 1 LB, 3 DE, 1 WR, 3 OT, 1 DB

In '00, Abraham was considered a LB, which is also where he initially played. I'm counting him as a DE here.

In '97, Boulware was considered a DE. I'm counting him as a LB, where is currently playing.

QB - 16 (1.6 avg)
RB - 15 (1.5 avg)
WR - 16 (1.6 avg)
TE - 3 (0.3 avg)
OT - 15 (1.5 avg)
OG - 1 (0.1 avg)
DT - 13 (1.3 avg)
DE - 23 (2.3 avg)
LB - 13 (1.3 avg)
DB - 15 (1.5 avg)

Ok, I think you can safely eliminate RB, TE, and OG from contention this year.

DE should probably fall short of the avg, what with Suggs being the only real Top 13 selection at this point. Haynes has an outside shot, but more likely between #14-#19 at best.

LB should miss their avg of basically 1. Henderson is the only shot, imo, and unlikely for Top 13.

So here's a guess at the Top 13.....

2 QB - Palmer and Leftwich. Avg rounds up.

2 WR - Rogers and Johnson, who I think rises come draft time. Avg rounds up.

2 OT - Two of Gross, Harris, and Steinbach. Avg rounds up.

1 DE - Suggs.

2 DB - Two of Newman, Trufant, and Woolfork. Avg rounds up.

4 DT - Huge year with the underclassmen. 4 of Kennedy, Williams, Robertson, Joseph and Sullivan.

Can people deal with the one DT of those 5, who slips to #14 in this scenario?

I could.

Personal preferances? Robertson or Williams.

Likely? IMO Joseph or Sullivan. Would prefer Sullivan to Joseph.

Rien Long is the Wild Card in the DT sweeps, IMO.

Quick question... What year is Dorsey from Miami in? Is he coming out in the draft? If he is, wouldn't he figure into the equation somewhere for some team?

[freak]

Originally posted by pookie
Quick question... What year is Dorsey from Miami in? Is he coming out in the draft? If he is, wouldn't he figure into the equation somewhere for some team?

No.

If Dorsey breaks into the 2nd round, I'd be surprised. Most likely 3rd-4th rnd type.

After Palmer and Leftwich, the QBs you're looking at going next are Ragone (who I think sux) and Boller (big turn around Sr season like Palmer). But at best, Boller looks like he could pull a "Patrick Ramsey" like last year, and jump into the late first.

Either way, should have no effect on who goes before our #14 pick.

[pookie]

Originally posted by freak
No.

If Dorsey breaks into the 2nd round, I'd be surprised. Most likely 3rd-4th rnd type.

After Palmer and Leftwich, the QBs you're looking at going next are Ragone (who I think sux) and Boller (big turn around Sr season like Palmer). But at best, Boller looks like he could pull a "Patrick Ramsey" like last year, and jump into the late first.

Either way, should have no effect on who goes before our #14 pick.

Not questioning you cuz I don't really know jack about the draft for the most part, but why do you think Dorsey will go so late? He threw for like 3400 yds, 28 TD's and only 12 INT's. Plus he's a big, strong kid with a pro demeanor.

Originally posted by freak
I think you can safely eliminate RB, TE, and OG from contention this year.

Good post.

I LOVE the draft. One of my favorite times of the year, right up there with the anticipation of TC/preseason, and the month of October when you have football, hockey and the Series. The Draft is all about possibilities -- time to dream.

I agree with you on the OG and TE (although the TE Position is the subject of an entire thread of its own) Why do you feel that we rule out RB? You are looking at talent available and who might be there at 14-19. Mcgahee's injury clearly hurt the Pats in that regard from the standpoint of depth. A team that planned to take Mcgahee and needs an RB will now take someone who would have dropped to the Pats. Are you saying Lee Suggs, Onterrio Smith and Larry Johnson are gone by the time we pick or do you just not think the talent warrants a first rounder?

Clearly tackle is a greater need than Guard. (Center in my opinion is a greater need than guard from the standpoint that Woody would be an exceptional guard but is only a slightly better than average center.) Light could also move to Guard. If the Pats pick up a legitimate left tackle they would have the makings for an outstanding line.

I agree that Defensive Tackle is clearly the primary need and it looks to be one of the deeper positions in the draft. I like Miami’s tandem of Joseph and Vince Wilfork but you could argue that they make each other better. Wilfork would be the kind of guy that could free up Seymour. I think ultimately Seymour is out of position and that his body type is not suited to being on the interior. It seems to me the Pats are wasting his speed and wingspan by playing him inside. I would like to see what he could do on the end. I am not sure that we can go wrong with any of the DT’s that are available.

[freak]

Originally posted by pookie
Not questioning you cuz I don't really know jack about the draft for the most part, but why do you think Dorsey will go so late? He threw for like 3400 yds, 28 TD's and only 12 INT's. Plus he's a big, strong kid with a pro demeanor.

Well because he's not a big, strong kid, although I'll grant you he has a pro demeanor. He's very slight of build, and has a noodle arm.

