week 12: running game is saddening

[aceofspaide]

Maroney had 10 carries for 31 yards against the eagles.
Faulk had 2 for 0 yards.

Now i like maroney but he seems better when he has a good partner to split carries.

What do you think that pats should do about improving this running game.

I have thought of a few option they have.

1) draft a high profile RB early in the draft (McFadden)

2) draft a less high profile RB later in the draft (I have thought of ray rice from rutgers)

3) wait and see how sammy morris looks next year

4) Look for a free agent RB to pick up in the off season


My personal choice: Marion Barber's contract is up with the cowboys this year i believe. How sick would it be to get that electric Minnesota duo back together. I am getting tingly just thinking about it.

[Box_O_Rocks]

5) Keep doing what they're doing.

[aceofspaide]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-26-2007 at 07:49 PM
5) Keep doing what they're doing.

well in the spirit of getting better and improving their weaknesses, i decided not to put that option in

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by aceofspaide on 11-26-2007 at 08:19 PM
well in the spirit of getting better and improving their weaknesses, i decided not to put that option in I'm not sure the "need" to get better is as critical as you seem to suggest; per NFL.com, the Pats are no lower than #7 in rushing offense, even after last night's game. I think it's easy to look at one game and say the team is weak in that area, but after 11 games this club is a top 10 team in rushing offense and 11-0.

You can point to Maroney and say he's not performing, but after last night's game he's currently ranked #28 in the NFL and averaging 4.4 yds/carry, all despite time lost due to injury, splitting the work with Morris and Faulk, and being on a dominating passing team. I noted elsewhere how much I like how he is running this season, the kid is changing his "style" (which can't be easy for a RB) and running with more power. McFadden is the flavor of the month, but I'm not prepared to say he's that much of an upgrade over Maroney at the NFL level.

I've asked people to play a team building game as part of the draftnik process, starting with analyzing each position to idenifty where the Pats can and/or should try to upgrade. You might help us all get a handle on the situation by putting together an analysis of the running game - certainly a deeper look than one game's statistics and impressions. :thumb:

[aceofspaide]

Im not saying anything about maroney, I have loved maroney since the day they drafted him (except all that time on IR)

I didn't realize that the pats rushing offense was rated that high, to me it has seemed that it hasn't been that influential but i guess that was a bad perception.

I'm just saying it would be a serious improvement if we could get a 2nd solid back to share carries with him.

I actually agree with you about McFadden, I have seen him play 3 times this year and he looks good but i think his great numbers are do to the fact that he gets the ball like 40 times a game. I was more impressed by his team mate felix jones.

[shirtsleeve]

Just to stimulate the mind, That Andre Callender kid seems pretty effective running, catching, and pass protecting. I see a possibility of a Kevin Faulk replacement there. Thoughts?

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by shirtsleeve on 11-26-2007 at 10:49 PM
Just to stimulate the mind, That Andre Callender kid seems pretty effective running, catching, and pass protecting. I see a possibility of a Kevin Faulk replacement there. Thoughts? I've seen very little of him, but he's getting noticed and I'll be taking a closer look when I start building my draft board.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by aceofspaide on 11-26-2007 at 10:48 PM
Im not saying anything about maroney, I have loved maroney since the day they drafted him (except all that time on IR)

I didn't realize that the pats rushing offense was rated that high, to me it has seemed that it hasn't been that influential but i guess that was a bad perception.

I'm just saying it would be a serious improvement if we could get a 2nd solid back to share carries with him.

I actually agree with you about McFadden, I have seen him play 3 times this year and he looks good but i think his great numbers are do to the fact that he gets the ball like 40 times a game. I was more impressed by his team mate felix jones. McFadden may or may not be a stud in the NFL, I'm just reluctant to use a pick that high on a position with the lowest NFL career life. I've had to do some analysis projects over the years and it's forced me not to take first impressions until I've at least dug into the data and found some support for that impression - there's always a few surprises even if the first impression holds up in the research. :thumb:

[BizarroAnnihilus]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-26-2007 at 06:49 PM
5) Keep doing what they're doing.

