Box_O_Rocks
11-24-2007, 11:09 PM
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=301834Look for third-round intrigue in new NFL Draft format
Posted: November 8, 2007
A few weeks ago the NFL announced that, starting with the 2008 Draft, it will shorten the length of the first two rounds and only hold the first two rounds on Day 1, instead of the first three. Much of the attention surrounding these changes has focused on the time it will save, and in particular how the moves will accelerate the sluggish pace of the first round. However, for NFL teams there are other benefits to the changes.
The most interesting thing could be how it affects the success rate of early third-round picks. In past years, players picked early in the fourth round, which kicked off Day 2, often turned out to be some of the better values in the draft. That's because teams were able to restack their boards after Day 1 of the draft and better evaluate their roster situation going into Day 2. Instead of having to make hasty decisions on picks, as they would have in Round 3, teams could put more thought into early fourth-round selections and take care to draft players who were good fits for their roster. Thus, teams often had a better shot at landing a productive starter at the top of the fourth round than they did in the bottom of the third.
The dynamic will change now, though, with the top of the third round becoming the new "sweet spot" of Day 2. Expect to see fewer reaches and bad picks in the third round than you had in past years -- and look for some early third-rounders to potentially surpass the production of their late second-round counterparts. With the overall quality of team's Round 3 selections going up, it will also have a ripple effect on their finances. Although third-rounders don't make close to first-round money, they still demand a good share of cash, and mistakes are still costly. Teams are less likely to draft "busts" in the third round, which means they'll be shelling out less of money to third-rounders who don't develop. That, in turn, will translate to less dead cap space and give teams a little more financial freedom to tweak their rosters.
I also expect the changes the NFL has made to have an impact on draft-day trades. For one, there may be more Day 1 trades, with teams particularly interested in trading down into the top of Round 3. In addition, with less time to make first-round selections (down to 10 minutes per pick, from 15), it will put the squeeze on teams to work quickly and affect the flow of the first round. Teams usually don't make a final decision on trying to swing a trade until the pick before the one they're trying to acquire has been made. At that point, it takes the team's decision-makers one or two minutes to confirm which player they'd target if they made the trade up and offer those involved a final chance to "yay" or "nay" the deal. With the new rules in place, that would now leave teams with only eight minutes to try and get the paperwork done and finalize the deal.
Therefore, for teams to swing a deal in the first round, both trading partners will be forced to be more decisive, which could lead to deals getting done more quickly. That might also make teams more likely to turn their picks in earlier; if they don't have a deal pretty well set about five minutes into their pick, they probably made up their minds to keep the pick.
The shorter time limits to make picks in the first and second rounds could also allow the rich to get richer. Teams whose well-organized draft rooms have led to their perennial success in selecting players could prey upon less organized teams, who may be more inclined to panic into errors given the time crunch. In particular, the "better-drafting" teams may be able to move into the second round more cheaply if "poorer-drafting" teams overvalue third-round picks.The value of third round picks is also likely to go up during trade talks, per GBN (http://www.gbnreport.com/trades.htm) here are the teams with extra third round picks: 3rd round
Buffalo has a #3 from Baltimore (RB Willis McGahee)
Chicago has a #3 from San Diego (2007 draft trade)
New England has a #3 from Oakland (2007 draft trade)
Minnesota has a #3 from Denver (2007 draft trade/ DT Marcus Thomas)
Posted: November 8, 2007
A few weeks ago the NFL announced that, starting with the 2008 Draft, it will shorten the length of the first two rounds and only hold the first two rounds on Day 1, instead of the first three. Much of the attention surrounding these changes has focused on the time it will save, and in particular how the moves will accelerate the sluggish pace of the first round. However, for NFL teams there are other benefits to the changes.
The most interesting thing could be how it affects the success rate of early third-round picks. In past years, players picked early in the fourth round, which kicked off Day 2, often turned out to be some of the better values in the draft. That's because teams were able to restack their boards after Day 1 of the draft and better evaluate their roster situation going into Day 2. Instead of having to make hasty decisions on picks, as they would have in Round 3, teams could put more thought into early fourth-round selections and take care to draft players who were good fits for their roster. Thus, teams often had a better shot at landing a productive starter at the top of the fourth round than they did in the bottom of the third.
The dynamic will change now, though, with the top of the third round becoming the new "sweet spot" of Day 2. Expect to see fewer reaches and bad picks in the third round than you had in past years -- and look for some early third-rounders to potentially surpass the production of their late second-round counterparts. With the overall quality of team's Round 3 selections going up, it will also have a ripple effect on their finances. Although third-rounders don't make close to first-round money, they still demand a good share of cash, and mistakes are still costly. Teams are less likely to draft "busts" in the third round, which means they'll be shelling out less of money to third-rounders who don't develop. That, in turn, will translate to less dead cap space and give teams a little more financial freedom to tweak their rosters.
I also expect the changes the NFL has made to have an impact on draft-day trades. For one, there may be more Day 1 trades, with teams particularly interested in trading down into the top of Round 3. In addition, with less time to make first-round selections (down to 10 minutes per pick, from 15), it will put the squeeze on teams to work quickly and affect the flow of the first round. Teams usually don't make a final decision on trying to swing a trade until the pick before the one they're trying to acquire has been made. At that point, it takes the team's decision-makers one or two minutes to confirm which player they'd target if they made the trade up and offer those involved a final chance to "yay" or "nay" the deal. With the new rules in place, that would now leave teams with only eight minutes to try and get the paperwork done and finalize the deal.
Therefore, for teams to swing a deal in the first round, both trading partners will be forced to be more decisive, which could lead to deals getting done more quickly. That might also make teams more likely to turn their picks in earlier; if they don't have a deal pretty well set about five minutes into their pick, they probably made up their minds to keep the pick.
The shorter time limits to make picks in the first and second rounds could also allow the rich to get richer. Teams whose well-organized draft rooms have led to their perennial success in selecting players could prey upon less organized teams, who may be more inclined to panic into errors given the time crunch. In particular, the "better-drafting" teams may be able to move into the second round more cheaply if "poorer-drafting" teams overvalue third-round picks.The value of third round picks is also likely to go up during trade talks, per GBN (http://www.gbnreport.com/trades.htm) here are the teams with extra third round picks: 3rd round
Buffalo has a #3 from Baltimore (RB Willis McGahee)
Chicago has a #3 from San Diego (2007 draft trade)
New England has a #3 from Oakland (2007 draft trade)
Minnesota has a #3 from Denver (2007 draft trade/ DT Marcus Thomas)