He's like our own starting QB, but gets more attention. And despite Brady not having Drew's arm, he doesn't have a weak arm. Dorsey's arm is really bad.

The team around him could almost be considered as talented as a few NFL teams. Think of the offensive weapons....

Santana Moss
Reggie Wayne
Jeremy Shockey
Bubba Franks
Andre Johnson
Clinton Portis
James Jackson
Willis McGahee
Frank Gore

Not sure off the top of my head, but he may have played with Edgerrin James.

His OL could all be in the NFL. McKinney was a Top 10 tackle, and Gonzalez is with the Browns. Romberg should be in the league this year, as well as one of his guards.

This kid's uniform had hardly seen a grass stain before the Fiesta Bowl.

Dorsey's a good college QB without the measurables for the NFL. He's got the mind, and will probably be a decent backup. But he's no first rounder, and unlikely to be a regular starting QB in the league.

[freak]

Originally posted by NoRespect
I agree with you on the OG and TE (although the TE Position is the subject of an entire thread of its own) Why do you feel that we rule out RB?

I should clarify.

I don't mean the Pats would rule out those positions. I mean you can probably rule out any prospects of those positions to go Top 13. I'm trying to see who has a good chance of sliding to the Pats at #14.

At least one, maybe two of the top DTs should be there, and both top LBs (although BB historically does not draft LBs high).

Are you saying Lee Suggs, Onterrio Smith and Larry Johnson are gone by the time we pick or do you just not think the talent warrants a first rounder?

Neither.

I don't think any of those 3 will merit a Top 13 selection. Of those players, imo only Suggs and Johnson merit first round picks. Not impressed with Smith, and he's had problems with Mary Jane in the past, so I doubt BB would take him.

Clearly tackle is a greater need than Guard. (Center in my opinion is a greater need than guard from the standpoint that Woody would be an exceptional guard but is only a slightly better than average center.)

I think guard is the worst need. But not in the first round. Compton gets manhandled by strong bull rushers, and Andruzzi is gutsy but nothing special. I still think Klemm should get a shot at LT, as he played very well at the end of the year at RT. That could push Light inside, and help two positions without spending a draft pick.

I disagree on Woody. The only reason he's not a Pro Bowler, imo, is because of the shotgun issue. And that is mental......I've seen him do it flawlessly at training camp, but for whatever reason he can't do it in games.

I like Miami’s tandem of Joseph and Vince Wilfork but you could argue that they make each other better.

I'm not that high on Joseph. Too inconsistent.

Wilfork is staying in school. Made a promise to his parents, who both died recently, that he'd get his degree.

Originally posted by freak

I think guard is the worst need. But not in the first round. Compton gets manhandled by strong bull rushers, and Andruzzi is gutsy but nothing special. I still think Klemm should get a shot at LT, as he played very well at the end of the year at RT. That could push Light inside, and help two positions without spending a draft pick.

I disagree on Woody. The only reason he's not a Pro Bowler, imo, is because of the shotgun issue. And that is mental......I've seen him do it flawlessly at training camp, but for whatever reason he can't do it in games.

Don't get me wrong, I like Woody, I just don't think he is on the level of Kevin Mawae of the Jets. Woody seems to disappear for games at a time -- he doesn't get dominated, he just doesn't make anything happen. I think that freed from the responsibilities of the center position and just allowed to tee off he could be an amazing guard. Snapping is a big part of the center's job....

I agree completely on the issue of guard being a pressing need. I just think we have two great ones -- Woody and Light. Now go out and get a left tackle and a center that doesn't have to be rotated when the Pats are in the shotgun. Belichick has too many things to worry about to be trying to platoon the center and coach two players at two different positions. That is not good for the unit as a whole.

I can't say I am real high on Klemm mostly because I don't like linemen that simply don't do anything to hurt you. I like linemen who can carry the game to the opponent. You might be right on this but there is also a difference between playing Right Tackle and Left.

Wilfork is staying in school. Made a promise to his parents, who both died recently, that he'd get his degree.

That's too bad. I wasn't aware of his personal life problems but how he is choosing to handle it is one more reason to like the guy.

[Hawg73]

Good post. So much of this stuff depends on having the time to watch the college game, and I haven't spent as much time watching it this year other than BC.

I am depending on mock drafts, unnamed sources, unnamed scouts, innuendo and free draft sites for my info which history will show you means there is a bunch of information that I will only hear post-draft when the horses are all in the barns.

I try not to get overly fired up for this thing, but every spring....I cave in and spend a fair amount of time studying up. The fact that we have two picks (at least) that have a fair chance of landing future stars means that I'm doing a lot of surfing and trying to absorb info.

I agree with some of your points. I think Woody is just fine overall and he is apparently yipping on the shotgun snaps. Many golfers never recover from that malady and I seriously doubt BB will settle for another year of musical centers. I know that Jeff Fain is slated to go later but is rising, considered a sure thing by many and could be the object of moving up in the second if he lasts that long. It wouldn't shock me if he was the 19th pick either even though we could use another tackle probably worse. BB drafted a center in the 1st with Cleveland so has proved he will draft against conventional wisdom. The man has balls - that's for sure.