6. Agree with Box.

[shirtsleeve]

Originally posted by BizarroAnnihilus* on 11-27-2007 at 12:13 AM
6. Agree with Box.

7.) Look at the position fairly, with an unbiased eye. Look to age of players, injury history, productivity, cost, pending free agency, and flexibility to perform other functions (ST's, other positions, etc) and grade the group and individuals on these values. Then look to free agency and the draft for better value than what is already in place. This is what Belioli do every off season to every player and position on the team.

[BizarroAnnihilus]

Originally posted by shirtsleeve on 11-26-2007 at 11:40 PM
7.) Look at the position fairly, with an unbiased eye. Look to age of players, injury history, productivity, cost, pending free agency, and flexibility to perform other functions (ST's, other positions, etc) and grade the group and individuals on these values. Then look to free agency and the draft for better value than what is already in place. This is what Belioli do every off season to every player and position on the team.

In other words: trust coach.

Perfect answer.

Agree with Box is pretty close to the same thing.

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-27-2007 at 12:01 AM
McFadden may or may not be a stud in the NFL, I'm just reluctant to use a pick that high on a position with the lowest NFL career life. I've had to do some analysis projects over the years and it's forced me not to take first impressions until I've at least dug into the data and found some support for that impression - there's always a few surprises even if the first impression holds up in the research. :thumb:

What is the average career life of RBs vs other positions? Is it really that big a gap?

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by southcarolina* on 11-27-2007 at 10:28 AM
What is the average career life of RBs vs other positions? Is it really that big a gap? Per Parcells a couple weeks back, 4 years. Is the gap that huge? I can't say, but Parcells claimed it was the shortest-lived position. How does this factor into my thinking: #2 can be signed to a six year deal which will be around $60 million based on past deals, if you're going to spend the money, go for the full 6 years and an impact player. For me, only QB, CB, and DL seems to have the potential for production in the $10 million/year range. Ty Warren's contract extension puts him at the $7 million/year level, so we need to find someone who can last 6 years and produce better than Ty.

For folks still confused about this: Reggie Bush was a #2 pick. You can argue that McFadden has the potential to be more productive & durable than Reggie, but is Reggie really that valuable to NO? If yes, can McFadden offer NE the same value? I really hope some other team (Al Davis) has the hots for McFadden and gives the Pats some extra picks.

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-27-2007 at 02:38 PM
Per Parcells a couple weeks back, 4 years. Is the gap that huge? I can't say, but Parcells claimed it was the shortest-lived position. How does this factor into my thinking: #2 can be signed to a six year deal which will be around $60 million based on past deals, if you're going to spend the money, go for the full 6 years and an impact player. For me, only QB, CB, and DL seems to have the potential for production in the $10 million/year range. Ty Warren's contract extension puts him at the $7 million/year level, so we need to find someone who can last 6 years and produce better than Ty.

For folks still confused about this: Reggie Bush was a #2 pick. You can argue that McFadden has the potential to be more productive & durable than Reggie, but is Reggie really that valuable to NO? If yes, can McFadden offer NE the same value? I really hope some other team (Al Davis) has the hots for McFadden and gives the Pats some extra picks.


I found this...i dont know if its true or not, but whatever....

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06pasquino_dynastycalc.php

Position Years
Quarterback 6.96
Running Back 4.35
Wide Receiver 4.54
Tight End 4.98
D Lineman 5.05
Defensive Back 5.51
Linebacker 5.50
Place Kicker 8.33

All Positions 5.33



So RBs play on average about one season less than all other positions combined, less than that if you rule out kickers.


I just dont see that as being a big enough reason not to take a RB, if your team needs a RB, and if one that you covet is available at whichever draft pick you hold.

