Patriots fighting for last AFC playoff spot

[cdcox]

In the AFC the Steelers, Dolphins, Raiders, Titans and Colts are all looking like probable playoff teams since each has a greater than 80% chance of making the playoffs. Last week I had the Chargers in this illustrious group instead of the Dolphins, but otherwise the picture at the top of the AFC remains unchanged. The final playoff team will in all likelihood come from either the Chargers, Patriots, Donks, or Ravens. The Titans are most likely to get the #1 seed (36%), but Oakland (30%), Miami (18%), and the Colts (12%) still have decent chances.

In the NFC, Atlanta is trying to give life to the Giants, but it isn’t going to happen for the G-men. The battle for home field advantage is still led by Philly 55%, with Tampa 30% and GB 15% still in the fight.

The first number represents the chance of winning the division, the second number represents the chance of making the playoffs as either a division winner or a wildcard, and the third number represents the power rating that my program calculated based on performance so far and used to predict the outcomes of the remaining games.

"NYJ" .025,.068, 18
"MIA" .623,.862, 5
"BUF" 0,.011, 17
"NEP" .352,.39, 12

"PIT" .828,.83, 14
"CIN" 0,0, 32
"CLE" 0,0, 23
"BAL" .172,.208, 19

"HOU" 0,0, 30
"IND” .311,.918, 8
"JAX" 0,.078, 20
"TEN" .689,.964, 10

"KCC" .0,.026, 16
"OAK" .548,.813, 4
"DEN" .215,.385, 9
"SDC" .237,.447, 13

"WAS" 0,0, 22
"DAL" 0,0, 27
"NYG" 0,.179, 15
"PHI" 1,1, 3

"DET" 0,0, 31
"MIN" 0,0, 29
"GBP" 1,1, 2
"CHI" 0,0, 28

"TBB" .957,1, 1
"NOS" .043,.954, 6
“ATL" 0,.867, 11
"CAR" 0,0, 24


"SFF" 1,1, 7
"STL” 0,0, 21
"ARZ" 0,0, 26
"SEA" 0,0, 25

[NEM]

That is not quite factual. Plain and simple, the Pats win their remaining two games, BOTH AT HOME, they are the AFC Division Champs, and, it could be the Dolphins that are out......

Pats and Dolphins both end up at 10-6, Pats own ALL the tiebreakers for the division title.

[cdcox]

NEM: Yes, what you say is correct. In fact, winning the division is the most likely way in which the Pats can make the playoffs. My program does not like your odds at all of making it as a WildCard. Here are the predicted odds of the Patriots finishing in each of the 6 possilbe AFC playoff seeds:

1st seed 0.3%
2nd seed 0.8%
3rd seed 24.1%
4th seed 10.0%
5th seed 0%
6th seed 3.8%


So you are right it that if the Patriots make the playoffs it will probably be as a division winner. I put them in a group fighting for the last playoff spot because (according to my computer predictions) their odds are poorer than Miami's of qualifying for the playoffs in general. Miami still has decent wild card chances if they don't win the division, whereas the Patriots are pretty much needing to win the division.

As everyone knows though, the games are won and lost on the field. The good news for the Pats is that they control their own destiny. If they deserve to make the playoffs, they will be there.

[NEM]

Good job. Well researched and documented. WIN TWO AND WE ARE IN, and that's all that matters.

Tell me, if Miami loses both, at Minnesota and to us, are they out?

[cdcox]

NEM:

No, Miami still has playoff about a 30% chance of making it if they drop the next two. Pretty surprising.