I have watched Klemm as much as possible and though I like his atheletic ability, particularly on traps and sweeps and applaud his job on Ogunleye vs. Miami (definitely his finest moment), but have seen him get manhandled way too often for my tastes and I doubt he is really strong enough to start at tackle. His push is sub-standard IMO. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't believe either Light, Klemm or Jones will have a long-term career as tackles in this league and think that Harris, Gross and Steinbach all are valued at mid first so one of them will probably be wearing the Elvis next year. I hope I'm wrong, since it takes too long for an O-lineman to develop and I like the instant gratification that a Patriots draft seldom brings. I'm guessing BB is frustrated and will address this need sooner than people think.

I liked your breakdown and concur that one of the good DT types will drop. I also am sceptical about Joseph and have seen him a number of times. Good athlete, not physically dominant. The news about Rien Long bodes well for us since he is not supposed to be a BB two-gapper type and might drive one that is one our way. Robertson would be ideal, but he'll likely be gone. Kennedy too.

I would settle for a DE at 19 but only if it is Michael Haynes. He looks like a top pro to me and he has an excellent name pedigree for us. He is one of the few guys at that postition with pro size and speed. Lots of tweeners this year.

If I had to guess on a DT I would say either Jonathon Sullivan or Kevin Williams will drop to 14 since somebody always makes an off-the-wall move that nobody expects and like what these guys could bring. Hopefully the DT trend will cool off a little this year and somebody will slide. We sure could use one.

Still a long way to go and plenty will change between now and April but things are taking shape.

If they draft a CB and an OT I will be disappointed but not shocked.

[freak]

Originally posted by NoRespect
You might be right on this but there is also a difference between playing Right Tackle and Left.

You should take into account, though, that Klemm was drafted as a LT.

He played LT in college, and was considered a LT prospect by most due to his athleticism.

He was playing LT in camp last year, and was reportedly the best looking lineman, before he hyperextended his elbow. Thats when Light took over.

This year, Klemm never really got a shot. They gave him time at both OG spots mostly. Although draft reports indicated that Klemm wasn't strong enough to play OG, it was reported that he bulked up after his first season. One report I read described him as looking as if he'd "swallowed a barbell." He also has a nasty attitude on the field.....remember the windshield incident? Temper, temper. Whereas Kenyatta Jones was sometimes described as a "gentle giant" type, it fit that Klemm may get a shot at OG, with Light entrenched at LT.

He only played RT because of Jones and Ro-Ra struggling.

IMO, Klemm has never got a real shot at the LT spot, and I'd like to see what he could do in a competition with Light this summer.

[freak]

Alice,

Could you clarify what you are asking?

Are you asking if certain positions tend to get more money?

If it were free agency, I'd say yes.

But as far as the draft goes, it is pretty much depends on draft slot, particularly outside of the first round.

There is a general consensus on salary from the 2nd round on, with each pick making progressively less. There are exceptions, where a team might give a guy a larger than expected signing bonus (couple hundred K), but it is generally set on the salary with the later picks making rookie minimum. It tends to rise slightly each year.

As for the first round, those tend to take longer. Many agents try to wait until the #1 pick signs, so on and so forth, and then fall into line behind it.

That was the big problem last year......Dallas traded down with KC from #6 to #8. KC took Ryan Sims ahead of Minnesota, which ruffled some feathers because there was some question whether the deal was made on time. Minnesota took McKinnie, and Dallas took the guy they wanted all along, Roy Williams.

But then Dallas went and screwed everything up, by signing Williams as if he had been picked at #6.

So McKinnie and Sims went through long hold outs (most of the year for the former), because their agents didn't want their guys picked at #6 and #7, to sign for less than the #8 pick.

Originally posted by freak
You should take into account, though, that Klemm was drafted as a LT. He played LT in college, and was considered a LT prospect by most due to his athleticism. He was playing LT in camp last year, and was reportedly the best looking lineman, before he hyperextended his elbow. Thats when Light took over.

IMO, Klemm has never got a real shot at the LT spot, and I'd like to see what he could do in a competition with Light this summer.

All good points, although some reports rated him a potential NFL guard. I am not saying it couldn't work. I don't think he is strong enough to be inside and he has always impressed me more as a technician than as a purely physical linemen.

What do you think about Scarnecchia? I know he has been there forever but look at the Pats line going back ten years or so and it hasn't exactly been a strength. Maybe it is time for a change. Could the problem be that we have the talent and just aren't using it correctly? We are both saying almost exactly the same thing -- we just differ in terms of which players we think are playing out of position.

On a somewhat related note Football.com is reporting that the Pats are shopping for a D-line coach:


"The Patriots are shopping for a defensive line coach. They have been trying to work out a deal with former Jacksonville assistant Steve Szabo. They are also in the market for a quarterbacks coach, and have asked the Kansas City Chiefs for permission to speak to their coach, Terry Shea. However, he would have to be released from his contract. The Patriots are also considering at least two others who are free to talk, former Arizona offensive coordinator Rich Olson, and ex-Jacksonville coach John Hufnagel."