Do the Patriots NEED a RB? No not really. But they need a QB or another D Lineman even less. They do ( or probably will, once Samuel leaves) need some help in the D Backfield, but how often is a DB worth the 3rd or 4th or 5th pick?

Heres a list of DBs taken in the top 10 of the draft since 2000:

Charles Woodson 4th 1998
Sean Taylor 5th 2004
Terrence Newman 5th 2003
Quentin Jammar 5th 2002
Laron Landry 6th 2007
Pacman Jones 6th 2005
Micheal Huff 7th 2006
Champ Bailey 7th 1999
Donte Whitner 8th 2006
Roy Williams 8th 2002
Antrelle Rolle 8th 2005
Carlos Rogers 9th 2005
DeAngelo Hall 9th 2004
Dunta Hall 10th 2004

Some nice names on this list. is there a top 5-ish type DB in the draft this year?


For comparison heres (the surprisingly short) RB list

Ronnie Brown 2nd 2005
Reggie Bush 2nd 2006
Cedric Benson 4th 2005
Cadilac Williams 5th 2005
Ladanian Tomlinson 5th 2001
Jamal Lewis 5th 2000
Thomas Jones 7th 2000
Adrian Peterson 7th 2007

I didnt realize Tomlinson was drafted 1 spot ahead of Seymour.


I dont know what all this proves :)

Hopefully they will be able to trade the pick and make all this moot.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by southcarolina* on 11-27-2007 at 03:52 PM
Hopefully they will be able to trade the pick and make all this moot. Interesting find, though it does make the point that RB has the lowest average career life if only by a few months. Another way to look at it - most teams carry twice as many DL as RBs, so that makes that DL 5 year shelf life more favorable than straight numbers.

I ranted early and often that SF tanking wasn't the greatest thing for the Pats, so now we speculate on where to use such a high priced pick and agree that the best that could happen is BB swinging a trade down. That is where I can work up some excitement for McFadden, folks that look at Adian Perterson's performance this year will be wanting to see lightening strike twice - that could help the trade back we both want.

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-27-2007 at 05:24 PM
Interesting find, though it does make the point that RB has the lowest average career life if only by a few months. Another way to look at it - most teams carry twice as many DL as RBs, so that makes that DL 5 year shelf life more favorable than straight numbers.

I ranted early and often that SF tanking wasn't the greatest thing for the Pats, so now we speculate on where to use such a high priced pick and agree that the best that could happen is BB swinging a trade down. That is where I can work up some excitement for McFadden, folks that look at Adian Perterson's performance this year will be wanting to see lightening strike twice - that could help the trade back we both want.

I never said i disagreed with you, i was just curious what exactly the numbers were. As far as SF tanking, having a higher draft pick is always more valuable, even if that value is just flexability.They can choose to use the pick. or they can choose trade it. And chances are, someone will trade for the pick, even if the Patriots have to discount it slightly. A mid level first and an additional 2nd or third may not be an "equal" trade, but its more than the Patriots had in the first place.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by southcarolina* on 11-27-2007 at 06:47 PM
I never said i disagreed with you, i was just curious what exactly the numbers were. As far as SF tanking, having a higher draft pick is always more valuable, even if that value is just flexability.They can choose to use the pick. or they can choose trade it. And chances are, someone will trade for the pick, even if the Patriots have to discount it slightly. A mid level first and an additional 2nd or third may not be an "equal" trade, but its more than the Patriots had in the first place. I disagree, that you disagree about our disagreeing you disagreeable curmudgeon...now what the dickens did I just say? :confused:

Until the NFL does something about rookie salaries I must submit that any top 5 pick is almost always going to be a bad place to be. Bob Kraft was quoted around the last draft saying the best value in the draft 10-15, I'm betting the club had SF projected into that range when they made the trade. :banghead:

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 11-27-2007 at 07:00 PM
I disagree, that you disagree about our disagreeing you disagreeable curmudgeon...now what the dickens did I just say? :confused:

Until the NFL does something about rookie salaries I must submit that any top 5 pick is almost always going to be a bad place to be. Bob Kraft was quoted around the last draft saying the best value in the draft 10-15, I'm betting the club had SF projected into that range when they made the trade. :banghead:

Dammit....i dont not disagree with you.