This is overdue in my opinion as they didn't have a dedicated d-line coach -- Crennel handled it. They need to bring in some new blood not only on the line, but in terms of technique and attitude.

[pookie]

Guys and gal....

Thanks for all this good stuff. This is by far the most informative thread that's been on this board yet (next to the politics, of course...ugghh). But seriously, this is really good sh!t for somebody like myself that doesn't get a lot of time to watch college ball or study the draft.

Keep up the banter!

[freak]

Alice,

I would say that LB is a very good bet for FA moves.

Belichick's system is pretty complex, so he likes veterans. Most rookies are no lock to start, even first rounders, let alone in a system as complex as BBs.

In addition, LBs value tend to get depressed in the FA market. And to make things better for the Pats, this year's FA LB crop is not only deep, but filled with quality. This should only push down the asking price.

Add to this, historical precedent.....in 8 years as a head coach, Belichick has taken 1 LB in the first round. And that was at the #30 pick. He traded DOWN from #23 to make this pick, so he clearly doesn't lean towards taking LBs high in the first. His next highest drafted LB was in the 3rd round, and he's not drafted one higher than the 7th with the Pats.

Two FA LBs of note for the Pats......Mike Mazlowski and Roosevelt Colvin. Mazlowski was a LB that the Pats signed to an offer sheet last year, but the Chiefs matched. He's bigger, as BB tends to prefer at LB, and has a 'never say die' attitude. Not the most athletically gifted, but smart and gets the job done. Just what BB tends to go for at the position. Colvin also matches the type of LB that Belichick likes. He's played some at LB and DE, and is an adept pass rusher. McGinest and Vrabel have played quite a bit of DE, and Bruschi was a stud DE in college. Furthermore, Phifer even played DE in training camp last year when McGoo was hurt.

I think Belichick would prefer veteran CBs too. Again, mostly due to the complexity of the position. I think he likes a solid, lower round draftee at the position, whom he can groom into his system. See Brock Williams and Leonard Myers at CB, and Antwan Harris at S/NB.

It does not appear to be that good a FA crop at CB this year though. You have the stud (McAllister), and a bunch of okay guys, but nothing really better than we already have.

Stud DTs and DEs tend to go for big bucks in FA, so it is easier to get them in the draft. With all the top prospects this year, it makes that much more im important. The reason is simple.....there simply aren't that many 300 pound men, who can run that fast. If there were any year to pair Seymour with another stud DT (or NT and move Seymour to DE in a 34), this is the year to do it.

That said.......I asked TFY recently about potential draftees who fits the profile of BB players at DE, LB, and CB.

Didn't quite get the answer I was looking for (oh well), but they said that the Pats could very well go RB in the first. That they think they made a big mistake with Smith. I asked if there any particular prospects, and they seem to think that Larry Johnson is the guy. I personally can't see them going RB that high, particularly with a defense that gave up over 200 rushing yards 4 times.

[pookie]

Originally posted by freak
Colvin also matches the type of LB that Belichick likes. He's played some at LB and DE, and is an adept pass rusher.

Love to see Colvin in a Pats uni and he is a FA, but surely he'll require the big $$$ to get him signed.....?

[freak]

That is the rub on Colvin.....he wants big money, and so far the Bears haven't stepped up. That's why he wants to test the market.

I just think he may be disappointed. There is alot of quality at LB in free agency this year. When you consider that FA LBs have tended to go for less than their perceived worth, a large quality class should help with price.

The wild card with Colvin is Buffalo. They've got alot of money to spend, and clear problems at LB. Word is also that they like Colvin very much. In the end, they can probably offer more than the Pats or anyone else.

[pookie]

Originally posted by freak
That is the rub on Colvin.....he wants big money, and so far the Bears haven't stepped up. That's why he wants to test the market.

I just think he may be disappointed. There is alot of quality at LB in free agency this year. When you consider that FA LBs have tended to go for less than their perceived worth, a large quality class should help with price.

The wild card with Colvin is Buffalo. They've got alot of money to spend, and clear problems at LB. Word is also that they like Colvin very much. In the end, they can probably offer more than the Pats or anyone else.

From what you just said about Buff and from what I've been reading about the surprisingly un-happy cap situation here, we shouldn't get our hopes up about Colvin. That is unless the Pats can unload some of the big contracts.... the likes of Willie and Ted Johnson. Colvin is a bad ass. I wouldn't want to see him in the Bills org period.

[freak]

Larry Johnson has plenty of speed to take it the distance, and has very good size (225ish).

What he isn't is quick. He doesn't hit the hole all that quickly, and can sometimes be indecisive. Not what we really need.

He also tends to run upright, which can get him killed at the next level.

If they were gonna take a 1st round RB, I say trade down a bit, and take Lee Suggs.

No, he doesn't have the size of Antowain or Johnson. But he runs with great power, and is a TD MACHINE. He also has extremely good speed. The question on him is the knee, but he didn't seem to suffer much this year. And with an ACL generally considered a 'two year' injury, he should only be in better shape next year.

[freak]

Womack is talented, and has potential, but you can't rely on him.

Personally, I've never liked him as a prospect. I think he's overrated.

Plus he's had some off-field problems (don't recall exactly what), and this knee injury isn't his first problem.

Womack has had a history of injuries and getting dinged up.

As a 7th round pick, he's a no risk, potential reward guy. But I wouldn't count on anything from him.

[pookie]

Originally posted by freak
Womack is talented, and has potential, but you can't rely on him.

Personally, I've never liked him as a prospect. I think he's overrated.

Plus he's had some off-field problems (don't recall exactly what), and this knee injury isn't his first problem.

Womack has had a history of injuries and getting dinged up.

As a 7th round pick, he's a no risk, potential reward guy. But I wouldn't count on anything from him.

But wasn't he just about ready to go for the last couple games of the season? I wonder if he'll be full speed in camp and have a chance to earn his way into a starting position.

[freak]

I don't think he was 'ready' to go. I think he was physically capable of playing. There is a difference. He tore his ACL, which is generally considered a 'two year' injury to regain form, if at all.

He 'could' come into camp full speed and challenge for the starting job.

But I don't think you can count on it. I don't think you can count on him staying healthy even if he does.

And for me personally, I always thought he was overrated at UVA.

[Hawg73]

The following is a list of player profiles taken from various draft websites and includes some scouting reports from the recent Senior Bowl. I tried to include guys that we could use and that are currently projected to be available at around 14 or 19 depending on who you listen to. Some of it is just plain my opinion (Faine).

For instance Jimmy Kennedy and Terrell Suggs are better DL prospects than the guys I have listed but will be top 5 selections so I didn't bother with their profiles. Also I don't believe WR Andre Johnson will last that long and a few others. At least a few of these guys will be picked in the top 13 but all could potentially be around for us. I have listed them in approximate order of who I would most like to see us get. Bear in mind it is early and the upcoming NFL combines in Feb. usually change things a lot but I think it's a pretty solid bet that at least one of them will be a Patriot next year. If you reply to this post, please delete my portion since it is pretty long.
================================================== ====================

DEWAYNE ROBERTSON DT 6' 3" 310 Kentucky Jr. - Is flying up the board. Might end up as a top 12 pick. From a size and athletic standpoint, Robertson has just about everything an NFL scout could want. He's very quick and powerful, is solid at the point of attack and can get into the opponent's backfield. Robertson was a very good college player, but he didn't dominate week in and week out as one might expect. Nonetheless, when you take a look at the tools of this player and then assess his upside potential, Robertson looks like a solid first round player.

KEVIN WILLIAMS- DT 6' 5" 284 Oklahoma State Sr. - Four year starter Kevin Williams was absolutely unstoppable this afternoon and may have moved himself into the first round. Big and strong, Williams offers outstanding athleticism and explosiveness. He ran over blockers and around them on his way into the backfield. The end result had scouts smiling every time Williams put his hand on the ground. One Oakland Raider scout put it best when he told us, "Williams is a monster"

E.J. HENDERSON LB 6' 1" 250 Maryland - No one could have predicted his 2001 season. Finished with 150 tackles, 6 sacks, and an astounding 28 tackles for loss. Prototype size. Runs downhill and is aggressive towards blockers - meeting, greeting, and discarding them quickly to make the play. Good, not great speed to the flanks and is more of a Jeremiah Trotter physical tone-setter type, than Ray Lewis speed, speed, speed type of mike backer. if there is a concern with Henderson, it is his health. Was banged up throughout the 2000 season with a sprained knee and rumors persist that it was concerns about his neck and back that kept Henderson from declaring early for the draft las season. Had surgery on his back this past spring and missed spring practice, but has enjoyed a solid, if somewhat unspectacular 2002 season, thus far.

MICHAEL HAYNES - DE 6 3 280 Another North defender garnering praise is Michael Haynes, who again pressured quarterbacks up the field. Haynes is starting to dispel the rumor he cannot defend the run. Every time opposing blockers try to handle him, Haynes slides off to the inside and makes a play. On a number of occasions, Haynes was in the quarterback's face but had to pull up, as hitting the passer is not allowed.

MARCUS TRUFANT CB 6' 200 - Washington State - The other player deservedly getting a lot of attention is Marcus Trufant of Washington State. A true shutdown corner, it's been rare for Trufant to allow a reception this week. His skills are impeccable as is the intelligence with which he plays. He has caught the eye of many teams, possibly none more than the Kansas City Chiefs as general manager Carl Peterson and head coach **** Vermeil had a long discussion with the cornerback after practice.

WILLIAM JOSEPH DT 6' 5 " 290 Miami -Great natural athlete. Moves about the line as if he were 260 pounds, rather than 290. Has the size and pure athletic ability to play either defensive tackle or defensive end at a high level in the NFL. Body style and productivity remind me a great deal of former Clemson star and now Pro Bowler, Trevor Pryce. Despite the talent surrounding him, opponents begin and end their blocking schemes with Joseph. A collapse the pocket type defensive tackle, but unlike many of the pass rushing tackles on this list, Joseph has the size to play the two gap scheme, as well as the one gap here are other DTs in the country with more upside, but none with Joseph's size/athleticism combination, ability to play in either the one or two gap system, and his proven track record. In a year potentially loaded with DT talent, Joseph looks, at least at this point, to be the surest choice.