LOL

Someone said it in another thread i think that one of the teams in need of a QB will trade up to get one. Carolina or Chicago or some such team will make a move to get up ahead of Minnesota or Baltimore and grab that franchise QB :)

[carolinatony]

1) draft a high profile RB early in the draft (McFadden)

NO
We need defense next year at LB and CB.We may need WE depensing on if we can sign Moss or not. A upgrade on the OL would help as well. There should be a solid RB in the later rounds to help Maroney and Morris. I believe losing Morris was a killer to the running game and BB is saving maroney for the playoffs.

[Peachhead]

Originally posted by aceofspaide on 11-26-2007 at 07:20 PM


2) draft a less high profile RB later in the draft

I like that option with RB Jacob Hester from LSU.
http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174927&Q_SEASON=2006
I don't like the idea of spending #2 overall on Mcfadden. RBs don't tend to last that long in the league and besides, with Brady at QB hopefully we'll never play a game where an RB has to carry the team to a win.

That's not to say I think we should just stick with what we have. It'd be nice to have an RB who could chew up some major clock time in the second half, and/or give Brady's arm a rest. IMO, Maroney isn't that guy and if Sammy Morris is hurt we still need that type of guy.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by Peachhead on 12-10-2007 at 06:28 PM
I like that option with RB Jacob Hester from LSU.
http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174927&Q_SEASON=2006
I don't like the idea of spending #2 overall on Mcfadden. RBs don't tend to last that long in the league and besides, with Brady at QB hopefully we'll never play a game where an RB has to carry the team to a win.

That's not to say I think we should just stick with what we have. It'd be nice to have an RB who could chew up some major clock time in the second half, and/or give Brady's arm a rest. IMO, Maroney isn't that guy and if Sammy Morris is hurt we still need that type of guy. Hester's a good second day option. I wouldn't mind Boyd from South Carolina in the 7th/FA range either.

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 12-11-2007 at 02:38 AM
. I wouldn't mind Boyd from South Carolina in the 7th/FA range either.

Yuore just saying that to butter me up for something arent you?

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Peachhead on 12-10-2007 at 06:28 PM
I like that option with RB Jacob Hester from LSU.
http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174927&Q_SEASON=2006
I don't like the idea of spending #2 overall on Mcfadden. RBs don't tend to last that long in the league and besides, with Brady at QB hopefully we'll never play a game where an RB has to carry the team to a win.

That's not to say I think we should just stick with what we have. It'd be nice to have an RB who could chew up some major clock time in the second half, and/or give Brady's arm a rest. IMO, Maroney isn't that guy and if Sammy Morris is hurt we still need that type of guy.

Assuming that the Patriots either do not or can not trade down from #2 (if that is where the ultimately are situated) the problem as i see it is that there are not players in the positions of need for the Patriots that would be a value pick at #2. There are no CB's or LB's worthy of being picked that high. They dont need a QB. Letting Moss and/or Stallwworth walk and then turning around and drafting a WR and paying him the same money would be kinda dumb. Perhaps a D lineman would be a good value, but the patriots are just chock full of D lineman. Do they realy want to pay a #2 contract to someone who might not even start? An OT might be value at #2, but thats alot of payroll to be tied up in an O lineman. And there have certainly been enough first round busts O lineman to at least make one wary of picking one at #2.

So that leaves RB. It isnt a glaring need. But it also isnt a position that i think the Patriots are totally set at. I think Maroney is a nice back, and Morris certainly played well above expectations. Neither of them has proved to be completely durable. I dont think that the RB position is set at all.