JONATHON SULLIVAN DT - Georgia Jr. - Sullivan, a 6-foot-4, 300- Sullivan is an ideal one-gap type defensive tackle. He is very quick and can get into gaps. He is very quick off of the snap and will make plays in the opponent's backfield. He showed tremendous improvement as a junior, and is likely to get nothing but better. However, Sullivan lacks great natural size and might only fit in one-gap styles of defense once he gets to the NFL. But overall, Sullivan is a quality player that has good upside potential. As of now, Sullivan looks to be a player that will be selected in the mid to late round one area of the 2003 NFL draft.

RIEN LONG DT 6'6" 284 - Washington St. Jr. - a player likened to former No. 1 pick Steve Entman, he won the Outland trophy this year as the nations best interior lineman. Known as "the Caveman" in the Northwest I couldn't find any real scouting reports on him. He plans on attending the NFL combine in February but is rated mid-first round or possibly earlier by some scouts at this time.

ERIC STEINBACH OG/OT - 6' 6" 290 Iowa offensive lineman Eric Steinbach had a brilliant morning session, dominating opponents on every snap. A guard for the Hawkeyes, Steinbach more than held his own when placed at left tackle and adequately protected the blind side throughout practice.
**rumors have it that the Patriots love this guy**

JEFF FAINE - C 6' 3" 300 Notre Dame - Possibly the most complete O-lineman this year he is considered by some the toughest, most agressive blocker available. Would allow us to move Woody to guard. A telling quote from Fain:

" One of my biggest strengths is that I always play hard. I love playing to the whistle - even past the whistle. I love finishing my blocks. I have a little bit of a nasty streak. I love to take the game to the limit. I love this game. It is a physical, contact game that I just love being a part of."

I know we need players at other positions worse than a center but he is going to make somebody very happy and I'd love to see him here..

KWAME HARRIS OT 6' 7" 308 Stanford - Among the top offensive tackles the draft. Clear 1st round pick. Plays right tackle for the Cardinal, but is equally effective as a run and pass blocker. Is quick off the snap and attacks the defensive end with strong, active hands. Good feet, but isn't ready yet for a possible move to the left side. Can maul the defender in the running game, but needs to play low with more consistency. Can be beat by super speed off the edge, but will pay undersized defensive ends back in running game.

JORDAN GROSS OT 6' 5" 305 Utah - Great mentality for an offensive tackle. Is tough, aggressive, and nasty on the field. Very good natural athleticism. One of the better run blocking left tackles in the country. Often asked to block at the 2nd level - a bit rare for a left tackle. Can pancake the defender when run blocking, but isn't an all or nothing guy like the dominating run blockers that come out of Nebraska and other power running schools. Dominates his man on some plays, but at the very least walls his opponent off from the play and doesn't allow him to make the tackle. A natural knee bender in the passing game. Has good, quick footwork. Remains balanced, even vs. speed rushers. Strong hands and uses them as well as any tackle I've scouted this season.

[Hawg73]

Originally posted by FallingAlice
Some very quick observations...

Dewayne Robertson. Whenever I hear the word "Inconsistent" I get nervous. Despite the great potential upside.

Rien Long -- Didn't Washington State play in the Rose Bowl this year? If Rien Long is the player I'm thinking of, then he's GREAT. I came away from that game thinking, what a catch.

Steinbach -- This is an emotional thing for me. I'd love to see a Hawkeye in a Patriots Uni.

William Joseph -- Something tells me he'd be a Jason Taylor type. You couldn't do any better than that.

That was kind of a dated scouting report that I copied, the more recent ones I've read are talking about his super-quick first step and power. He's one thats on the rise and probably will be picked before 14. Lots of time yet.

I believe you are right about Long. Some say he is a one-gap type of player meaning not our type but much more on him later.

That guy I started a thread about a while back who has all the inside info on the Pats scouts had a lot of stuff about Steinbach. We don't need a guard, but he might not end up as one.

Joseph is not really like Taylor, not as slim and quick. I'm not sure if he is ideal for us either, but he can play.

[pookie]

From the little bit of studying I've done, it seems that most of the models have the Pats getting Robertson or Joseph. Both of these guys sound like potential starters in the NFL. They've both got size, although Joseph has the more athletic build and from you pasted Hawg, Joseph can stop the run as well as provide a bull or speed rush.

Originally posted by freak
..for me personally, I always thought he (Womack) was overrated at UVA.

He hurt his knee playing in the senior bowl (I believe) so he has already been rehabing over a year. I agree that it can take well over a year to recover from an ACL but he will have had about 18 months by mini-camp. He should be close to full strength going into next season.

I disagree with you on Womack's potential. He was rated a second rounder last year in a fairly deep draft for RBs (and offense in general) before hurting his knee. He was recruited heavily by both Penn State and UVA. There was a huge controversy that UVA might have violated NCAA regulations to get Womack. He almost certainly comes to us via UVA coach and Former Jets/Pats coach and Belichick friend Al Groh. In other words, Belichick used his favorite draft tactic of tapping his peer network much as he did with Jarvis Green and LSU’s Sabin.

On what do base your opinions? Are you saying that you have seen him play? Not to jump to conclusions but UVA doesn't get a lot of airtime.

The problem with the draft is that everybody and his brother writes a column about the draft, "rates" the talent and puts together a mock draft. I have never done it myself but I could. And I could be so convincing that I could talk you into drafting your own mother if I wanted to -- without ever watching her play. The problem lies in the fact that to do it right means watching tape of virtually every eligible player or better yet seeing them in person – and having an astute eye for talent.

So my point would be -- if you are basing what you write on word of mouth (pardon me if I am wrong) why listen to only the negative side of this opinion? This is taken from NFL.com. They would seem to share your opinion:

“Negatives: Lacks the leg drive to be effective in short yardage or goal line situations… His durability is a big question mark and has also had several legal issues off the field that kept him away from the game (1999), but the coaches say he is a great kid…Has very poor route running ability and does not show the hands needed to be effective catching out of the backfield…Even though he was injured, he did not show at the combines after being invited…Runs too upright and tends to be more of a straight-line runner, despite his cutback skills…Gathers to cut before turning upfield…Ducks his head too much and seems passive when asked to block…Despite his speed, he does not have that extra gear needed to break away into the second level. “

However the site also lists some positives about Womack that you seem to ignore (Also from NFL.com):

“Positives: Shows good in-stride lateral agility and veer quickness…Has the vision and feel needed to weave through traffic…Has a sharp short burst…Protects the ball properly going through trash…Shows aggression facing up to defenders…Has crisp cutback agility and quickly bounces to the outside when the rush lane is filled…Has the pick-and-slide ability to turn the corner.”

Sounds to me like they are decribing an somewhat unpolished instinctive "athlete" with good vision and a slashing style, who can't catch. About right?

This is an exerpt from comparison of Virginia’s two tailbacks in 1998: (See full article at) http://virginiasports.ocsn.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102198aac.html

"Womack is the anxious and excitable understudy. If Jones is the steak, Womack's the sizzle, on and off the field. Supremely confident, and not at all shy. All vision and instinct; find one opening, look for another, and create a third. Elusive, creative, impetuous.

Understandably, the flashy Womack is a fan favorite. His runs command your full attention. The next unexpected cut may break him into the clear (or turn him into the path of a pursuing linebacker). Turn your head, and you may miss something you have never seen before.”

It goes on to say that Thomas Jones was the coach’s favorite because of his attitude. The negatives are there for anyone as are the positives. The point being that it seems to me like you are just regurgitating what you have read so why choose to see only the negatives?

I could just as easily made this post about Larry Johnson because I have read the scouting reports on him as well. However, I have also seen him play a number of times and I don’t see all the negatives there either. In fact to me he looked powerful, well-balanced and quick with surprising ability to cut back. He reminds me of Eddie George. Your assessment of his lack of agility and quickness sounds canned.

In my opinion, if he is there, Belichick will grab Johnson because he is EXACTLY the type of back he likes, powerful, straight-ahead runner, who is also a high-character player, and successful kick returner. See Pass, see Redmond.

In fact I have liked what I saw in Johnson a lot until I realized how much Belichick would like this guy. Then I decided that I hope we don't take him. No matter how much I like Johnson from watching him, nothing stamps the forehead of an RB with "BUST" more than the approval of Belichick and Pioli. However, Johnson is a mid first to early second round pick and that does change the equation in my mind.

[freak]

Originally posted by FallingAlice
William Joseph -- Something tells me he'd be a Jason Taylor type.

How do you figure?

[freak]

NoRespect,

Yes, I have seen Womack play.

While you'd be correct that UVA doesn't get much airtime, I'd qualify it by saying they don't get alot of 'national' airtime.

I was in the Washington, DC area while in the Corps from '98-'01. VaTech, Maryland and UVA all get good local tv coverage, as does the Little 11.

I was never that impressed with Womack. He was okay, nothing more. Contrasted with another runner, Lamont Jordan from Maryland, who I thought was gonna be a stud. I think the Jets got a steal for him in the 2nd round. IMO, he can be the best RB from that draft.

Also contrast that with William Green who I saw alot of (admittedly, I'm a BC fan), and Green blows Womack away as a prospect. Green had an the most unbelievable burst I've ever seen. He was to and through the hole so quickly, and often split not only LBs, but DBs like they were standing still.

I see Womack like this:

Okay size, not huge, not small. Good speed, not blazing, but adequate. Decent power for his size, but he's not even Antowain in that category. Has some wiggle, but isn't elusive.

He's okay at everything, but he doesn't excel at anything.