Having a stud RB to carry the team occasionally might actually prolong Brady's career. And that would be a good thing.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally posted by southcarolina* on 12-11-2007 at 08:55 AM
Assuming that the Patriots either do not or can not trade down from #2 (if that is where the ultimately are situated) the problem as i see it is that there are not players in the positions of need for the Patriots that would be a value pick at #2. There are no CB's or LB's worthy of being picked that high. They dont need a QB. Letting Moss and/or Stallwworth walk and then turning around and drafting a WR and paying him the same money would be kinda dumb. Perhaps a D lineman would be a good value, but the patriots are just chock full of D lineman. Do they realy want to pay a #2 contract to someone who might not even start? An OT might be value at #2, but thats alot of payroll to be tied up in an O lineman. And there have certainly been enough first round busts O lineman to at least make one wary of picking one at #2.

So that leaves RB. It isnt a glaring need. But it also isnt a position that i think the Patriots are totally set at. I think Maroney is a nice back, and Morris certainly played well above expectations. Neither of them has proved to be completely durable. I dont think that the RB position is set at all.

Having a stud RB to carry the team occasionally might actually prolong Brady's career. And that would be a good thing. I thought we had a stud RB? I know there's a lot of media and fan speculation that he's not getting it done, but I'm willing to stand in the minority and say Maroney is doing much better this year.

Where I think people are getting confused is the changes I see in Maroney's running style, he's working on running with more power and not looking to bounce his runs outside every play. This effort to change his style means he's not running as instinctively as he might. I know there's complaints about dancing, but what dancing is there doesn't appear to be an inability to choose which hole will get him outside faster - the way it looked last season - but an effort to avoid penetrating defenders.

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Box_O_Rocks on 12-11-2007 at 04:24 PM
I thought we had a stud RB? I know there's a lot of media and fan speculation that he's not getting it done, but I'm willing to stand in the minority and say Maroney is doing much better this year.

Where I think people are getting confused is the changes I see in Maroney's running style, he's working on running with more power and not looking to bounce his runs outside every play. This effort to change his style means he's not running as instinctively as he might. I know there's complaints about dancing, but what dancing is there doesn't appear to be an inability to choose which hole will get him outside faster - the way it looked last season - but an effort to avoid penetrating defenders.


Everything below should be prefaced by the fact that i think the best course of action would be to trade down, acquire multiple picks for the SF pick, and build the team that way. But i also think that the Patriots may find that hard to do.


Again i will admit i dont get to see every single game, and i dont dislike Maroney, i just question whether he is ever going to be a guy who can carry the ball 20+ times a game. If the Patriots went into next season with him and a healthy Morris as there top 2 RBs i would not be upset.

Im more just trying to figure out who they might take , if the Patriots are forced to or choose to use the SF pick.
The Patriots certainly have proven they can win with Maroney/Morris/Faulk, but it would also be disingenuous to say that the position couldnt be upgraded.
And that doesnt mean that i dont think other positions cant be upgraded also. But there is not LB worthy of a top 5 pick. There is no DB worthy of a top 5 pick. So of the positions that are worthy of that pick, what can the Patriots use the most? Maybe a stud OT, but i dont know if one of those exists this year either, and drafting OL this high can be so hit or miss.

[Tchok13]

I'm a big McFadden fan but I don't think we have the room on RB.
Faulk is signed till forever and has MASSIVE salary cap numbers if cut.
Evans signed through next year
Maroney till 2010
Morris till 2010

[southcarolina]

Originally posted by Tchok13 on 12-18-2007 at 10:55 AM
I'm a big McFadden fan but I don't think we have the room on RB.
Faulk is signed till forever and has MASSIVE salary cap numbers if cut.
Evans signed through next year
Maroney till 2010
Morris till 2010


If they use the SF pick, they are going to have to pay *someone* top 5 money. Might as well be McFadden.


Kevin Faulks 2008 cap hit would be $994,000, which ranks him exactly 18th on the Patriots in terms of 2008 cap hits, if cut after june 1st.

http://www.patscap.com/