[Spirit of 76]

I think that the fact that we have J.R. Redmond, who is a 3rd Round pick, on the roster and BB was still considering activating Womack from the PUP list raises some intrigue. If Womack were not capable of making a splash, coming off an injury, I don't think he would have had a second of consideration. He may not be a franchise-type back but, he seems to me to be a guy that can keep getting 3-4 yards a carry and keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Antowain could do the same thing...problem was that he was dancing around in search of a big play when he hadn't even got to the line of scrimmage yet. Tackles for loss can not serve anyone short of Barry Sanders, who could make up for losses a few times over. Now, letting A. Smith continue to run like that could be a fault of the coaching staff or was Smith just not
following directions? Our RB moves in the coming months will answer that question. For now, I am glad to have Womack as an option.

Originally posted by Spirit of 76
I think that the fact that we have J.R. Redmond, who is a 3rd Round pick, on the roster and BB was still considering activating Womack from the PUP list raises some intrigue. If Womack were not capable of making a splash, coming off an injury, I don't think he would have had a second of consideration.

Antowain could do the same thing...problem was that he was dancing around in search of a big play when he hadn't even got to the line of scrimmage yet....Now, letting A. Smith continue to run like that could be a fault of the coaching staff or was Smith just not following directions?

Antowain was a one year solution. Now we are going into our third year with him. They absolutely have to address the RB situation in the off-season. We cannot survive in a division with Ricky Williams, Curtis Martin, and even Travis Henry and continue to expect to get by with Smith. The AFC is loaded at RB with Priest Holmes, Thomlinson, Portis, George, Garner etc. If this season taught us anything is that we have to be able not only to stop the run, we have to be able to run. Smith had one good year in him as a result of a conservative offense committed to running and also to creating space with screens, options, etc. Once they got away from that and spread the offense and singled him out in the backfield they put a premium on talent and they didn't have it.

I don't think the dance was to make a bigger gain as much as to avoid the hit. He had the happy feet at times in 2001 but somehow they were able to overcome it. To me the knock on him is that teams know that once you start to bring your safeties up and really hit him, he will start to dance at the line of scrimmage.

Womack is an unknown right now. If not for the injury he would have probably gone in the second round, maybe early third. Not early enough to be a lock by any means (and there is no such thing at RB) but good enough to potentially surpass anyone else the Pats currently have. The problem that I see with him is the lack of receiving skills. I am hoping the Pats go back to more of an '01 offense and if they do, Womack is not a great fit for it. I think the Pats will address the position early in the draft -- with either the 19th pick or their second rounder. Womack has an excellent chance of contributing as a kick returner. He is fast and he walks the line between being a slashing style runner and being a straight ahead runner.

[freak]

Bump.

It is draft season, folks. Given the Pats' recent free agent moves, and the rest of the NFL, what do you think of my projections as of now?

[Hawg73]

Originally posted by freak
Bump.

It is draft season, folks. Given the Pats' recent free agent moves, and the rest of the NFL, what do you think of my projections as of now?

Looks to me as you are pretty much dead on with what I'm figuring. Other than CB Woolfork who has dropped in most scouts estimation (too green).

Some would argue that the players coming out will tilt the projections towards one postion of another, but after you watch about 20 of these things you find that they seem to have their own internal logic. I'll bet you end up really close with your projections based on recent history.

I find myself wondering who the shockers will be. By that I mean what team reaches for a risky pick and throws everything into a tizzy. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody shoots for a Kyle Boller or Kelley Washington. Maybe even Teyo Johnson in the 1st 13. All of those guys are high upside/risky type prospects and we can only hope that teams figure on grabbing a lesser DL later in a deep year.

There are always a couple of head scratchers every year and that can only help drive good DL's our way. It is a stone lock that we will take a DL with our 1st pick even if we move up IMO. I am praying for some off-the-wall reaches to land us Robertson or
Williams, but would settle for Sullivan. Looks like Rien Long is falling fast and Joseph is questionable by many. Who the hell knows?

My prediction is Kevin Williams at 14 and Eric Steinbach at 19 if we stay put, but that is very much in doubt at this point.

[freak]

Ok......so I started this thread back in January.

What thinks ye now? Accurate? Not? Reasonable? Not?

[Hawg73]

It is looking like your initial projections are still on target. Other than Long who has slid quite a bit, and maybe Woolfork - I wouldn't quibble with this list a bit. I was kind of surprised how little has changed since January. Maybe Suggs and Kennedy slipping a tad and Robertson and Trufant rising a little, but this draft appears a bit more stable and static that some past years. We'll see by tonight.

The only guys I would say have been not commonly associated with the top 13 but could end up there are Boss Bailey and the very outside chance of a shocker in Troy Polamalu (don't laugh - he might be the best player in this draft two years from now)

[freak]

I did make one change to my Top 13....Boller. I was hesitant to make the change, because I don't think he's that good, but I couldn't see a better fit. As for Woolfork, remember, that I had suggested 2 of the big 3 CBs would go. At the time, I wasn't sure if it would be Woolfork or Trufant. As for Long, I thought he might be a wild card, but his workouts did him in.